SPC MD 816

MD 0816 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO ADJACENT WEST TX Mesoscale Discussion 0816 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 Areas affected...parts of eastern NM into adjacent west TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212035Z - 212230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop by late afternoon or early evening. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is increasing this afternoon near the higher terrain of east-central NM, and also in the vicinity of a baroclinic zone near the NM/TX border. With only weak to modest large-scale ascent across the region, coverage of storm development may remain relatively isolated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will conditionally support development of robust updrafts. Effective shear of 20-30 kt is only marginally supportive of organized convection, but organized multicells could eventually develop, and supercell or two cannot be ruled out near the baroclinic zone. Large hail and localized strong to severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33320483 34560472 35080461 35370426 35250343 35070291 34630260 34120258 33350257 32630258 32140295 32060370 32270429 32490459 32990479 33320483 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more