SPC MD 813

MD 0813 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST/SOUTHWEST TX Mesoscale Discussion 0813 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 Areas affected...Parts of west/southwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211902Z - 212130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A small supercell has recently developed to the northeast of Midland. With generally weak deep-layer flow noted in regional VWPs, the relative organization of this cell is likely due to locally backed winds and enhanced shear/SRH in the vicinity of a differential heating/baroclinic zone draped from north to east of Midland. This cell and any other cell that can mature within this zone may continue to move southeastward along the boundary, with moderate MLCAPE supporting a threat of large hail. Localized strong to severe gusts may also occur. Additional storms have recently developed near and east/northeast of Fort Stockton. Deep-layer shear is weaker in this region compared to areas farther north near the boundary, but MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg will support at least transient robust updrafts, with a threat of hail and localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32450206 31990082 30969969 30449930 29689954 29550109 29840251 30160276 30530319 30950339 31310335 31580321 32020285 32460252 32450206 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more