SPC MD 747

MD 0747 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN Mesoscale Discussion 0747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171601Z - 171800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce small hail and locally strong wind gusts through early afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern WI this morning near a remnant MCV from overnight convection. This feature will continue to shift east/northeast into the afternoon. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary boundary/warm front is located near the IL/WI border. Current convection remains north of this boundary within the cooler, more stable low-level environment. Nevertheless, modest moisture and enhanced vertical shear near the MCV is supporting weak MUCAPE and enough flow for organized updrafts. Midlevel lapse rates are weak across the region, though may steepen modestly into the afternoon. Given favorable deep layer shear and stronger midlevel flow, isolated strong gusts are possible in addition to small hail. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43199038 43868964 44058894 44008810 43168802 42548892 42478951 42638996 42899032 43199038 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more