SPC MD 806

MD 0806 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TX TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN Mesoscale Discussion 0806 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Areas affected...Parts of the TX Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201953Z - 202200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts may develop later this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...A large area of primarily elevated and disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon from near Lubbock to Midland to west of Del Rio. Moderate MUCAPE and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support occasional intensification of these elevated storms, with a threat for isolated hail. Farther west, storms are gradually increasing in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains, with a continued increase in coverage possible as a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough approaches the region from northern Mexico. Stronger heating has occurred in this area, along/south of a baroclinic zone, and convection in this area could evolve into more organized surface-based storms, with sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell development. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and steep midlevel lapse rates will support potential for large to very large hail, if any surface-based supercells can evolve with time. Localized severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas along/south of the front, where steeper low-level lapse rates are in place. Coverage of severe storms later this afternoon into the early evening remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if development of multiple sustained severe storms appears imminent. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29770462 31010408 31810334 31930206 31870141 31750124 30650096 30220090 29760124 29390228 29260247 29090270 28880311 28830346 29160435 29770462 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more