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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, July 4, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet July 4, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, July 4, 2026

July 3 Results: Strike Picks: 2/3 | Ball Picks: 2/6 | In Play Picks: 2/5 (2 fouled) ❌ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Ball / ❌ Konnor Griffin - Strike / ❌ Trevor Larnach - Ball / ✅ Travis Bazzana - In Play / ✅ A.J. Ewing - Ball / ✅ Drake Baldwin - Strike / ✅ Luis Arraez - Strike / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Jose Altuve - In Play / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ✅ Nick Kurtz - Ball / ✅ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Nathan Lukes - In Play / ❌ J.P. Crawford - Ball

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch In Play Picks

TB @ HOU: Jose Altuve vs Drew Rasmussen — 22.1% (fair odds +352) Altuve 22.1% in-play projection vs Rasmussen (94.8 mph 4-Seam Fastball) | U3.5 hedge 42.4% (avg 3.9 pit)

BAL @ CIN: Gunnar Henderson vs Hunter Greene — 15.1% (fair odds +564) Henderson 15.1% in-play projection vs Greene (99.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball) | U3.5 hedge 42.3% (avg 4.0 pit)

BOS @ LAA: Zach Neto vs Sonny Gray — 15.1% (fair odds +564) Neto 15.1% in-play projection vs Gray (91.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball) | U3.5 hedge 45.4% (avg 3.7 pit)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

PIT @ WSH — 11:05 AM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Carson Palmquist vs Konnor Griffin Projected: First Pitch In Play — 23.3% (fair odds +329)

  • Carson Palmquist: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.2 mph
  • Konnor Griffin: Swing 42.9%, In Play 23.3%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 37.6% (leadoff PA avg 4.3 pitches)

MIN @ NYY — 1:35 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Trent Grisham Projected: First Pitch Strike — 69.9% (fair odds -233)

  • Zebby Matthews: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%
  • Trent Grisham: Swing 17.8%, In Play 5.1%

DET @ TEX — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.2% (fair odds +606)

  • Kumar Rocker: Zone 55.6%, Ball 44.4%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.1 mph
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 34.2%, In Play 14.2%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 45.1% (leadoff PA avg 3.8 pitches)

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jack Flaherty vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.9% (fair odds +113)

  • Jack Flaherty: Zone 53.1%, Ball 46.9%
  • Joc Pederson: Swing 21.1%, In Play 9.6%

TOR @ SEA — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Nathan Lukes Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Logan Gilbert: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph
  • Nathan Lukes: Swing 30.6%, In Play 10.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Shane Bieber vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.8% (fair odds -116)

  • Shane Bieber: Zone 46.2%, Ball 53.8%
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 37.6%, In Play 10.0%

TB @ HOU — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Hunter Brown vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.7% (fair odds +466)

  • Hunter Brown: Zone 74.3%, Ball 25.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.5 mph
  • Yandy Díaz: Swing 33.8%, In Play 17.7%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 34.8% (leadoff PA avg 4.2 pitches)

B1 (Bottom 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Jose Altuve Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.1% (fair odds +352)

  • Drew Rasmussen: Zone 73.9%, Ball 26.1%
  • Jose Altuve: Swing 44.9%, In Play 22.1%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 42.4% (leadoff PA avg 3.9 pitches)

CWS @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sean Burke vs Travis Bazzana Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.3% (fair odds +653)

  • Sean Burke: Zone 60.6%, Ball 39.4%
  • Travis Bazzana: Swing 30.0%, In Play 13.3%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 43.5% (leadoff PA avg 3.7 pitches)

BAL @ CIN — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Hunter Greene vs Gunnar Henderson Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.1% (fair odds +564)

  • Hunter Greene: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 99.0 mph
  • Gunnar Henderson: Swing 37.8%, In Play 15.1%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 42.3% (leadoff PA avg 4.0 pitches)

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Young vs Elly De La Cruz Projected: First Pitch Strike — 68.3% (fair odds -215)

  • Brandon Young: Zone 70.8%, Ball 29.2%
  • Elly De La Cruz: Swing 71.4%, In Play 2.5%

STL @ CHC — 8:08 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shota Imanaga vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.3% (fair odds +601)

  • Shota Imanaga: Zone 55.8%, Ball 44.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.6 mph
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 29.4%, In Play 14.3%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 42.0% (leadoff PA avg 3.9 pitches)

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Leahy vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.6% (fair odds +587)

  • Kyle Leahy: Zone 70.6%, Ball 29.4%
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 34.3%, In Play 14.6%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 42.2% (leadoff PA avg 3.9 pitches)

NYM @ ATL — 8:08 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Chris Sale vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.3% (fair odds -146)

  • Chris Sale: Zone 61.8%, Ball 38.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph
  • Carson Benge: Swing 18.8%, In Play 2.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sean Manaea vs Mauricio Dubón Projected: First Pitch In Play — 28.0% (fair odds +257)

  • Sean Manaea: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%
  • Mauricio Dubón: Swing 38.5%, In Play 28.0%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 38.3% (leadoff PA avg 4.0 pitches)

PHI @ KC — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Michael Wacha vs Trea Turner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.2% (fair odds -157)

  • Michael Wacha: Zone 73.9%, Ball 26.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.7 mph
  • Trea Turner: Swing 25.3%, In Play 12.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Carter Jensen Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.7% (fair odds +407)

  • Jesús Luzardo: Zone 69.4%, Ball 30.6%
  • Carter Jensen: Swing 48.0%, In Play 19.7%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 45.3% (leadoff PA avg 3.6 pitches)

BOS @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sam Aldegheri vs Nate Eaton Projected: First Pitch Ball — 57.1% (fair odds -133)

  • Sam Aldegheri: Zone 42.9%, Ball 57.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.6 mph
  • Nate Eaton: Swing 50.0%, In Play 4.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sonny Gray vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.1% (fair odds +564)

  • Sonny Gray: Zone 72.3%, Ball 27.7%
  • Zach Neto: Swing 53.7%, In Play 15.1%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 45.4% (leadoff PA avg 3.7 pitches)

MIL @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Woodruff vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.2% (fair odds +350)

  • Brandon Woodruff: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 32.1%, In Play 22.2%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 40.9% (leadoff PA avg 3.8 pitches)

MIA @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs Nick Kurtz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.7% (fair odds +466)

  • Sandy Alcantara: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%
  • Nick Kurtz: Swing 37.5%, In Play 17.7%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 49.6% (leadoff PA avg 3.6 pitches)

SD @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.4% (fair odds +415)

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Zone 68.0%, Ball 32.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.5 mph
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.0%, In Play 19.4%
  • Hedge: U3.5 pitches 39.9% (leadoff PA avg 4.1 pitches)

B1 (Bottom 1st): Griffin Canning vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.0% (fair odds +108)

  • Griffin Canning: Zone 52.0%, Ball 48.0%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 23.8%, In Play 7.2%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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