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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 17, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 17, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 17, 2026

May 16 Results: Strike Picks: 5/7 | Ball Picks: 1/7 | In Play Picks: 1/7

✅ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Maikel Garcia - Ball / ❌ Masyn Winn - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Willi Castro - Ball / ✅ Gunnar Henderson - Strike / ❌ James Wood - Strike / ❌ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ Oneil Cruz - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - In Play / ✅ Dane Myers - In Play / ✅ Joc Pederson - Strike / ❌ Jose Altuve - In Play / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ❌ Austin Martin - In Play / ❌ Jackson Merrill - Ball / ❌ J.P. Crawford - Ball / ❌ Jarren Duran - Ball / ✅ Ben Rice - Ball / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

What was FanDuel thinking 🤯 ✅ Dane Myers - In Play at +2000 straight odds!!

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch In Play Picks

TEX @ HOU: Jose Altuve vs Nathan Eovaldi — 30.6% (fair odds +227) Altuve 30.6% in-play projection vs Eovaldi (94.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

ARI @ COL: Ketel Marte vs Michael Lorenzen — 19.0% (fair odds +425) Marte 19.0% in-play projection vs Lorenzen (93.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

BAL @ WSH: James Wood vs Brandon Young — 15.8% (fair odds +533) Wood 15.8% in-play projection vs Young (93.6 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

MIA @ TB — 12:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.5% (fair odds +588)

  • Drew Rasmussen: Zone 71.8%, Ball 28.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph
  • Xavier Edwards: Swing 30.2%, In Play 14.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Eury Pérez vs Chandler Simpson Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.2% (fair odds -123)

  • Eury Pérez: Zone 44.8%, Ball 55.2%
  • Chandler Simpson: Swing 18.9%, In Play 8.6%

PHI @ PIT — 1:35 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zack Wheeler vs Oneil Cruz Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.0% (fair odds -156)

  • Zack Wheeler: Zone 67.9%, Ball 32.1%
  • Oneil Cruz: Swing 47.1%, In Play 6.9%

BOS @ ATL — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Grant Holmes vs Jarren Duran Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.2% (fair odds -123)

  • Grant Holmes: Zone 44.8%, Ball 55.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
  • Jarren Duran: Swing 26.9%, In Play 7.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brayan Bello vs Drake Baldwin Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.6% (fair odds -175)

  • Brayan Bello: Zone 77.1%, Ball 22.9%
  • Drake Baldwin: Swing 33.3%, In Play 13.5%

BAL @ WSH — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Miles Mikolas vs Gunnar Henderson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.6% (fair odds -148)

  • Miles Mikolas: Zone 73.0%, Ball 27.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.4 mph
  • Gunnar Henderson: Swing 36.4%, In Play 13.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Young vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.8% (fair odds +533)

  • Brandon Young: Zone 64.7%, Ball 35.3%
  • James Wood: Swing 36.2%, In Play 15.8%

NYY @ NYM — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Freddy Peralta vs Ben Rice Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.2% (fair odds +559)

  • Freddy Peralta: Zone 55.6%, Ball 44.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
  • Ben Rice: Swing 23.8%, In Play 15.2%

TOR @ DET — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jack Flaherty vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.6% (fair odds +110)

  • Jack Flaherty: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.6 mph
  • George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 5.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kevin Gausman vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.2% (fair odds +448)

  • Kevin Gausman: Zone 65.2%, Ball 34.8%
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 28.6%, In Play 18.2%

CHC @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Colin Rea vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.8% (fair odds -148)

  • Colin Rea: Zone 69.7%, Ball 30.3%
  • Sam Antonacci: Swing 22.2%, In Play 9.9%

TEX @ HOU — 2:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Nathan Eovaldi vs Jose Altuve Projected: First Pitch In Play — 30.6% (fair odds +227)

  • Nathan Eovaldi: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%
  • Jose Altuve: Swing 47.6%, In Play 30.6%

KC @ STL — 2:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Andre Pallante vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.2% (fair odds +116)

  • Andre Pallante: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph
  • Maikel Garcia: Swing 28.9%, In Play 9.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Stephen Kolek vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.0% (fair odds -138)

  • Stephen Kolek: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 34.3%, In Play 13.4%

ARI @ COL — 3:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Michael Lorenzen vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.0% (fair odds +425)

  • Michael Lorenzen: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.0 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 34.8%, In Play 19.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Soroka vs Edouard Julien Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.2% (fair odds +605)

  • Michael Soroka: Zone 64.0%, Ball 36.0%
  • Edouard Julien: Swing 37.5%, In Play 14.2%

SF @ OAK — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jeffrey Springs vs Heliot Ramos Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.3% (fair odds -105)

  • Jeffrey Springs: Zone 48.7%, Ball 51.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.0 mph
  • Heliot Ramos: Swing 35.6%, In Play 12.3%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Adrian Houser vs Nick Kurtz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.0% (fair odds +568)

  • Adrian Houser: Zone 65.5%, Ball 34.5%
  • Nick Kurtz: Swing 40.0%, In Play 15.0%

LAD @ LAA — 4:07 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Roki Sasaki vs Vaughn Grissom Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.7% (fair odds +114)

  • Roki Sasaki: Zone 53.3%, Ball 46.7%
  • Vaughn Grissom: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%

SD @ SEA — 7:20 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Lucas Giolito vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.0% (fair odds -138)

  • Lucas Giolito: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 36.6%, In Play 11.2%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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