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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for July 4, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-july-4-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-07-04T15:25:06.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, July 4, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **July 3 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 2/3 | Ball Picks: 2/6 | In Play Picks: 2/5 (2 fouled)\n> ❌ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Ball / ❌ Konnor Griffin - Strike / ❌ Trevor Larnach - Ball / ✅ Travis Bazzana - In Play / ✅ A.J. Ewing - Ball / ✅ Drake Baldwin - Strike / ✅ Luis Arraez - Strike / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Jose Altuve - In Play / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ✅ Nick Kurtz - Ball / ✅ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Nathan Lukes - In Play / ❌ J.P. Crawford - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n### Winning Slips 💰\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **TB @ HOU: Jose Altuve vs Drew Rasmussen — 22.1% (fair odds +352)**\n>  Altuve 22.1% in-play projection vs Rasmussen (94.8 mph 4-Seam Fastball) | U3.5 hedge 42.4% (avg 3.9 pit)\n\n> **BAL @ CIN: Gunnar Henderson vs Hunter Greene — 15.1% (fair odds +564)**\n>  Henderson 15.1% in-play projection vs Greene (99.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball) | U3.5 hedge 42.3% (avg 4.0 pit)\n\n> **BOS @ LAA: Zach Neto vs Sonny Gray — 15.1% (fair odds +564)**\n>  Neto 15.1% in-play projection vs Gray (91.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball) | U3.5 hedge 45.4% (avg 3.7 pit)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### PIT @ WSH — 11:05 AM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Carson Palmquist vs Konnor Griffin**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 23.3%** (fair odds +329)\n\n  * Carson Palmquist: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.2 mph\n  * Konnor Griffin: Swing 42.9%, In Play 23.3%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 37.6% (leadoff PA avg 4.3 pitches)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIN @ NYY — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Trent Grisham**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 69.9%** (fair odds -233)\n\n  * Zebby Matthews: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%\n  * Trent Grisham: Swing 17.8%, In Play 5.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### DET @ TEX — 4:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Kevin McGonigle**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.2%** (fair odds +606)\n\n  * Kumar Rocker: Zone 55.6%, Ball 44.4%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.1 mph\n  * Kevin McGonigle: Swing 34.2%, In Play 14.2%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 45.1% (leadoff PA avg 3.8 pitches)\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jack Flaherty vs Joc Pederson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.9%** (fair odds +113)\n\n  * Jack Flaherty: Zone 53.1%, Ball 46.9%\n  * Joc Pederson: Swing 21.1%, In Play 9.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TOR @ SEA — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Nathan Lukes**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Logan Gilbert: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph\n  * Nathan Lukes: Swing 30.6%, In Play 10.8%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Shane Bieber vs J.P. Crawford**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 53.8%** (fair odds -116)\n\n  * Shane Bieber: Zone 46.2%, Ball 53.8%\n  * J.P. Crawford: Swing 37.6%, In Play 10.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TB @ HOU — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Hunter Brown vs Yandy Díaz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.7%** (fair odds +466)\n\n  * Hunter Brown: Zone 74.3%, Ball 25.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.5 mph\n  * Yandy Díaz: Swing 33.8%, In Play 17.7%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 34.8% (leadoff PA avg 4.2 pitches)\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Jose Altuve**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.1%** (fair odds +352)\n\n  * Drew Rasmussen: Zone 73.9%, Ball 26.1%\n  * Jose Altuve: Swing 44.9%, In Play 22.1%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 42.4% (leadoff PA avg 3.9 pitches)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CWS @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Sean Burke vs Travis Bazzana**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 13.3%** (fair odds +653)\n\n  * Sean Burke: Zone 60.6%, Ball 39.4%\n  * Travis Bazzana: Swing 30.0%, In Play 13.3%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 43.5% (leadoff PA avg 3.7 pitches)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BAL @ CIN — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Hunter Greene vs Gunnar Henderson**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.1%** (fair odds +564)\n\n  * Hunter Greene: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 99.0 mph\n  * Gunnar Henderson: Swing 37.8%, In Play 15.1%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 42.3% (leadoff PA avg 4.0 pitches)\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Young vs Elly De La Cruz**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 68.3%** (fair odds -215)\n\n  * Brandon Young: Zone 70.8%, Ball 29.2%\n  * Elly De La Cruz: Swing 71.4%, In Play 2.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### STL @ CHC — 8:08 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Shota Imanaga vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.3%** (fair odds +601)\n\n  * Shota Imanaga: Zone 55.8%, Ball 44.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.6 mph\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 29.4%, In Play 14.3%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 42.0% (leadoff PA avg 3.9 pitches)\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Leahy vs Pete Crow-Armstrong**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.6%** (fair odds +587)\n\n  * Kyle Leahy: Zone 70.6%, Ball 29.4%\n  * Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 34.3%, In Play 14.6%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 42.2% (leadoff PA avg 3.9 pitches)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYM @ ATL — 8:08 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Chris Sale vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 59.3%** (fair odds -146)\n\n  * Chris Sale: Zone 61.8%, Ball 38.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 18.8%, In Play 2.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Sean Manaea vs Mauricio Dubón**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 28.0%** (fair odds +257)\n\n  * Sean Manaea: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%\n  * Mauricio Dubón: Swing 38.5%, In Play 28.0%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 38.3% (leadoff PA avg 4.0 pitches)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PHI @ KC — 8:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Michael Wacha vs Trea Turner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 61.2%** (fair odds -157)\n\n  * Michael Wacha: Zone 73.9%, Ball 26.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.7 mph\n  * Trea Turner: Swing 25.3%, In Play 12.7%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Carter Jensen**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.7%** (fair odds +407)\n\n  * Jesús Luzardo: Zone 69.4%, Ball 30.6%\n  * Carter Jensen: Swing 48.0%, In Play 19.7%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 45.3% (leadoff PA avg 3.6 pitches)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BOS @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Sam Aldegheri vs Nate Eaton**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 57.1%** (fair odds -133)\n\n  * Sam Aldegheri: Zone 42.9%, Ball 57.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.6 mph\n  * Nate Eaton: Swing 50.0%, In Play 4.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Sonny Gray vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.1%** (fair odds +564)\n\n  * Sonny Gray: Zone 72.3%, Ball 27.7%\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 53.7%, In Play 15.1%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 45.4% (leadoff PA avg 3.7 pitches)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIL @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Woodruff vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.2%** (fair odds +350)\n\n  * Brandon Woodruff: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 32.1%, In Play 22.2%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 40.9% (leadoff PA avg 3.8 pitches)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIA @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs Nick Kurtz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.7%** (fair odds +466)\n\n  * Sandy Alcantara: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%\n  * Nick Kurtz: Swing 37.5%, In Play 17.7%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 49.6% (leadoff PA avg 3.6 pitches)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SD @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Fernando Tatis Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.4%** (fair odds +415)\n\n  * Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Zone 68.0%, Ball 32.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.5 mph\n  * Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.0%, In Play 19.4%\n  * Hedge: U3.5 pitches 39.9% (leadoff PA avg 4.1 pitches)\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Griffin Canning vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 48.0%** (fair odds +108)\n\n  * Griffin Canning: Zone 52.0%, Ball 48.0%\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 23.8%, In Play 7.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, July 4, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-07-04T15:25:07.639Z"
}