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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 16, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Tuesday, June 16, 2026

June 15 Results: Strike Picks: 2/4 | Ball Picks: 2/3 | In Play Picks: 0/8 (3 fouled)

❌ Liam Hicks - Strike / ✅ Kyle Schwarber - Strike / ❌ Lane Thomas - In Play / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Ball / ✅ Blake Dunn - Strike / ✅ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball / ❌ Austin Martin - In Play / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Ketel Marte - Ball / ❌ Spencer Horwitz - Strike / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - In Play

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch In Play Picks

CWS @ NYY: Ben Rice vs Davis Martin — 21.4% (fair odds +368) Rice 21.4% in-play projection vs Martin (92.7 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

DET @ HOU: Kevin McGonigle vs Hunter Brown — 20.4% (fair odds +391) McGonigle 20.4% in-play projection vs Brown (96.6 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

COL @ CHC: Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Ryan Feltner — 15.6% (fair odds +539) Crow-Armstrong 15.6% in-play projection vs Feltner (93.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

MIA @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.0% (fair odds +456)

Jesús Luzardo: Zone 68.1%, Ball 31.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.3 mph
Xavier Edwards: Swing 28.1%, In Play 18.0%

KC @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Foster Griffin vs Lane Thomas Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.5% (fair odds -167)

Foster Griffin: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.1 mph
Lane Thomas: Swing 42.9%, In Play 1.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Wacha vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 21.3% (fair odds +370)

Michael Wacha: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%
James Wood: Swing 32.5%, In Play 21.3%

TOR @ BOS — 6:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Payton Tolle vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch In Play — 30.7% (fair odds +226)

Payton Tolle: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.8 mph
George Springer: Swing 29.2%, In Play 30.7%

CWS @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Davis Martin vs Ben Rice Projected: First Pitch In Play — 21.4% (fair odds +368)

Davis Martin: Zone 65.8%, Ball 34.2%
Ben Rice: Swing 25.0%, In Play 21.4%

NYM @ CIN — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brady Singer vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.6% (fair odds -160)

Brady Singer: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 92.5 mph
Carson Benge: Swing 14.8%, In Play 5.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kodai Senga vs Blake Dunn Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.3% (fair odds -146)

Kodai Senga: Zone 59.3%, Ball 40.7%
Blake Dunn: Swing 13.3%, In Play 0.0%

SF @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Grant Holmes vs Luis Arraez Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Grant Holmes: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
Luis Arraez: Swing 12.5%, In Play 5.0%

CLE @ MIL — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Robert Gasser vs Angel Martínez Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Robert Gasser: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.2 mph
Angel Martínez: Swing 23.1%, In Play 5.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Slade Cecconi vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.5% (fair odds -153)

Slade Cecconi: Zone 60.5%, Ball 39.5%
Christian Yelich: Swing 10.0%, In Play 0.0%

SD @ STL — 7:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Andre Pallante vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Andre Pallante: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.1 mph
Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 36.7%, In Play 12.9%

COL @ CHC — 8:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Edward Cabrera vs Edouard Julien Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.1% (fair odds -144)

Edward Cabrera: Zone 70.3%, Ball 29.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.3 mph
Edouard Julien: Swing 34.9%, In Play 11.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Ryan Feltner vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.6% (fair odds +539)

Ryan Feltner: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 30.8%, In Play 15.6%

MIN @ TEX — 8:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Trevor Larnach Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.2% (fair odds +116)

Kumar Rocker: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.1 mph
Trevor Larnach: Swing 36.4%, In Play 12.3%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.8% (fair odds -155)

Zebby Matthews: Zone 77.3%, Ball 22.7%
Joc Pederson: Swing 21.4%, In Play 16.5%

DET @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Hunter Brown vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 20.4% (fair odds +391)

Hunter Brown: Zone 78.8%, Ball 21.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.6 mph
Kevin McGonigle: Swing 32.1%, In Play 20.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Framber Valdez vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 26.1% (fair odds +283)

Framber Valdez: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%
Jeremy Peña: Swing 40.7%, In Play 26.1%

BAL @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Logan Gilbert: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.1 mph
Taylor Ward: Swing 27.7%, In Play 8.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Young vs Cole Young Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.0% (fair odds -171)

Brandon Young: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%
Cole Young: Swing 37.5%, In Play 9.7%

PIT @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jack Perkins vs Spencer Horwitz Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Jack Perkins: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
Spencer Horwitz: Swing 22.9%, In Play 1.5%

LAA @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Reid Detmers vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.2% (fair odds +516)

Reid Detmers: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%
Ketel Marte: Swing 32.6%, In Play 16.2%

TB @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Justin Wrobleski vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.2% (fair odds +116)

Justin Wrobleski: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.4 mph
Yandy Díaz: Swing 26.7%, In Play 14.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.8% (fair odds -184)

Drew Rasmussen: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%
Shohei Ohtani: Swing 23.8%, In Play 10.2%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.