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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, July 3, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet July 3, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, July 3, 2026

July 2 Results: Strike Picks: 1/2 | Ball Picks: 3/6 | In Play Picks: 1/5 (0 fouled)

❌ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ Elly De La Cruz - Ball / ✅ Christian Yelich - Ball / ✅ Liam Hicks - Strike / ❌ Jake McCarthy - In Play / ❌ Travis Bazzana - In Play / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - In Play / ✅ Drake Baldwin - Ball / ✅ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ✅ J.P. Crawford - Ball / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 13-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch In Play Picks

STL @ CHC: JJ Wetherholt vs David Peterson — 18.2% (fair odds +448) Wetherholt 18.2% in-play projection vs Peterson (91.3 mph Sinker)

TB @ HOU: Jeremy Peña vs Nick Martinez — 22.6% (fair odds +342) Peña 22.6% in-play projection vs Martinez (92.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

MIL @ ARI: Ketel Marte vs Kyle Harrison — 31.7% (fair odds +215) Marte 31.7% in-play projection vs Harrison (94.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

STL @ CHC — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): David Peterson vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.2% (fair odds +448)

  • David Peterson: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.3 mph
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 31.2%, In Play 18.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Andre Pallante vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Andre Pallante: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 32.4%, In Play 6.0%

PIT @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Foster Griffin vs Konnor Griffin Projected: First Pitch Strike — 67.1% (fair odds -204)

  • Foster Griffin: Zone 68.8%, Ball 31.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.0 mph
  • Konnor Griffin: Swing 50.0%, In Play 1.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Mitch Keller vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.5% (fair odds +642)

  • Mitch Keller: Zone 60.4%, Ball 39.6%
  • James Wood: Swing 31.4%, In Play 13.5%

MIN @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Gerrit Cole vs Trevor Larnach Projected: First Pitch Ball — 66.7% (fair odds -200)

  • Gerrit Cole: Zone 33.3%, Ball 66.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.5 mph
  • Trevor Larnach: Swing 38.2%, In Play 8.4%

BAL @ CIN — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Trevor Rogers vs Blake Dunn Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.6% (fair odds -175)

  • Trevor Rogers: Zone 63.6%, Ball 36.4%
  • Blake Dunn: Swing 9.1%, In Play 0.0%

CWS @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Anthony Kay vs Travis Bazzana Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.7% (fair odds +580)

  • Anthony Kay: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%
  • Travis Bazzana: Swing 25.0%, In Play 14.7%

NYM @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Grant Holmes vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.4% (fair odds -106)

  • Grant Holmes: Zone 48.6%, Ball 51.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
  • Carson Benge: Swing 14.3%, In Play 2.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Christian Scott vs Drake Baldwin Projected: First Pitch Strike — 67.2% (fair odds -205)

  • Christian Scott: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%
  • Drake Baldwin: Swing 30.8%, In Play 2.8%

SF @ COL — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Feltner vs Luis Arraez Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.9% (fair odds -143)

  • Ryan Feltner: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.2 mph
  • Luis Arraez: Swing 5.0%, In Play 3.6%

TB @ HOU — 8:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 20.4% (fair odds +391)

  • Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.1 mph
  • Yandy Díaz: Swing 32.8%, In Play 20.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Nick Martinez vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.6% (fair odds +342)

  • Nick Martinez: Zone 73.8%, Ball 26.2%
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.8%, In Play 22.6%

BOS @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Reid Detmers vs Nate Eaton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.5% (fair odds +642)

  • Reid Detmers: Zone 56.2%, Ball 43.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph
  • Nate Eaton: Swing 44.4%, In Play 13.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jake Bennett vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Jake Bennett: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Zach Neto: Swing 53.7%, In Play 18.5%

MIA @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jack Perkins vs Liam Hicks Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.5% (fair odds -167)

  • Jack Perkins: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph
  • Liam Hicks: Swing 13.3%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Phillips vs Henry Bolte Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Tyler Phillips: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Henry Bolte: Swing 50.0%, In Play 6.5%

MIL @ ARI — 9:45 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Harrison vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 31.7% (fair odds +215)

  • Kyle Harrison: Zone 95.0%, Ball 5.0%
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 31.5%, In Play 31.7%

SD @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shohei Ohtani vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.7% (fair odds +500)

  • Shohei Ohtani: Zone 56.7%, Ball 43.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.2%, In Play 16.7%

TOR @ SEA — 10:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Dylan Cease vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.1% (fair odds -104)

  • Dylan Cease: Zone 48.9%, Ball 51.1%
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 37.0%, In Play 9.4%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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