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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, May 14, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 14, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, May 14, 2026

May 13 Results: Strike Picks: 1/2 | Ball Picks: 2/6 | In Play Picks: 2/7

+2200 Byron Buxton First Pitch Homerun +850 Shea Langeliers First Pitch Lineout

❌ Trent Grisham - Strike / ❌ Taylor Ward - In Play / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Kyle Schwarber - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - Ball / ✅ Mauricio Dubón - Ball / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ✅ Byron Buxton - In Play / ❌ Jackson Merrill - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ✅ J.P. Crawford - Ball / ❌ Jose Altuve - Ball / ✅ Shea Langeliers - In Play / ❌ Jung Hoo Lee - Ball

See full track record →

Winning In Play ( ) Slips💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 11-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

CHC @ ATL: Drake Baldwin vs Ben Brown — 68.8% (fair odds -221) Brown 68.8% ball rate, Baldwin 40.0% swing tendency

STL @ OAK: JJ Wetherholt vs Jacob Lopez — 54.2% (fair odds -118) Lopez 54.2% ball rate, Wetherholt 34.1% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

STL @ OAK: Nick Kurtz vs Michael McGreevy — 22.6% (fair odds +342) Kurtz 22.6% in-play projection vs McGreevy (92.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

WSH @ CIN — 12:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Chase Burns vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Chase Burns: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 98.1 mph
James Wood: Swing 33.9%, In Play 9.1%

SD @ MIL — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Harrison vs Jackson Merrill Projected: First Pitch Strike — 76.1% (fair odds -319)

Kyle Harrison: Zone 92.3%, Ball 7.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.1 mph
Jackson Merrill: Swing 77.8%, In Play 16.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Griffin Canning vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Griffin Canning: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
Jackson Chourio: Swing 44.4%, In Play 10.7%

MIA @ MIN — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.9% (fair odds -143)

Zebby Matthews: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.0 mph
Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.9%, In Play 16.1%

SEA @ HOU — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Mike Burrows vs Brendan Donovan Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.9% (fair odds -108)

Mike Burrows: Zone 48.1%, Ball 51.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph
Brendan Donovan: Swing 35.2%, In Play 12.3%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Luis Castillo vs Jose Altuve Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.6% (fair odds +410)

Luis Castillo: Zone 59.5%, Ball 40.5%
Jose Altuve: Swing 47.6%, In Play 19.6%

STL @ OAK — 3:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Lopez vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Ball — 54.2% (fair odds -118)

Jacob Lopez: Zone 45.8%, Ball 54.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph
JJ Wetherholt: Swing 34.1%, In Play 8.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael McGreevy vs Nick Kurtz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.6% (fair odds +342)

Michael McGreevy: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%
Nick Kurtz: Swing 42.1%, In Play 22.6%

PHI @ BOS — 6:45 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Jarren Duran Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.1% (fair odds +661)

Jesús Luzardo: Zone 63.4%, Ball 36.6%
Jarren Duran: Swing 27.8%, In Play 13.1%

CHC @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Ben Brown vs Drake Baldwin Projected: First Pitch Ball — 68.8% (fair odds -221)

Ben Brown: Zone 31.2%, Ball 68.8%
Drake Baldwin: Swing 40.0%, In Play 1.4%

KC @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Anthony Kay vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Anthony Kay: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.3 mph
Maikel Garcia: Swing 28.0%, In Play 13.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kris Bubic vs Chase Meidroth Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.4% (fair odds +510)

Kris Bubic: Zone 60.7%, Ball 39.3%
Chase Meidroth: Swing 28.9%, In Play 16.4%

SF @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Emmet Sheehan vs Jung Hoo Lee Projected: First Pitch Ball — 57.9% (fair odds -138)

Emmet Sheehan: Zone 42.1%, Ball 57.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.9 mph
Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 18.5%, In Play 5.3%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.