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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for July 3, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-july-3-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-07-03T15:34:31.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, July 3, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **July 2 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 1/2 | Ball Picks: 3/6 | In Play Picks: 1/5 (0 fouled)\n>\n> ❌ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ Elly De La Cruz - Ball / ✅ Christian Yelich - Ball / ✅ Liam Hicks - Strike / ❌ Jake McCarthy - In Play / ❌ Travis Bazzana - In Play / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - In Play / ✅ Drake Baldwin - Ball / ✅ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ✅ J.P. Crawford - Ball / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n### Winning Slips 💰\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 13-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **STL @ CHC: JJ Wetherholt vs David Peterson — 18.2% (fair odds +448)**\n>  Wetherholt 18.2% in-play projection vs Peterson (91.3 mph Sinker)\n\n> **TB @ HOU: Jeremy Peña vs Nick Martinez — 22.6% (fair odds +342)**\n>  Peña 22.6% in-play projection vs Martinez (92.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **MIL @ ARI: Ketel Marte vs Kyle Harrison — 31.7% (fair odds +215)**\n>  Marte 31.7% in-play projection vs Harrison (94.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### STL @ CHC — 4:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): David Peterson vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.2%** (fair odds +448)\n\n  * David Peterson: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.3 mph\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 31.2%, In Play 18.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Andre Pallante vs Pete Crow-Armstrong**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Andre Pallante: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%\n  * Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 32.4%, In Play 6.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PIT @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Foster Griffin vs Konnor Griffin**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 67.1%** (fair odds -204)\n\n  * Foster Griffin: Zone 68.8%, Ball 31.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.0 mph\n  * Konnor Griffin: Swing 50.0%, In Play 1.7%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Mitch Keller vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 13.5%** (fair odds +642)\n\n  * Mitch Keller: Zone 60.4%, Ball 39.6%\n  * James Wood: Swing 31.4%, In Play 13.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIN @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Gerrit Cole vs Trevor Larnach**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 66.7%** (fair odds -200)\n\n  * Gerrit Cole: Zone 33.3%, Ball 66.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.5 mph\n  * Trevor Larnach: Swing 38.2%, In Play 8.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BAL @ CIN — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Trevor Rogers vs Blake Dunn**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 63.6%** (fair odds -175)\n\n  * Trevor Rogers: Zone 63.6%, Ball 36.4%\n  * Blake Dunn: Swing 9.1%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CWS @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Anthony Kay vs Travis Bazzana**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.7%** (fair odds +580)\n\n  * Anthony Kay: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%\n  * Travis Bazzana: Swing 25.0%, In Play 14.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYM @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Grant Holmes vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 51.4%** (fair odds -106)\n\n  * Grant Holmes: Zone 48.6%, Ball 51.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 14.3%, In Play 2.7%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Christian Scott vs Drake Baldwin**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 67.2%** (fair odds -205)\n\n  * Christian Scott: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%\n  * Drake Baldwin: Swing 30.8%, In Play 2.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ COL — 8:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Feltner vs Luis Arraez**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 58.9%** (fair odds -143)\n\n  * Ryan Feltner: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.2 mph\n  * Luis Arraez: Swing 5.0%, In Play 3.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TB @ HOU — 8:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs Yandy Díaz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 20.4%** (fair odds +391)\n\n  * Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.1 mph\n  * Yandy Díaz: Swing 32.8%, In Play 20.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Nick Martinez vs Jeremy Peña**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.6%** (fair odds +342)\n\n  * Nick Martinez: Zone 73.8%, Ball 26.2%\n  * Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.8%, In Play 22.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BOS @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Reid Detmers vs Nate Eaton**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 13.5%** (fair odds +642)\n\n  * Reid Detmers: Zone 56.2%, Ball 43.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph\n  * Nate Eaton: Swing 44.4%, In Play 13.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jake Bennett vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Jake Bennett: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 53.7%, In Play 18.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIA @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jack Perkins vs Liam Hicks**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 62.5%** (fair odds -167)\n\n  * Jack Perkins: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph\n  * Liam Hicks: Swing 13.3%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Phillips vs Henry Bolte**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Tyler Phillips: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%\n  * Henry Bolte: Swing 50.0%, In Play 6.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIL @ ARI — 9:45 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Harrison vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 31.7%** (fair odds +215)\n\n  * Kyle Harrison: Zone 95.0%, Ball 5.0%\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 31.5%, In Play 31.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SD @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Shohei Ohtani vs Fernando Tatis Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.7%** (fair odds +500)\n\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Zone 56.7%, Ball 43.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph\n  * Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.2%, In Play 16.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TOR @ SEA — 10:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Dylan Cease vs J.P. Crawford**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 51.1%** (fair odds -104)\n\n  * Dylan Cease: Zone 48.9%, Ball 51.1%\n  * J.P. Crawford: Swing 37.0%, In Play 9.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, July 3, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-07-03T15:34:32.237Z"
}