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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, June 21, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 21, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, June 21, 2026

June 20 Results: Strike Picks: 2/5 | Ball Picks: 1/4 | In Play Picks: 3/9 (1 fouled)

❌ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ Blake Dunn - Strike / ❌ Ben Rice - Ball / ❌ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ✅ Luis Arraez - Strike / ❌ Jakob Marsee - In Play / ❌ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ✅ Mauricio Dubón - In Play / ✅ Travis Bazzana - In Play / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Nick Kurtz - Ball / ✅ Taylor Ward - In Play / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ❌ Trevor Larnach - Ball / ✅ Ketel Marte - Ball

See full track record →

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Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

NYM @ PHI: Carson Benge vs Zack Wheeler — 65.5% (fair odds -190) Wheeler 70.6% zone, Benge swings 14.3% of the time

First Pitch In Play Picks

CWS @ DET: Kevin McGonigle vs Davis Martin — 26.2% (fair odds +282) McGonigle 26.2% in-play projection vs Martin (92.7 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

CLE @ HOU: Travis Bazzana vs Kai-Wei Teng — 26.8% (fair odds +273) Bazzana 26.8% in-play projection vs Teng (91.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

MIL @ ATL — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Bryce Elder vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.5% (fair odds +115)

  • Bryce Elder: Zone 53.5%, Ball 46.5%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.4 mph
  • Christian Yelich: Swing 9.5%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Robert Gasser vs Mauricio Dubón Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Robert Gasser: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Mauricio Dubón: Swing 44.4%, In Play 18.0%

CIN @ NYY — 1:35 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Chase Burns vs Ben Rice Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Chase Burns: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Ben Rice: Swing 28.0%, In Play 11.6%

WSH @ TB — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Nick Martinez vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.9% (fair odds +402)

  • Nick Martinez: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.3 mph
  • James Wood: Swing 31.7%, In Play 19.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Alvarez vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Andrew Alvarez: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Yandy Díaz: Swing 28.3%, In Play 14.5%

CWS @ DET — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Keider Montero vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.1% (fair odds -178)

  • Keider Montero: Zone 68.0%, Ball 32.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph
  • Sam Antonacci: Swing 17.2%, In Play 3.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Davis Martin vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 26.2% (fair odds +282)

  • Davis Martin: Zone 65.8%, Ball 34.2%
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 34.5%, In Play 26.2%

SF @ MIA — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Gusto vs Luis Arraez Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.6% (fair odds -182)

  • Ryan Gusto: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.1 mph
  • Luis Arraez: Swing 10.5%, In Play 5.4%

STL @ KC — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Stephen Kolek vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.7% (fair odds -142)

  • Stephen Kolek: Zone 70.4%, Ball 29.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 30.2%, In Play 11.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Dustin May vs Carter Jensen Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.4% (fair odds -106)

  • Dustin May: Zone 48.6%, Ball 51.4%
  • Carter Jensen: Swing 47.1%, In Play 5.1%

CLE @ HOU — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kai-Wei Teng vs Travis Bazzana Projected: First Pitch In Play — 26.8% (fair odds +273)

  • Kai-Wei Teng: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.3 mph
  • Travis Bazzana: Swing 33.3%, In Play 26.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Slade Cecconi vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.1% (fair odds +611)

  • Slade Cecconi: Zone 60.5%, Ball 39.5%
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 38.8%, In Play 14.1%

TOR @ CHC — 2:20 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shota Imanaga vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.2% (fair odds +451)

  • Shota Imanaga: Zone 56.1%, Ball 43.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph
  • George Springer: Swing 28.0%, In Play 18.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Dylan Cease vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.3% (fair odds -114)

  • Dylan Cease: Zone 46.7%, Ball 53.3%
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 29.6%, In Play 7.7%

SD @ TEX — 2:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Nathan Eovaldi vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.2% (fair odds +350)

  • Nathan Eovaldi: Zone 72.2%, Ball 27.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.7%, In Play 22.2%

PIT @ COL — 3:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Michael Lorenzen vs Spencer Horwitz Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.1% (fair odds -178)

  • Michael Lorenzen: Zone 65.9%, Ball 34.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.1 mph
  • Spencer Horwitz: Swing 24.0%, In Play 1.8%

LAA @ OAK — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jack Perkins vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Jack Perkins: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
  • Zach Neto: Swing 53.6%, In Play 11.0%

BOS @ SEA — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Anthony Seigler Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Logan Gilbert: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.1 mph
  • Anthony Seigler: Swing 100.0%, In Play 5.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Payton Tolle vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch In Play — 25.3% (fair odds +296)

  • Payton Tolle: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 38.5%, In Play 25.3%

BAL @ LAD — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Emmet Sheehan vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Ball — 52.0% (fair odds -108)

  • Emmet Sheehan: Zone 48.0%, Ball 52.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.8 mph
  • Taylor Ward: Swing 29.4%, In Play 8.3%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Young vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.8% (fair odds -169)

  • Brandon Young: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 23.8%, In Play 9.9%

NYM @ PHI — 7:20 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Zack Wheeler vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 65.5% (fair odds -190)

  • Zack Wheeler: Zone 70.6%, Ball 29.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.3 mph
  • Carson Benge: Swing 14.3%, In Play 5.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): David Peterson vs Trea Turner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

  • David Peterson: Zone 68.2%, Ball 31.8%
  • Trea Turner: Swing 15.3%, In Play 9.9%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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