First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, July 1, 2026 | MLB Edge
First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, July 1, 2026
June 30 Results: Strike Picks: 2/3 | Ball Picks: 6/8 | In Play Picks: 1/7 (0 fouled)
❌ Travis Bazzana - In Play / ✅ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ✅ Yandy Díaz - Ball / ✅ Carter Jensen - In Play / ❌ Elly De La Cruz - Ball / ❌ Christian Yelich - Ball / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ✅ Trevor Larnach - Ball / ❌ Jose Altuve - In Play / ❌ Liam Hicks - Strike / ✅ Jake McCarthy - Ball / ✅ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ✅ Henry Bolte - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play
See full track record →
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Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks
Our highest-conviction plays from today's 13-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.
First Pitch Strike Picks
CWS @ BAL: Sam Antonacci faces Dean Kremer - 74.2% chance (fair odds -288) Dean Kremer throws pitches in the zone 80.6% of the time and only allows balls to be put in play 16.1% of the time. Sam Antonacci only swings at pitches 15.8% of the time and puts them in play just 5.3% of the time.
First Pitch In Play Picks
TB @ KC: Yandy Diaz vs Seth Lugo - 24.1% chance (fair odds +315) Seth Lugo throws the ball in the zone 81.4% of the time, generating swings 34.9% of the time, and allows balls to be put in play 18.6% of the time. Yandy Díaz swings at pitches 30.1% of the time and puts them in play 16.8% of the time.
MIA @ COL: Jake McCarthy vs Max Meyer — 17.2% (fair odds +480) Max Meyer throws the ball in the zone 65.5% of the time, generating swings 37.9% of the time, and allows balls to be put in play 17.2% of the time. Jake McCarthy swings at pitches 48.3% of the time and puts them in play 17.2% of the time.
📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.
🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →
Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections
White Sox @ Orioles
Top 1st: Sam Antonacci vs Dean Kremer
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch Strike — 74.2% (Fair odds -288)
- Dean Kremer: Zone 80.6%, Ball In Play 16.1%
- Sam Antonacci: Swing 15.8%, In Play 5.3%
Rangers @ Guardians
**Bottom 1st: Travis Bazzana vs MacKenzie Gore **
Projected Outcome: First Pitch In Play — 16.1% (Fair odds +522)
- MacKenzie Gore: Zone 57.4%, Swing 38.3%
- Travis Bazzana: Swing 25.0%, In Play 17.9%
Tigers @ Yankees
Top 1st: Kevin McGonigle vs Will Warren
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch In Play — 17.4% (Fair odds +475)
- Will Warren: Zone 81.6%, Swing 32.7%
- Kevin McGonigle: Swing 37.0%, In Play 13.0%
Bottom 1st: Ben Rice vs Troy Melton
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (Fair odds -140)
- Troy Melton: Zone 72.7%, Ball In Play 9.1%
- Ben Rice: Swing 26.5%, In Play 11.8%
Padres @ Cubs
Top 1st: Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Colin Rea
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch In Play — 15.4% (Fair odds +549)
- Colin Rea: Zone 70.0%, Swing 25.0%
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.2%, In Play 12.8%
Mets @ Blue Jays
Top 1st: Carson Benge vs Braydon Fisher
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch Ball — 66.7% (Fair odds -200)
- Braydon Fisher: First Pitch Ball 66.7%
Rays @ Royals
Top 1st: Yandy Díaz vs Seth Lugo
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch In Play — 24.1% (Fair odds +315)
- Seth Lugo: Zone 81.4%, Swing 34.9%
- Yandy Díaz: Swing 30.1%, In Play 16.8%
Bottom 1st: Lane Thomas vs Shane McClanahan
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (Fair odds -100)
- Shane McClanahan: First Pitch Ball 50.0%
Twins @ Astros
Top 1st: Trevor Larnach vs Tatsuya Imai
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch Ball — 54.5% (Fair odds -120)
- Tatsuya Imai: First Pitch Ball 54.5%
Bottom 1st: Jose Altuve vs Taj Bradley
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch Ball — 52.4% (Fair odds -110)
- Taj Bradley: First Pitch Ball 52.4%
Marlins @ Rockies
Top 1st: Otto Lopez vs Kyle Freeland
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch In Play — 18.1% (Fair odds +452)
- Kyle Freeland: Zone 68.9%, Swing 37.8%
- Otto Lopez: Swing 33.3%, In Play 8.3%
Bottom 1st: Jake McCarthy vs Max Meyer
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch In Play — 17.2% (Fair odds +480)
- Max Meyer: Zone 65.5%, Swing 37.9%
- Jake McCarthy: Swing 48.3%, In Play 17.2%
Giants @ D-backs
Top 1st: Luis Arraez vs Zac Gallen
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch Ball — 48.0% (Fair odds +108)
- Zac Gallen: First Pitch Ball 48.0%
Bottom 1st: Ketel Marte vs Trevor McDonald
- Projected Outcome: First Pitch In Play — 27.7% (Fair odds +260)
- Trevor McDonald: Zone 83.3%, Swing 41.7%
- Ketel Marte: Swing 31.8%, In Play 20.0%
Live First Inning Data
For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:
→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)
edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.
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