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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for July 1, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-july-1-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-07-01T14:46:31.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, July 1, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **June 30 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 2/3 | Ball Picks: 6/8 | In Play Picks: 1/7 (0 fouled)\n>\n> ❌ Travis Bazzana - In Play / ✅ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ✅ Yandy Díaz - Ball / ✅ Carter Jensen - In Play / ❌ Elly De La Cruz - Ball / ❌ Christian Yelich - Ball / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ✅ Trevor Larnach - Ball / ❌ Jose Altuve - In Play / ❌ Liam Hicks - Strike / ✅ Jake McCarthy - Ball / ✅ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ✅ Henry Bolte - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n### Winning Slips 💰\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 13-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Strike Picks\n\n> **CWS @ BAL: Sam Antonacci faces Dean Kremer - 74.2% chance (fair odds -288)**\n>  Dean Kremer throws pitches in the zone 80.6% of the time and only allows balls to be put in play 16.1% of the time. Sam Antonacci only swings at pitches 15.8% of the time and puts them in play just 5.3% of the time.\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **TB @ KC: Yandy Diaz vs Seth Lugo - 24.1% chance (fair odds +315)**\n>  Seth Lugo throws the ball in the zone 81.4% of the time, generating swings 34.9% of the time, and allows balls to be put in play 18.6% of the time. Yandy Díaz swings at pitches 30.1% of the time and puts them in play 16.8% of the time.\n\n> **MIA @ COL: Jake McCarthy vs Max Meyer — 17.2% (fair odds +480)**\n>  Max Meyer throws the ball in the zone 65.5% of the time, generating swings 37.9% of the time, and allows balls to be put in play 17.2% of the time. Jake McCarthy swings at pitches 48.3% of the time and puts them in play 17.2% of the time.\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### White Sox @ Orioles\n\n**Top 1st: Sam Antonacci vs Dean Kremer**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch Strike — 74.2% (Fair odds -288)\n  * **Dean Kremer:** Zone 80.6%, Ball In Play 16.1%\n  * **Sam Antonacci:** Swing 15.8%, In Play 5.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### Rangers @ Guardians\n\n**Bottom 1st: Travis Bazzana vs MacKenzie Gore **\n\n**Projected Outcome:** First Pitch In Play — 16.1% (Fair odds +522)\n\n  * **MacKenzie Gore:** Zone 57.4%, Swing 38.3%\n  * **Travis Bazzana:** Swing 25.0%, In Play 17.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### Tigers @ Yankees\n\n**Top 1st: Kevin McGonigle vs Will Warren**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch In Play — 17.4% (Fair odds +475)\n  * **Will Warren:** Zone 81.6%, Swing 32.7%\n  * **Kevin McGonigle:** Swing 37.0%, In Play 13.0%\n\n\n\n**Bottom 1st: Ben Rice vs Troy Melton**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (Fair odds -140)\n  * **Troy Melton:** Zone 72.7%, Ball In Play 9.1%\n  * **Ben Rice:** Swing 26.5%, In Play 11.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### Padres @ Cubs\n\n**Top 1st: Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Colin Rea**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch In Play — 15.4% (Fair odds +549)\n  * **Colin Rea:** Zone 70.0%, Swing 25.0%\n  * **Fernando Tatis Jr.:** Swing 37.2%, In Play 12.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### Mets @ Blue Jays\n\n**Top 1st: Carson Benge vs Braydon Fisher**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch Ball — 66.7% (Fair odds -200)\n  * **Braydon Fisher:** First Pitch Ball 66.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### Rays @ Royals\n\n**Top 1st: Yandy Díaz vs Seth Lugo**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch In Play — 24.1% (Fair odds +315)\n  * **Seth Lugo:** Zone 81.4%, Swing 34.9%\n  * **Yandy Díaz:** Swing 30.1%, In Play 16.8%\n\n\n\n**Bottom 1st: Lane Thomas vs Shane McClanahan**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (Fair odds -100)\n  * **Shane McClanahan:** First Pitch Ball 50.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### Twins @ Astros\n\n**Top 1st: Trevor Larnach vs Tatsuya Imai**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch Ball — 54.5% (Fair odds -120)\n  * **Tatsuya Imai:** First Pitch Ball 54.5%\n\n\n\n**Bottom 1st: Jose Altuve vs Taj Bradley**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch Ball — 52.4% (Fair odds -110)\n  * **Taj Bradley:** First Pitch Ball 52.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### Marlins @ Rockies\n\n**Top 1st: Otto Lopez vs Kyle Freeland**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch In Play — 18.1% (Fair odds +452)\n  * **Kyle Freeland:** Zone 68.9%, Swing 37.8%\n  * **Otto Lopez:** Swing 33.3%, In Play 8.3%\n\n\n\n**Bottom 1st: Jake McCarthy vs Max Meyer**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch In Play — 17.2% (Fair odds +480)\n  * **Max Meyer:** Zone 65.5%, Swing 37.9%\n  * **Jake McCarthy:** Swing 48.3%, In Play 17.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### Giants @ D-backs\n\n**Top 1st: Luis Arraez vs Zac Gallen**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch Ball — 48.0% (Fair odds +108)\n  * **Zac Gallen:** First Pitch Ball 48.0%\n\n\n\n**Bottom 1st: Ketel Marte vs Trevor McDonald**\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** First Pitch In Play — 27.7% (Fair odds +260)\n  * **Trevor McDonald:** Zone 83.3%, Swing 41.7%\n  * **Ketel Marte:** Swing 31.8%, In Play 20.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, July 1, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-07-01T18:02:06.495Z"
}