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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, June 22, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 22, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, June 22, 2026

June 21 Results: Strike Picks: 4/8 | Ball Picks: 5/9 | In Play Picks: 1/5 (1 fouled)

✅ Ben Rice - Ball / ✅ Christian Yelich - Ball / ✅ Mauricio Dubón - Ball / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ✅ Yandy Díaz - Ball / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ✅ Luis Arraez - Strike / ❌ Travis Bazzana - In Play / ✅ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Strike / ❌ Carter Jensen - Ball / ❌ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Ball / ❌ Spencer Horwitz - Strike / ❌ Jake McCarthy - Strike / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ✅ Taylor Ward - Ball / ✅ Shohei Ohtani - Strike / ❌ Anthony Seigler - Ball / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ❌ Trea Turner - Strike

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 13-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

MIL @ CIN: Christian Yelich vs Brady Singer — 66.7% (fair odds -200) Singer 66.7% zone, Yelich swings 9.1% of the time

First Pitch In Play Picks

KC @ TB: Yandy Díaz vs Michael Wacha — 24.6% (fair odds +306) Díaz 24.6% in-play projection vs Wacha (91.7 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

BAL @ LAA: Zach Neto vs Kyle Bradish — 14.9% (fair odds +572) Neto 14.9% in-play projection vs Bradish (94.7 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

NYY @ DET — 6:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Framber Valdez vs Ben Rice Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.3% (fair odds +447)

Framber Valdez: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%, 1st pitch Sinker 93.3 mph
Ben Rice: Swing 23.3%, In Play 18.3%

KC @ TB — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Carter Jensen Projected: First Pitch Strike — 68.3% (fair odds -215)

Drew Rasmussen: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
Carter Jensen: Swing 44.4%, In Play 6.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Wacha vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 24.6% (fair odds +306)

Michael Wacha: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%
Yandy Díaz: Swing 35.7%, In Play 24.6%

TEX @ MIA — 6:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Jakob Marsee Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.2% (fair odds +116)

Kumar Rocker: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%
Jakob Marsee: Swing 14.3%, In Play 11.6%

HOU @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Dylan Cease vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.3% (fair odds -114)

Dylan Cease: Zone 46.7%, Ball 53.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.7 mph
Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.4%, In Play 11.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Hunter Brown vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Strike — 69.3% (fair odds -226)

Hunter Brown: Zone 78.8%, Ball 21.2%
George Springer: Swing 34.6%, In Play 9.5%

MIL @ CIN — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brady Singer vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Strike — 66.7% (fair odds -200)

Brady Singer: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 92.5 mph
Christian Yelich: Swing 9.1%, In Play 0.0%

CLE @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Anthony Kay vs Travis Bazzana Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.7% (fair odds +407)

Anthony Kay: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.4 mph
Travis Bazzana: Swing 33.3%, In Play 19.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Gavin Williams vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.3% (fair odds -152)

Gavin Williams: Zone 63.8%, Ball 36.2%
Sam Antonacci: Swing 16.7%, In Play 3.5%

LAD @ MIN — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 66.8% (fair odds -201)

Zebby Matthews: Zone 77.3%, Ball 22.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
Shohei Ohtani: Swing 23.6%, In Play 10.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Eric Lauer vs Austin Martin Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.8% (fair odds -137)

Eric Lauer: Zone 72.0%, Ball 28.0%
Austin Martin: Swing 12.5%, In Play 14.2%

ARI @ STL — 7:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Andre Pallante vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Andre Pallante: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.1 mph
Ketel Marte: Swing 32.3%, In Play 11.9%

BAL @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Bradish vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.9% (fair odds +572)

Kyle Bradish: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%
Zach Neto: Swing 54.0%, In Play 14.9%

ATL @ SD — 10:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Grant Holmes vs Samad Taylor Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Grant Holmes: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
Samad Taylor: Swing 100.0%, In Play 4.3%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.