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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, June 29, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 29, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, June 29, 2026

June 28 Results: Strike Picks: 5/7 | Ball Picks: 2/6 | In Play Picks: 1/6 (0 fouled)

❌ James Wood - Strike / ❌ Joc Pederson - Ball / ❌ George Springer - Ball / ✅ Jeremy Peña - Ball / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - Strike / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ✅ Steven Kwan - Strike / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ✅ Willi Castro - Strike / ❌ Trevor Larnach - In Play / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ✅ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Strike / ❌ Jakob Marsee - In Play / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ✅ Matt Chapman - In Play (gut call, model skipped due to low data) / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 13-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

NYM @ TOR: Carson Benge vs Trey Yesavage — 55.6% (fair odds -125) Yesavage 55.6% ball rate, Benge 15.6% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

NYM @ TOR: George Springer vs Sean Manaea — 25.4% (fair odds +294) Springer 25.4% in-play projection vs Manaea (91.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

MIN @ HOU: Trevor Larnach vs Peter Lambert — 27.0% (fair odds +270) Larnach 27.0% in-play projection vs Lambert (93.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

DET @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Weathers vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.8% (fair odds +461)

Ryan Weathers: Zone 65.2%, Ball 34.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph
Kevin McGonigle: Swing 38.6%, In Play 17.8%

NYM @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Trey Yesavage vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.6% (fair odds -125)

Trey Yesavage: Zone 44.4%, Ball 55.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.4 mph
Carson Benge: Swing 15.6%, In Play 2.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sean Manaea vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch In Play — 25.4% (fair odds +294)

Sean Manaea: Zone 80.0%, Ball 20.0%
George Springer: Swing 30.8%, In Play 25.4%

WSH @ BOS — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ranger Suarez vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.0% (fair odds +567)

Ranger Suarez: Zone 61.0%, Ball 39.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph
James Wood: Swing 32.4%, In Play 15.0%

TEX @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Alexander vs Travis Bazzana Projected: First Pitch Ball — 71.4% (fair odds -250)

Tyler Alexander: Zone 28.6%, Ball 71.4%
Travis Bazzana: Swing 28.0%, In Play 5.8%

CIN @ MIL — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Robert Gasser vs Blake Dunn Projected: First Pitch Ball — 57.1% (fair odds -133)

Robert Gasser: Zone 42.9%, Ball 57.1%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.2 mph
Blake Dunn: Swing 9.1%, In Play 0.0%

MIN @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Peter Lambert vs Trevor Larnach Projected: First Pitch In Play — 27.0% (fair odds +270)

Peter Lambert: Zone 91.7%, Ball 8.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.4 mph
Trevor Larnach: Swing 41.9%, In Play 27.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 20.5% (fair odds +388)

Zebby Matthews: Zone 73.9%, Ball 26.1%
Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.8%, In Play 20.5%

MIA @ COL — 8:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs Jake McCarthy Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.3% (fair odds +601)

Sandy Alcantara: Zone 70.8%, Ball 29.2%
Jake McCarthy: Swing 48.0%, In Play 14.3%

LAA @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): George Kirby vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.5% (fair odds +115)

George Kirby: Zone 53.5%, Ball 46.5%, 1st pitch Sinker 96.1 mph
Zach Neto: Swing 53.5%, In Play 9.8%

LAD @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Gage Jump vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch In Play — 23.6% (fair odds +323)

Gage Jump: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.4 mph
Shohei Ohtani: Swing 36.2%, In Play 23.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Eric Lauer vs Henry Bolte Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.5% (fair odds -160)

Eric Lauer: Zone 72.0%, Ball 28.0%
Henry Bolte: Swing 50.0%, In Play 10.5%

SF @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Mahle vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 21.5% (fair odds +366)

Tyler Mahle: Zone 63.0%, Ball 37.0%
Ketel Marte: Swing 32.4%, In Play 21.5%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.