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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for June 29, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-june-29-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-06-29T19:00:45.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, June 29, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **June 28 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 5/7 | Ball Picks: 2/6 | In Play Picks: 1/6 (0 fouled)\n>\n> ❌ James Wood - Strike / ❌ Joc Pederson - Ball / ❌ George Springer - Ball / ✅ Jeremy Peña - Ball / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - Strike / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ✅ Steven Kwan - Strike / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ✅ Willi Castro - Strike / ❌ Trevor Larnach - In Play / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ✅ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Strike / ❌ Jakob Marsee - In Play / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ✅ Matt Chapman - In Play (gut call, model skipped due to low data) / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n### Winning Slips 💰\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 13-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **NYM @ TOR: Carson Benge vs Trey Yesavage — 55.6% (fair odds -125)**\n>  Yesavage 55.6% ball rate, Benge 15.6% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **NYM @ TOR: George Springer vs Sean Manaea — 25.4% (fair odds +294)**\n>  Springer 25.4% in-play projection vs Manaea (91.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **MIN @ HOU: Trevor Larnach vs Peter Lambert — 27.0% (fair odds +270)**\n>  Larnach 27.0% in-play projection vs Lambert (93.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### DET @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Weathers vs Kevin McGonigle**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.8%** (fair odds +461)\n\n  * Ryan Weathers: Zone 65.2%, Ball 34.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph\n  * Kevin McGonigle: Swing 38.6%, In Play 17.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYM @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Trey Yesavage vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.6%** (fair odds -125)\n\n  * Trey Yesavage: Zone 44.4%, Ball 55.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.4 mph\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 15.6%, In Play 2.8%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Sean Manaea vs George Springer**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 25.4%** (fair odds +294)\n\n  * Sean Manaea: Zone 80.0%, Ball 20.0%\n  * George Springer: Swing 30.8%, In Play 25.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### WSH @ BOS — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Ranger Suarez vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.0%** (fair odds +567)\n\n  * Ranger Suarez: Zone 61.0%, Ball 39.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph\n  * James Wood: Swing 32.4%, In Play 15.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TEX @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Alexander vs Travis Bazzana**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 71.4%** (fair odds -250)\n\n  * Tyler Alexander: Zone 28.6%, Ball 71.4%\n  * Travis Bazzana: Swing 28.0%, In Play 5.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CIN @ MIL — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Robert Gasser vs Blake Dunn**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 57.1%** (fair odds -133)\n\n  * Robert Gasser: Zone 42.9%, Ball 57.1%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.2 mph\n  * Blake Dunn: Swing 9.1%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIN @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Peter Lambert vs Trevor Larnach**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 27.0%** (fair odds +270)\n\n  * Peter Lambert: Zone 91.7%, Ball 8.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.4 mph\n  * Trevor Larnach: Swing 41.9%, In Play 27.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Jeremy Peña**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 20.5%** (fair odds +388)\n\n  * Zebby Matthews: Zone 73.9%, Ball 26.1%\n  * Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.8%, In Play 20.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIA @ COL — 8:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs Jake McCarthy**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.3%** (fair odds +601)\n\n  * Sandy Alcantara: Zone 70.8%, Ball 29.2%\n  * Jake McCarthy: Swing 48.0%, In Play 14.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAA @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): George Kirby vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.5%** (fair odds +115)\n\n  * George Kirby: Zone 53.5%, Ball 46.5%, 1st pitch Sinker 96.1 mph\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 53.5%, In Play 9.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAD @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Gage Jump vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 23.6%** (fair odds +323)\n\n  * Gage Jump: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.4 mph\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 36.2%, In Play 23.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Eric Lauer vs Henry Bolte**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 61.5%** (fair odds -160)\n\n  * Eric Lauer: Zone 72.0%, Ball 28.0%\n  * Henry Bolte: Swing 50.0%, In Play 10.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Mahle vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 21.5%** (fair odds +366)\n\n  * Tyler Mahle: Zone 63.0%, Ball 37.0%\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 32.4%, In Play 21.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, June 29, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T19:00:46.122Z"
}