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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, June 18, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 18, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, June 18, 2026

June 17 Results: Strike Picks: 0/3 | Ball Picks: 1/6 | In Play Picks: 1/9 (3 fouled)

❌ Carter Jensen - In Play / ❌ Liam Hicks - Strike / ❌ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ✅ Tommy Edman - Ball / ❌ Chase Meidroth - In Play / ❌ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ❌ Luis Arraez - Ball / ❌ Travis Bazzana - Ball / ❌ Christian Yelich - Strike / ✅ Pete Crow-Armstrong - In Play / ❌ Spencer Horwitz - Ball / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play / ❌ Taylor Ward - Ball / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ❌ Luis Arraez - Ball

See full track record →

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Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 9-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

STL @ KC: JJ Wetherholt vs Noah Cameron — 54.1% (fair odds -118) Cameron 54.1% ball rate, Wetherholt 31.2% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

CWS @ NYY: Chase Meidroth vs Ryan Weathers — 15.5% (fair odds +545) Meidroth 15.5% in-play projection vs Weathers (93.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

STL @ KC: Lane Thomas vs Matthew Liberatore — 16.6% (fair odds +503) Thomas 16.6% in-play projection vs Liberatore (93.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

TOR @ BOS — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sonny Gray vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.3% (fair odds -180)

Sonny Gray: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.3 mph
George Springer: Swing 34.6%, In Play 10.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Trey Yesavage vs Mickey Gasper Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Trey Yesavage: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
Mickey Gasper: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%

CLE @ MIL — 2:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Parker Messick vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch In Play — 20.1% (fair odds +398)

Parker Messick: Zone 61.9%, Ball 38.1%
Jackson Chourio: Swing 46.9%, In Play 20.1%

MIN @ TEX — 2:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jack Leiter vs Trevor Larnach Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.5% (fair odds +643)

Jack Leiter: Zone 54.8%, Ball 45.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.0 mph
Trevor Larnach: Swing 36.4%, In Play 13.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Joe Ryan vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.6% (fair odds +543)

Joe Ryan: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%
Joc Pederson: Swing 21.4%, In Play 15.6%

NYM @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Nola vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.5% (fair odds -147)

Aaron Nola: Zone 64.5%, Ball 35.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.7 mph
Carson Benge: Swing 14.8%, In Play 5.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sean Manaea vs Kyle Schwarber Projected: First Pitch Strike — 66.0% (fair odds -194)

Sean Manaea: Zone 76.9%, Ball 23.1%
Kyle Schwarber: Swing 34.4%, In Play 10.9%

CWS @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Weathers vs Chase Meidroth Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.5% (fair odds +545)

Ryan Weathers: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.2 mph
Chase Meidroth: Swing 34.8%, In Play 15.5%

STL @ KC — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Noah Cameron vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Ball — 54.1% (fair odds -118)

Noah Cameron: Zone 45.9%, Ball 54.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph
JJ Wetherholt: Swing 31.2%, In Play 7.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Lane Thomas Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.6% (fair odds +503)

Matthew Liberatore: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%
Lane Thomas: Swing 42.9%, In Play 16.6%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.