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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, June 28, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 28, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, June 28, 2026

June 27 Results: Strike Picks: 2/4 | Ball Picks: 2/7 | In Play Picks: 1/9 (1 fouled)

❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Joc Pederson - Ball / ❌ Nathan Lukes - In Play / ❌ Jake Mangum - Ball / ❌ Carter Jensen - In Play / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ James Wood - Strike / ✅ Taylor Ward - Strike / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ✅ Steven Kwan - Ball / ❌ Trevor Larnach - In Play / ❌ Pete Crow-Armstrong - In Play / ✅ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - Ball / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Strike / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ✅ Luis Arraez - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

LAD @ SD: Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Emmet Sheehan — 53.8% (fair odds -116) Sheehan 53.8% ball rate, Jr. 37.3% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

ARI @ TB: Ketel Marte vs Drew Rasmussen — 20.9% (fair odds +378) Marte 20.9% in-play projection vs Rasmussen (94.9 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

COL @ MIN: Trevor Larnach vs Ryan Feltner — 21.0% (fair odds +377) Larnach 21.0% in-play projection vs Feltner (93.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

WSH @ BAL — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Bradish vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.5% (fair odds +543)

Kyle Bradish: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph
James Wood: Swing 31.8%, In Play 15.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zack Littell vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.7% (fair odds +579)

Zack Littell: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%
Taylor Ward: Swing 29.6%, In Play 14.7%

CIN @ PIT — 1:35 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brady Singer vs Jake Mangum Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.0% (fair odds -178)

Brady Singer: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%
Jake Mangum: Swing 37.5%, In Play 3.4%

TEX @ TOR — 1:37 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shane Bieber vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Ball — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

Shane Bieber: Zone 41.7%, Ball 58.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.8 mph
Joc Pederson: Swing 19.4%, In Play 6.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Nathan Lukes Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.2% (fair odds +116)

Kumar Rocker: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%
Nathan Lukes: Swing 29.4%, In Play 11.6%

PHI @ NYM — 1:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 65.6% (fair odds -191)

Jesús Luzardo: Zone 68.8%, Ball 31.2%
Carson Benge: Swing 20.5%, In Play 3.2%

ARI @ TB — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 20.9% (fair odds +378)

Drew Rasmussen: Zone 75.6%, Ball 24.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
Ketel Marte: Swing 32.7%, In Play 20.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Merrill Kelly vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.0% (fair odds +614)

Merrill Kelly: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%
Yandy Díaz: Swing 32.8%, In Play 14.0%

SEA @ CLE — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Gavin Williams vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.2% (fair odds +602)

Gavin Williams: Zone 64.6%, Ball 35.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.8 mph
J.P. Crawford: Swing 38.6%, In Play 14.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Emerson Hancock vs Steven Kwan Projected: First Pitch Strike — 71.6% (fair odds -253)

Emerson Hancock: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%
Steven Kwan: Swing 3.4%, In Play 1.7%
📌Lineuip note: If Bazzana leads off instead - become a strong IN PLAY opportunity at 27.1% chance (+269 fair odds)

HOU @ DET — 1:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Hunter Brown vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.9% (fair odds -156)

Hunter Brown: Zone 76.5%, Ball 23.5%
Kevin McGonigle: Swing 35.3%, In Play 15.6%

CHC @ MIL — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brandon Woodruff vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.8% (fair odds -137)

Brandon Woodruff: Zone 68.4%, Ball 31.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 89.7 mph
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 32.3%, In Play 10.6%

KC @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Luinder Avila vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.7% (fair odds -176)

Luinder Avila: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%
Sam Antonacci: Swing 14.7%, In Play 3.0%

COL @ MIN — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Connor Prielipp vs Willi Castro Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.5% (fair odds -153)

Connor Prielipp: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.7 mph
Willi Castro: Swing 42.9%, In Play 12.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Ryan Feltner vs Trevor Larnach Projected: First Pitch In Play — 21.0% (fair odds +377)

Ryan Feltner: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%
Trevor Larnach: Swing 43.3%, In Play 21.0%

MIA @ STL — 2:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Leahy vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.1% (fair odds +563)

Kyle Leahy: Zone 68.8%, Ball 31.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
Xavier Edwards: Swing 27.7%, In Play 15.1%

OAK @ LAA — 3:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Aaron Civale vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.7% (fair odds +114)

Aaron Civale: Zone 53.3%, Ball 46.7%
Zach Neto: Swing 53.1%, In Play 11.5%

LAD @ SD — 4:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Emmet Sheehan vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.8% (fair odds -116)

Emmet Sheehan: Zone 46.2%, Ball 53.8%
Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.3%, In Play 12.7%

NYY @ BOS — 7:20 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sonny Gray vs Ben Rice Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.1% (fair odds +522)

Sonny Gray: Zone 71.7%, Ball 28.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.3 mph
Ben Rice: Swing 25.9%, In Play 16.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Carlos Rodón vs Nate Eaton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.4% (fair odds +347)

Carlos Rodón: Zone 79.1%, Ball 20.9%
Nate Eaton: Swing 37.5%, In Play 22.4%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.