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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for June 28, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-june-28-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-06-28T14:38:13.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, June 28, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **June 27 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 2/4 | Ball Picks: 2/7 | In Play Picks: 1/9 (1 fouled)\n>\n> ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Joc Pederson - Ball / ❌ Nathan Lukes - In Play / ❌ Jake Mangum - Ball / ❌ Carter Jensen - In Play / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ James Wood - Strike / ✅ Taylor Ward - Strike / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ✅ Steven Kwan - Ball / ❌ Trevor Larnach - In Play / ❌ Pete Crow-Armstrong - In Play / ✅ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - Ball / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Strike / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ✅ Luis Arraez - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n### Winning Slips 💰\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **LAD @ SD: Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Emmet Sheehan — 53.8% (fair odds -116)**\n>  Sheehan 53.8% ball rate, Jr. 37.3% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **ARI @ TB: Ketel Marte vs Drew Rasmussen — 20.9% (fair odds +378)**\n>  Marte 20.9% in-play projection vs Rasmussen (94.9 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **COL @ MIN: Trevor Larnach vs Ryan Feltner — 21.0% (fair odds +377)**\n>  Larnach 21.0% in-play projection vs Feltner (93.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### WSH @ BAL — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Bradish vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.5%** (fair odds +543)\n\n  * Kyle Bradish: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph\n  * James Wood: Swing 31.8%, In Play 15.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Zack Littell vs Taylor Ward**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.7%** (fair odds +579)\n\n  * Zack Littell: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%\n  * Taylor Ward: Swing 29.6%, In Play 14.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CIN @ PIT — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Brady Singer vs Jake Mangum**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 64.0%** (fair odds -178)\n\n  * Brady Singer: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%\n  * Jake Mangum: Swing 37.5%, In Play 3.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TEX @ TOR — 1:37 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Shane Bieber vs Joc Pederson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 58.3%** (fair odds -140)\n\n  * Shane Bieber: Zone 41.7%, Ball 58.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.8 mph\n  * Joc Pederson: Swing 19.4%, In Play 6.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Nathan Lukes**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.2%** (fair odds +116)\n\n  * Kumar Rocker: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%\n  * Nathan Lukes: Swing 29.4%, In Play 11.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PHI @ NYM — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 65.6%** (fair odds -191)\n\n  * Jesús Luzardo: Zone 68.8%, Ball 31.2%\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 20.5%, In Play 3.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ARI @ TB — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 20.9%** (fair odds +378)\n\n  * Drew Rasmussen: Zone 75.6%, Ball 24.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 32.7%, In Play 20.9%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Merrill Kelly vs Yandy Díaz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.0%** (fair odds +614)\n\n  * Merrill Kelly: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%\n  * Yandy Díaz: Swing 32.8%, In Play 14.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SEA @ CLE — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Gavin Williams vs J.P. Crawford**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.2%** (fair odds +602)\n\n  * Gavin Williams: Zone 64.6%, Ball 35.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.8 mph\n  * J.P. Crawford: Swing 38.6%, In Play 14.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Emerson Hancock vs Steven Kwan**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 71.6%** (fair odds -253)\n\n  * Emerson Hancock: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%\n  * Steven Kwan: Swing 3.4%, In Play 1.7%\n  * 📌Lineuip note: If Bazzana leads off instead - become a strong IN PLAY opportunity at 27.1% chance (+269 fair odds)\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### HOU @ DET — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Hunter Brown vs Kevin McGonigle**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 60.9%** (fair odds -156)\n\n  * Hunter Brown: Zone 76.5%, Ball 23.5%\n  * Kevin McGonigle: Swing 35.3%, In Play 15.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CHC @ MIL — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Brandon Woodruff vs Pete Crow-Armstrong**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.8%** (fair odds -137)\n\n  * Brandon Woodruff: Zone 68.4%, Ball 31.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 89.7 mph\n  * Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 32.3%, In Play 10.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### KC @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Luinder Avila vs Sam Antonacci**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 63.7%** (fair odds -176)\n\n  * Luinder Avila: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%\n  * Sam Antonacci: Swing 14.7%, In Play 3.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### COL @ MIN — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Connor Prielipp vs Willi Castro**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 60.5%** (fair odds -153)\n\n  * Connor Prielipp: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.7 mph\n  * Willi Castro: Swing 42.9%, In Play 12.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Ryan Feltner vs Trevor Larnach**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 21.0%** (fair odds +377)\n\n  * Ryan Feltner: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%\n  * Trevor Larnach: Swing 43.3%, In Play 21.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIA @ STL — 2:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Leahy vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.1%** (fair odds +563)\n\n  * Kyle Leahy: Zone 68.8%, Ball 31.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 27.7%, In Play 15.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### OAK @ LAA — 3:15 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Aaron Civale vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.7%** (fair odds +114)\n\n  * Aaron Civale: Zone 53.3%, Ball 46.7%\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 53.1%, In Play 11.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAD @ SD — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Emmet Sheehan vs Fernando Tatis Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 53.8%** (fair odds -116)\n\n  * Emmet Sheehan: Zone 46.2%, Ball 53.8%\n  * Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.3%, In Play 12.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ BOS — 7:20 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Sonny Gray vs Ben Rice**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.1%** (fair odds +522)\n\n  * Sonny Gray: Zone 71.7%, Ball 28.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.3 mph\n  * Ben Rice: Swing 25.9%, In Play 16.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Carlos Rodón vs Nate Eaton**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.4%** (fair odds +347)\n\n  * Carlos Rodón: Zone 79.1%, Ball 20.9%\n  * Nate Eaton: Swing 37.5%, In Play 22.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, June 28, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-06-28T14:38:13.642Z"
}