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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 17, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, June 17, 2026

June 16 Results: Strike Picks: 2/8 | Ball Picks: 2/5 | In Play Picks: 1/8 (3 fouled) ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ✅ Lane Thomas - Strike / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Masataka Yoshida - Ball / ❌ Ben Rice - In Play / ❌ Carson Benge - Strike / ❌ Blake Dunn - Strike / ✅ Travis Bazzana - Ball / ❌ Christian Yelich - Strike / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball / ❌ Jake McCarthy - Strike / ❌ Pete Crow-Armstrong - In Play / ❌ Joc Pederson - Strike / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ✅ Ketel Marte - In Play / ✅ Spencer Horwitz - Ball / ❌ Taylor Ward - Ball / ✅ J.P. Crawford - Strike / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - Strike

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

CLE @ MIL: Christian Yelich vs Gavin Williams — 65.2% (fair odds -187) Williams 65.2% zone, Yelich swings 10.0% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

CLE @ MIL: Travis Bazzana vs Brandon Sproat — 60.0% (fair odds -150) Sproat 60.0% ball rate, Bazzana 12.5% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

CWS @ NYY: Paul Goldschmidt vs Anthony Kay — 20.9% (fair odds +377) Goldschmidt 20.9% in-play projection vs Kay (94.5 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

MIA @ PHI — 1:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Andrew Painter vs Liam Hicks Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.6% (fair odds -175)

  • Andrew Painter: Zone 63.6%, Ball 36.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.2 mph
  • Liam Hicks: Swing 18.2%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs Trea Turner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.3% (fair odds -152)

  • Sandy Alcantara: Zone 71.7%, Ball 28.3%
  • Trea Turner: Swing 26.4%, In Play 11.4%

SF @ ATL — 2:00 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Grant Holmes vs Luis Arraez Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Grant Holmes: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
  • Luis Arraez: Swing 12.5%, In Play 5.0%

DET @ HOU — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Peter Lambert vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 31.2% (fair odds +221)

  • Peter Lambert: Zone 90.0%, Ball 10.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 32.1%, In Play 31.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Casey Mize vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.9% (fair odds +529)

  • Casey Mize: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.6%, In Play 15.9%

SD @ STL — 2:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Leahy vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.6% (fair odds +438)

  • Kyle Leahy: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.6 mph
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 36.7%, In Play 18.6%

TB @ LAD — 3:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shohei Ohtani vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.7% (fair odds +538)

  • Shohei Ohtani: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.0 mph
  • Yandy Díaz: Swing 37.0%, In Play 15.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Shane McClanahan vs Tommy Edman Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.8% (fair odds -116)

  • Shane McClanahan: Zone 46.2%, Ball 53.8%
  • Tommy Edman: Swing 33.3%, In Play 0.0%

LAA @ ARI — 3:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.9% (fair odds +493)

  • Eduardo Rodriguez: Zone 55.8%, Ball 44.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph
  • Zach Neto: Swing 52.6%, In Play 16.9%

CWS @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Carlos Rodón vs Chase Meidroth Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.9% (fair odds +430)

  • Carlos Rodón: Zone 78.0%, Ball 22.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.7 mph
  • Chase Meidroth: Swing 33.3%, In Play 18.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Anthony Kay vs Paul Goldschmidt Projected: First Pitch In Play — 20.9% (fair odds +377)

  • Anthony Kay: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%
  • Paul Goldschmidt: Swing 35.4%, In Play 20.9%

CLE @ MIL — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brandon Sproat vs Travis Bazzana Projected: First Pitch Ball — 60.0% (fair odds -150)

  • Brandon Sproat: Zone 40.0%, Ball 60.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.9 mph
  • Travis Bazzana: Swing 12.5%, In Play 5.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Gavin Williams vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Strike — 65.2% (fair odds -187)

  • Gavin Williams: Zone 65.2%, Ball 34.8%
  • Christian Yelich: Swing 10.0%, In Play 0.0%

BAL @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): George Kirby vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.8% (fair odds +105)

  • George Kirby: Zone 51.2%, Ball 48.8%, 1st pitch Sinker 96.4 mph
  • Taylor Ward: Swing 27.7%, In Play 6.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Bradish vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.4% (fair odds +645)

  • Kyle Bradish: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 37.8%, In Play 13.4%

PIT @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Civale vs Spencer Horwitz Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Aaron Civale: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph
  • Spencer Horwitz: Swing 22.9%, In Play 1.5%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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