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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, June 15, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 15, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, June 15, 2026

June 14 Results: Strike Picks: 3/4 | Ball Picks: 1/5 | In Play Picks: 0/9 (3 fouled)

❌ Liam Hicks - Strike / ✅ Spencer Horwitz - Strike / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ❌ Cole Young - In Play / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ✅ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Ketel Marte - Ball / ❌ Blake Dunn - Ball / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ✅ Carter Jensen - Strike / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Trevor Larnach - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Ball / ❌ Kyle Schwarber - In Play / ❌ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ✅ Willi Castro - Ball / ❌ Lawrence Butler - In Play

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 10-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

MIA @ PHI: Liam Hicks vs Zack Wheeler — 72.7% (fair odds -266) Wheeler 72.7% zone, Hicks swings 20.0% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

LAA @ ARI: Ketel Marte vs Walbert Ureña — 70.0% (fair odds -233) Ureña 70.0% ball rate, Marte 33.0% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

DET @ HOU: Kevin McGonigle vs Kai-Wei Teng — 25.9% (fair odds +286) McGonigle 25.9% in-play projection vs Teng (91.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

MIA @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Zack Wheeler vs Liam Hicks Projected: First Pitch Strike — 72.7% (fair odds -266)

  • Zack Wheeler: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.3 mph
  • Liam Hicks: Swing 20.0%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Ryan Gusto vs Kyle Schwarber Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.6% (fair odds -154)

  • Ryan Gusto: Zone 68.4%, Ball 31.6%
  • Kyle Schwarber: Swing 36.4%, In Play 7.8%

KC @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Andrew Alvarez vs Lane Thomas Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.2% (fair odds +658)

  • Andrew Alvarez: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.2 mph
  • Lane Thomas: Swing 50.0%, In Play 13.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Mitch Spence vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.1% (fair odds +561)

  • Mitch Spence: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%
  • James Wood: Swing 31.6%, In Play 15.1%

NYM @ CIN — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Chase Burns vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.6% (fair odds +110)

  • Chase Burns: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 98.0 mph
  • Carson Benge: Swing 15.4%, In Play 4.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tobias Myers vs Blake Dunn Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.5% (fair odds -167)

  • Tobias Myers: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%
  • Blake Dunn: Swing 14.3%, In Play 0.0%

SD @ STL — 7:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Dustin May vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Dustin May: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.9 mph
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.0%, In Play 13.8%

DET @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kai-Wei Teng vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 25.9% (fair odds +286)

  • Kai-Wei Teng: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.2 mph
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 33.3%, In Play 25.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Troy Melton vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 20.4% (fair odds +391)

  • Troy Melton: Zone 77.8%, Ball 22.2%
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 40.0%, In Play 20.4%

LAA @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryne Nelson vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.2% (fair odds +660)

  • Ryne Nelson: Zone 62.2%, Ball 37.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.6 mph
  • Zach Neto: Swing 53.7%, In Play 13.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Walbert Ureña vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch Ball — 70.0% (fair odds -233)

  • Walbert Ureña: Zone 30.0%, Ball 70.0%
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 33.0%, In Play 7.7%

PIT @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): J.T. Ginn vs Spencer Horwitz Projected: First Pitch Strike — 65.9% (fair odds -193)

  • J.T. Ginn: Zone 67.9%, Ball 32.1%, 1st pitch Sinker 93.4 mph
  • Spencer Horwitz: Swing 23.4%, In Play 2.0%

TB @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Eric Lauer vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.0% (fair odds +457)

  • Eric Lauer: Zone 70.8%, Ball 29.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.2 mph
  • Yandy Díaz: Swing 27.3%, In Play 18.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Nick Martinez vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.9% (fair odds -162)

  • Nick Martinez: Zone 71.8%, Ball 28.2%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 23.3%, In Play 9.9%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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