External Publication
Visit Post

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 25, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 25, 2026
Source

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 25, 2026

May 24 Results: Strike Picks: 4/6 | Ball Picks: 1/3 | In Play Picks: 2/8 (0 fouled)

❌ Spencer Horwitz - Ball / ✅ Taylor Ward - Strike / ❌ Austin Martin - In Play / ✅ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ✅ Trent Grisham - Strike / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Strike / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ❌ Maikel Garcia - In Play / ✅ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ✅ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ❌ Brice Matthews - Ball / ✅ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Strike / ❌ Willy Adames - Strike / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ✅ Taylor Ward - Strike / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 13-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

STL @ MIL: JJ Wetherholt vs Jacob Misiorowski — 58.3% (fair odds -140) Misiorowski 58.3% ball rate, Wetherholt 35.0% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

STL @ MIL: Jackson Chourio vs Matthew Liberatore — 22.8% (fair odds +339) Chourio 22.8% in-play projection vs Liberatore (93.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

NYY @ KC: Maikel Garcia vs Will Warren — 17.6% (fair odds +467) Garcia 17.6% in-play projection vs Warren (93.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

CHC @ PIT — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Carmen Mlodzinski vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.4% (fair odds +111)

  • Carmen Mlodzinski: Zone 52.6%, Ball 47.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 20.0%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Ben Brown vs Spencer Horwitz Projected: First Pitch Ball — 61.1% (fair odds -157)

  • Ben Brown: Zone 38.9%, Ball 61.1%
  • Spencer Horwitz: Swing 18.8%, In Play 1.8%

TB @ BAL — 1:35 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Shane McClanahan vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.6% (fair odds -125)

  • Shane McClanahan: Zone 44.4%, Ball 55.6%
  • Taylor Ward: Swing 35.3%, In Play 1.8%

MIN @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Anthony Kay vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.4% (fair odds +509)

  • Anthony Kay: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph
  • Byron Buxton: Swing 57.9%, In Play 16.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.2% (fair odds -172)

  • Zebby Matthews: Zone 72.2%, Ball 27.8%
  • Sam Antonacci: Swing 26.7%, In Play 9.0%

STL @ MIL — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Ball — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

  • Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 41.7%, Ball 58.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 100.6 mph
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 35.0%, In Play 6.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.8% (fair odds +339)

  • Matthew Liberatore: Zone 74.4%, Ball 25.6%
  • Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.3%, In Play 22.8%

NYY @ KC — 3:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Michael Wacha vs Trent Grisham Projected: First Pitch Strike — 67.1% (fair odds -204)

  • Michael Wacha: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph
  • Trent Grisham: Swing 16.8%, In Play 5.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Will Warren vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.6% (fair odds +467)

  • Will Warren: Zone 81.4%, Ball 18.6%
  • Maikel Garcia: Swing 27.3%, In Play 17.6%

ARI @ SF — 5:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Landen Roupp vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.1% (fair odds +454)

  • Landen Roupp: Zone 65.6%, Ball 34.4%, 1st pitch Sinker 92.9 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 32.9%, In Play 18.1%

WSH @ CLE — 6:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Tanner Bibee vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.5% (fair odds +591)

  • Tanner Bibee: Zone 59.5%, Ball 40.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph
  • James Wood: Swing 35.9%, In Play 14.5%

PHI @ SD — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Randy Vásquez vs Trea Turner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.1% (fair odds -144)

  • Randy Vásquez: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph
  • Trea Turner: Swing 25.6%, In Play 9.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.6% (fair odds -136)

  • Jesús Luzardo: Zone 65.1%, Ball 34.9%
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 40.8%, In Play 7.5%

HOU @ TEX — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.4% (fair odds +549)

  • Kumar Rocker: Zone 59.1%, Ball 40.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.2 mph
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 38.8%, In Play 15.4%

COL @ LAD — 9:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Emmet Sheehan vs Jake McCarthy Projected: First Pitch Ball — 57.1% (fair odds -133)

  • Emmet Sheehan: Zone 42.9%, Ball 57.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.9 mph
  • Jake McCarthy: Swing 62.5%, In Play 3.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tanner Gordon vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

  • Tanner Gordon: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.9%, In Play 8.4%

SEA @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Civale vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.9% (fair odds -108)

  • Aaron Civale: Zone 48.1%, Ball 51.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 37.3%, In Play 10.6%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

Discussion in the ATmosphere

Loading comments...