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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, June 5, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 5, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, June 5, 2026

June 4 Results: Strike Picks: 2/5 | Ball Picks: 0/1 | In Play Picks: 1/3 (0 fouled)

❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Strike / ❌ Taylor Ward - Strike / ✅ Christian Yelich - Strike / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ❌ Henry Bolte - Ball / ❌ Spencer Horwitz - Strike / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ✅ Mookie Betts - Strike / ✅ Ketel Marte - In Play

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

MIL @ COL: Jake McCarthy vs Brandon Sproat — 61.5% (fair odds -160) Sproat 61.5% ball rate, McCarthy 46.7% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

CWS @ PHI: Chase Meidroth vs Jesús Luzardo — 18.6% (fair odds +439) Meidroth 18.6% in-play projection vs Luzardo (96.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

SEA @ DET: Gleyber Torres vs Bryan Woo — 25.7% (fair odds +289) Torres 25.7% in-play projection vs Woo (94.9 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

SF @ CHC — 2:20 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Robbie Ray vs Nico Hoerner Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.5% (fair odds +592)

Robbie Ray: Zone 61.4%, Ball 38.6%
Nico Hoerner: Swing 19.4%, In Play 14.5%

SEA @ DET — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Framber Valdez vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.2% (fair odds +350)

Framber Valdez: Zone 72.1%, Ball 27.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 93.2 mph
J.P. Crawford: Swing 41.7%, In Play 22.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Bryan Woo vs Gleyber Torres Projected: First Pitch In Play — 25.7% (fair odds +289)

Bryan Woo: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%
Gleyber Torres: Swing 31.2%, In Play 25.7%

CWS @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Chase Meidroth Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.6% (fair odds +439)

Jesús Luzardo: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.4 mph
Chase Meidroth: Swing 32.6%, In Play 18.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Anthony Kay vs Kyle Schwarber Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.9% (fair odds -143)

Anthony Kay: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%
Kyle Schwarber: Swing 31.8%, In Play 11.1%

BOS @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Weathers vs Jarren Duran Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.8% (fair odds -137)

Ryan Weathers: Zone 68.4%, Ball 31.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.1 mph
Jarren Duran: Swing 20.8%, In Play 10.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sonny Gray vs Trent Grisham Projected: First Pitch Strike — 70.8% (fair odds -242)

Sonny Gray: Zone 76.2%, Ball 23.8%
Trent Grisham: Swing 17.7%, In Play 5.4%

BAL @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Trey Yesavage vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Ball — 49.2% (fair odds +103)

Trey Yesavage: Zone 50.8%, Ball 49.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.5 mph
Taylor Ward: Swing 24.3%, In Play 8.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Young vs Nathan Lukes Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.5% (fair odds +587)

Brandon Young: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%
Nathan Lukes: Swing 30.3%, In Play 14.5%

TB @ MIA — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Gusto vs Chandler Simpson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.5% (fair odds -141)

Ryan Gusto: Zone 70.6%, Ball 29.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
Chandler Simpson: Swing 16.9%, In Play 12.1%

OAK @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Peter Lambert vs Carlos Cortes Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.4% (fair odds +476)

Peter Lambert: Zone 100.0%, Ball 0.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.9 mph
Carlos Cortes: Swing 28.6%, In Play 17.4%

KC @ MIN — 8:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Carter Jensen Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.1% (fair odds -164)

Zebby Matthews: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.0 mph
Carter Jensen: Swing 50.0%, In Play 12.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Wacha vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 24.4% (fair odds +310)

Michael Wacha: Zone 73.8%, Ball 26.2%
Byron Buxton: Swing 51.5%, In Play 24.4%

CIN @ STL — 8:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Leahy vs Blake Dunn Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

Kyle Leahy: Zone 58.3%, Ball 41.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.5 mph
Blake Dunn: Swing 22.2%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brady Singer vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.0% (fair odds -144)

Brady Singer: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%
JJ Wetherholt: Swing 31.1%, In Play 8.4%

CLE @ TEX — 8:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Travis Bazzana Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

Kumar Rocker: Zone 58.3%, Ball 41.7%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.1 mph
Travis Bazzana: Swing 10.0%, In Play 0.0%

MIL @ COL — 8:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Feltner vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

Ryan Feltner: Zone 58.3%, Ball 41.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.0 mph
Christian Yelich: Swing 11.8%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Sproat vs Jake McCarthy Projected: First Pitch Ball — 61.5% (fair odds -160)

Brandon Sproat: Zone 38.5%, Ball 61.5%
Jake McCarthy: Swing 46.7%, In Play 1.0%

WSH @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Merrill Kelly vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.5% (fair odds +643)

Merrill Kelly: Zone 56.4%, Ball 43.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.1 mph
James Wood: Swing 34.7%, In Play 13.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Foster Griffin vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.1% (fair odds +486)

Foster Griffin: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%
Ketel Marte: Swing 32.9%, In Play 17.1%

NYM @ SD — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Christian Scott vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.1% (fair odds +523)

Christian Scott: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%
Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 38.3%, In Play 16.1%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.