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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 24, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 24, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 24, 2026

May 23 Results: Strike Picks: 1/3 | Ball Picks: 3/6 | In Play Picks: 1/6 (1 fouled)

✅ JJ Wetherholt - Strike / ✅ JJ Bleday - Ball / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Strike / ✅ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ❌ Jarren Duran - Ball / ❌ James Wood - Ball / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Strike / ❌ JJ Bleday - Ball / ❌ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ✅ Joc Pederson - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ✅ Jake McCarthy - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch In Play Picks

MIN @ BOS: Byron Buxton vs Sonny Gray — 23.1% (fair odds +333) Buxton 23.1% in-play projection vs Gray (91.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

SEA @ KC: J.P. Crawford vs Seth Lugo — 17.8% (fair odds +462) Crawford 17.8% in-play projection vs Lugo (89.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

TEX @ LAA: Zach Neto vs MacKenzie Gore — 19.2% (fair odds +421) Neto 19.2% in-play projection vs Gore (94.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

PIT @ TOR — 12:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Dylan Cease vs Oneil Cruz Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.8% (fair odds -126)

  • Dylan Cease: Zone 44.2%, Ball 55.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
  • Oneil Cruz: Swing 47.7%, In Play 6.4%

DET @ BAL — 12:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brandon Young vs Colt Keith Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

  • Brandon Young: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
  • Colt Keith: Swing 11.9%, In Play 8.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Framber Valdez vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.6% (fair odds -175)

  • Framber Valdez: Zone 73.2%, Ball 26.8%
  • Taylor Ward: Swing 37.5%, In Play 9.6%

MIN @ BOS — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sonny Gray vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 23.1% (fair odds +333)

  • Sonny Gray: Zone 77.5%, Ball 22.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.3 mph
  • Byron Buxton: Swing 54.4%, In Play 23.1%

TB @ NYY — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Weathers vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.0% (fair odds +565)

  • Ryan Weathers: Zone 71.2%, Ball 28.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.9 mph
  • Yandy Díaz: Swing 23.7%, In Play 15.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Trent Grisham Projected: First Pitch Strike — 67.0% (fair odds -203)

  • Drew Rasmussen: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%
  • Trent Grisham: Swing 16.1%, In Play 5.5%

STL @ CIN — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brady Singer vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.8% (fair odds -155)

  • Brady Singer: Zone 69.0%, Ball 31.0%, 1st pitch Sinker 92.5 mph
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 34.2%, In Play 8.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Matt McLain Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.6% (fair odds -148)

  • Matthew Liberatore: Zone 74.4%, Ball 25.6%
  • Matt McLain: Swing 50.0%, In Play 14.8%

SEA @ KC — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Seth Lugo vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.8% (fair odds +462)

  • Seth Lugo: Zone 80.6%, Ball 19.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 89.3 mph
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 37.0%, In Play 17.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Bryan Woo vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.3% (fair odds +600)

  • Bryan Woo: Zone 65.0%, Ball 35.0%
  • Maikel Garcia: Swing 28.6%, In Play 14.3%

LAD @ MIL — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brandon Sproat vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Ball — 54.5% (fair odds -120)

  • Brandon Sproat: Zone 45.5%, Ball 54.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.1 mph
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 22.0%, In Play 5.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.2% (fair odds +556)

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Zone 68.2%, Ball 31.8%
  • Jackson Chourio: Swing 46.5%, In Play 15.2%

HOU @ CHC — 2:20 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shota Imanaga vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Shota Imanaga: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 40.0%, In Play 15.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Peter Lambert vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch Strike — 100.0% (fair odds -9999)

  • Peter Lambert: Zone 100.0%, Ball 0.0%
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 12.5%, In Play 0.0%

CWS @ SF — 4:05 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Noah Schultz vs Willy Adames Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.9% (fair odds -177)

  • Noah Schultz: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%
  • Willy Adames: Swing 16.0%, In Play 7.5%

COL @ ARI — 4:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jose Quintana vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.6% (fair odds +541)

  • Jose Quintana: Zone 57.6%, Ball 42.4%
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 33.8%, In Play 15.6%

WSH @ ATL — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Martín Pérez vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.8% (fair odds +531)

  • Martín Pérez: Zone 68.8%, Ball 31.2%, 1st pitch Sinker 88.4 mph
  • James Wood: Swing 32.1%, In Play 15.8%

TEX @ LAA — 7:20 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): MacKenzie Gore vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.2% (fair odds +421)

  • MacKenzie Gore: Zone 57.5%, Ball 42.5%
  • Zach Neto: Swing 54.3%, In Play 19.2%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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