External Publication
Visit Post

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 27, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 27, 2026
Source

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 27, 2026

May 26 Results: Strike Picks: 4/5 | Ball Picks: 2/5 | In Play Picks: 1/10 (2 fouled)

❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - In Play / ❌ Jarren Duran - Ball / ✅ George Springer - Strike / ✅ Carson Benge - Ball / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ Trent Grisham - Ball / ✅ Maikel Garcia - Ball / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - In Play / ✅ Christian Yelich - Strike / ✅ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ✅ Joc Pederson - Strike / ❌ Carlos Cortes - Strike / ❌ Kyle Schwarber - In Play / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Willy Adames - Ball / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - In Play

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

ARI @ SF: Willy Adames vs Michael Soroka — 58.4% (fair odds -140) Soroka 66.7% zone, Adames swings 13.6% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

HOU @ TEX: Joc Pederson vs Mike Burrows — 53.6% (fair odds -116) Burrows 53.6% ball rate, Pederson 21.4% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

CHC @ PIT: Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Bubba Chandler — 28.9% (fair odds +246) Crow-Armstrong 28.9% in-play projection vs Chandler (98.5 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

MIA @ TOR — 1:07 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kevin Gausman vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.5% (fair odds +588)

  • Kevin Gausman: Zone 64.6%, Ball 35.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.7 mph
  • Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.3%, In Play 14.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Eury Pérez vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.6% (fair odds -107)

  • Eury Pérez: Zone 48.4%, Ball 51.6%
  • George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 2.9%

WSH @ CLE — 1:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Gavin Williams vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.8% (fair odds +462)

  • Gavin Williams: Zone 65.1%, Ball 34.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.8 mph
  • James Wood: Swing 35.4%, In Play 17.8%

SEA @ OAK — 3:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jeffrey Springs vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.2% (fair odds -105)

  • Jeffrey Springs: Zone 48.8%, Ball 51.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.0 mph
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 36.4%, In Play 15.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Carlos Cortes Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.8% (fair odds -116)

  • Logan Gilbert: Zone 46.2%, Ball 53.8%
  • Carlos Cortes: Swing 22.2%, In Play 7.7%

ARI @ SF — 3:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Trevor McDonald vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 26.9% (fair odds +271)

  • Trevor McDonald: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%, 1st pitch Sinker 89.9 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 32.5%, In Play 26.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Soroka vs Willy Adames Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.4% (fair odds -140)

  • Michael Soroka: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%
  • Willy Adames: Swing 13.6%, In Play 8.3%

PHI @ SD — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Walker Buehler vs Kyle Schwarber Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Walker Buehler: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph
  • Kyle Schwarber: Swing 35.7%, In Play 11.0%

LAA @ DET — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Casey Mize vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.7% (fair odds +581)

  • Casey Mize: Zone 68.4%, Ball 31.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph
  • Zach Neto: Swing 52.8%, In Play 14.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): José Soriano vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.6% (fair odds +110)

  • José Soriano: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 31.8%, In Play 15.8%

CHC @ PIT — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Bubba Chandler vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch In Play — 28.9% (fair odds +246)

  • Bubba Chandler: Zone 78.6%, Ball 21.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 98.5 mph
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 27.3%, In Play 28.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jameson Taillon vs Spencer Horwitz Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.1% (fair odds -150)

  • Jameson Taillon: Zone 62.9%, Ball 37.1%
  • Spencer Horwitz: Swing 21.2%, In Play 2.8%

ATL @ BOS — 6:45 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Bryce Elder vs Jarren Duran Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.2% (fair odds +116)

  • Bryce Elder: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%
  • Jarren Duran: Swing 27.4%, In Play 8.8%

CIN @ NYM — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Abbott vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.8% (fair odds -116)

  • Andrew Abbott: Zone 46.2%, Ball 53.8%
  • Carson Benge: Swing 25.0%, In Play 2.9%

NYY @ KC — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Noah Cameron vs Trent Grisham Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.5% (fair odds -106)

  • Noah Cameron: Zone 48.5%, Ball 51.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph
  • Trent Grisham: Swing 16.9%, In Play 3.5%

MIN @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Davis Martin vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 23.0% (fair odds +335)

  • Davis Martin: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.6 mph
  • Byron Buxton: Swing 54.4%, In Play 23.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Connor Prielipp vs Chase Meidroth Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.1% (fair odds +520)

  • Connor Prielipp: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%
  • Chase Meidroth: Swing 32.5%, In Play 16.1%

HOU @ TEX — 8:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jacob deGrom vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 21.1% (fair odds +374)

  • Jacob deGrom: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.1 mph
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 38.4%, In Play 21.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Mike Burrows vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.6% (fair odds -116)

  • Mike Burrows: Zone 46.4%, Ball 53.6%
  • Joc Pederson: Swing 21.4%, In Play 0.0%

COL @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shohei Ohtani vs Jake McCarthy Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.0% (fair odds +108)

  • Shohei Ohtani: Zone 52.0%, Ball 48.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph
  • Jake McCarthy: Swing 66.7%, In Play 6.9%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

Discussion in the ATmosphere

Loading comments...