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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 30, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 30, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 30, 2026

May 29 Results: Strike Picks: 2/5 | Ball Picks: 4/7 | In Play Picks: 0/4 (1 fouled)

❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - In Play / ❌ Blake Dunn - Ball / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Spencer Horwitz - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ✅ Yandy Díaz - Ball / ✅ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Ball / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ Joc Pederson - Strike / ✅ Christian Yelich - Strike / ❌ Willy Adames - Strike / ✅ Ketel Marte - Ball / ✅ J.P. Crawford - Ball / ✅ Shohei Ohtani - Strike

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

LAA @ TB: Zach Neto vs Drew Rasmussen — 57.7% (fair odds -136) Rasmussen 73.2% zone, Neto swings 52.4% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

CHC @ STL: JJ Wetherholt vs Ben Brown — 57.9% (fair odds -138) Brown 57.9% ball rate, Wetherholt 33.3% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

ARI @ SEA: Ketel Marte vs Bryan Woo — 17.8% (fair odds +463) Marte 17.8% in-play projection vs Woo (94.9 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

DET @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Anthony Kay vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 24.7% (fair odds +305)

  • Anthony Kay: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.3 mph
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 34.6%, In Play 24.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Framber Valdez vs Chase Meidroth Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.5% (fair odds +470)

  • Framber Valdez: Zone 73.8%, Ball 26.2%
  • Chase Meidroth: Swing 31.7%, In Play 17.5%

TOR @ BAL — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brandon Young vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.3% (fair odds -159)

  • Brandon Young: Zone 68.4%, Ball 31.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
  • George Springer: Swing 32.4%, In Play 7.1%

KC @ TEX — 4:05 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Seth Lugo vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 72.1% (fair odds -258)

  • Seth Lugo: Zone 81.1%, Ball 18.9%
  • Joc Pederson: Swing 23.5%, In Play 9.0%

SD @ WSH — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Foster Griffin vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.9% (fair odds -149)

  • Foster Griffin: Zone 63.6%, Ball 36.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.0 mph
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 43.1%, In Play 3.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael King vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.3% (fair odds +652)

  • Michael King: Zone 61.5%, Ball 38.5%
  • James Wood: Swing 34.8%, In Play 13.3%

MIN @ PIT — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Mitch Keller vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.7% (fair odds +500)

  • Mitch Keller: Zone 58.1%, Ball 41.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph
  • Byron Buxton: Swing 52.7%, In Play 16.7%

MIL @ HOU — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Peter Lambert vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Strike — 100.0% (fair odds -9999)

  • Peter Lambert: Zone 100.0%, Ball 0.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph
  • Christian Yelich: Swing 20.0%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Sproat vs Taylor Trammell Projected: First Pitch Ball — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

  • Brandon Sproat: Zone 41.7%, Ball 58.3%
  • Taylor Trammell: Swing 40.0%, In Play 0.0%

MIA @ NYM — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Christian Scott vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.8% (fair odds +623)

  • Christian Scott: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.4 mph
  • Xavier Edwards: Swing 28.9%, In Play 13.8%

LAA @ TB — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.7% (fair odds -136)

  • Drew Rasmussen: Zone 73.2%, Ball 26.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
  • Zach Neto: Swing 52.4%, In Play 15.5%

ATL @ CIN — 7:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brady Singer vs Ronald Acuña Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.0% (fair odds +613)

  • Brady Singer: Zone 69.0%, Ball 31.0%, 1st pitch Sinker 92.5 mph
  • Ronald Acuña Jr.: Swing 47.3%, In Play 14.0%

CHC @ STL — 7:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Ben Brown vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Ball — 57.9% (fair odds -138)

  • Ben Brown: Zone 42.1%, Ball 57.9%
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 33.3%, In Play 6.4%

NYY @ OAK — 10:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): J.T. Ginn vs Trent Grisham Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.2% (fair odds -145)

  • J.T. Ginn: Zone 64.0%, Ball 36.0%, 1st pitch Sinker 93.4 mph
  • Trent Grisham: Swing 17.5%, In Play 4.8%

ARI @ SEA — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Bryan Woo vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.8% (fair odds +463)

  • Bryan Woo: Zone 63.4%, Ball 36.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 32.9%, In Play 17.8%

PHI @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Roki Sasaki vs Kyle Schwarber Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.1% (fair odds +112)

  • Roki Sasaki: Zone 52.9%, Ball 47.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.8 mph
  • Kyle Schwarber: Swing 31.2%, In Play 17.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.7% (fair odds +409)

  • Jesús Luzardo: Zone 65.9%, Ball 34.1%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 37.1%, In Play 19.7%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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