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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 31, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 31, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 31, 2026

May 30 Results: Strike Picks: 4/7 | Ball Picks: 1/3 | In Play Picks: 1/8 (3 fouled)

❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Chase Meidroth - Strike / ✅ Joc Pederson - Strike / ✅ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ❌ Travis Bazzana - Strike / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ✅ Christian Yelich - Strike / ✅ Jeremy Peña - Ball / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - Strike / ✅ Trent Grisham - Strike / ✅ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ❌ Kyle Schwarber - Ball / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - In Play

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

MIN @ PIT: Spencer Horwitz vs Zebby Matthews — 70.7% (fair odds -242) Matthews 73.7% zone, Horwitz swings 19.4% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

MIL @ HOU: Christian Yelich vs Tatsuya Imai — 83.3% (fair odds -499) Imai 83.3% ball rate, Yelich 18.2% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

MIN @ PIT: Byron Buxton vs Braxton Ashcraft — 19.4% (fair odds +415) Buxton 19.4% in-play projection vs Ashcraft (97.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

MIN @ PIT — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Braxton Ashcraft vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.4% (fair odds +415)

  • Braxton Ashcraft: Zone 63.2%, Ball 36.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.3 mph
  • Byron Buxton: Swing 53.2%, In Play 19.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Spencer Horwitz Projected: First Pitch Strike — 70.7% (fair odds -242)

  • Zebby Matthews: Zone 73.7%, Ball 26.3%
  • Spencer Horwitz: Swing 19.4%, In Play 3.0%

SD @ WSH — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Zack Littell vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.3% (fair odds +448)

  • Zack Littell: Zone 64.1%, Ball 35.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.1 mph
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.6%, In Play 18.3%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Griffin Canning vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.6% (fair odds +110)

  • Griffin Canning: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%
  • James Wood: Swing 34.3%, In Play 11.8%

BOS @ CLE — 1:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Ranger Suarez vs Travis Bazzana Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.9% (fair odds -177)

  • Ranger Suarez: Zone 63.9%, Ball 36.1%
  • Travis Bazzana: Swing 16.7%, In Play 0.0%

LAA @ TB — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shane McClanahan vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Shane McClanahan: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.5 mph
  • Zach Neto: Swing 52.8%, In Play 16.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jack Kochanowicz vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 29.2% (fair odds +242)

  • Jack Kochanowicz: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%
  • Yandy Díaz: Swing 37.5%, In Play 29.2%

ATL @ CIN — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Nick Lodolo vs Ronald Acuña Jr. Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.9% (fair odds +113)

  • Nick Lodolo: Zone 53.1%, Ball 46.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 93.6 mph
  • Ronald Acuña Jr.: Swing 33.3%, In Play 15.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Strider vs Blake Dunn Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.4% (fair odds +116)

  • Spencer Strider: Zone 53.6%, Ball 46.4%
  • Blake Dunn: Swing 40.0%, In Play 6.9%

DET @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sean Burke vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.9% (fair odds +529)

  • Sean Burke: Zone 62.1%, Ball 37.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.7 mph
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 30.4%, In Play 15.9%

MIL @ HOU — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Tatsuya Imai vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Ball — 83.3% (fair odds -499)

  • Tatsuya Imai: Zone 16.7%, Ball 83.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.0 mph
  • Christian Yelich: Swing 18.2%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch Ball — 60.0% (fair odds -150)

  • Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 40.0%, Ball 60.0%
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.3%, In Play 10.1%

KC @ TEX — 2:35 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Wacha vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 65.0% (fair odds -186)

  • Michael Wacha: Zone 73.2%, Ball 26.8%
  • Joc Pederson: Swing 22.2%, In Play 8.2%

SF @ COL — 3:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Tanner Gordon vs Willy Adames Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.3% (fair odds +553)

  • Tanner Gordon: Zone 68.8%, Ball 31.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.1 mph
  • Willy Adames: Swing 20.8%, In Play 15.3%

NYY @ OAK — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Lopez vs Paul Goldschmidt Projected: First Pitch Ball — 57.7% (fair odds -136)

  • Jacob Lopez: Zone 42.3%, Ball 57.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph
  • Paul Goldschmidt: Swing 34.1%, In Play 9.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Will Warren vs Carlos Cortes Projected: First Pitch Strike — 67.4% (fair odds -207)

  • Will Warren: Zone 81.8%, Ball 18.2%
  • Carlos Cortes: Swing 27.3%, In Play 14.4%

ARI @ SEA — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Bryce Miller vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.8% (fair odds +109)

  • Bryce Miller: Zone 52.2%, Ball 47.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.7 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 32.5%, In Play 15.5%

PHI @ LAD — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Kyle Schwarber Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.7% (fair odds +580)

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Zone 68.9%, Ball 31.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.2 mph
  • Kyle Schwarber: Swing 29.4%, In Play 14.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Painter vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.8% (fair odds -137)

  • Andrew Painter: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 22.7%, In Play 8.9%

CHC @ STL — 7:20 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Nico Hoerner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.9% (fair odds -170)

  • Matthew Liberatore: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.4 mph
  • Nico Hoerner: Swing 14.3%, In Play 9.6%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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