First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, June 4, 2026 | MLB Edge
First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, June 4, 2026
June 3 Results: Strike Picks: 4/6 | Ball Picks: 2/11 | In Play Picks: 1/7 (1 fouled)
❌ James Wood - In Play / ✅ Gleyber Torres - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - In Play / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Ball / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Ball / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ❌ Kyle Schwarber - Ball / ❌ Jarren Duran - Strike / ✅ Trent Grisham - Strike / ❌ Carter Jensen - Ball / ✅ Blake Dunn - Strike / ❌ Nathan Lukes - Ball / ❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - In Play / ❌ Christian Yelich - Ball / ❌ Joc Pederson - Ball / ✅ Carlos Cortes - Strike / ❌ Nico Hoerner - Ball / ✅ Spencer Horwitz - Strike / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Jake McCarthy - Ball / ❌ Jorge Soler - Strike / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ❌ Geraldo Perdomo - Ball
See full track record →
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Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks
Our highest-conviction plays from today's 9-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.
First Pitch Strike Picks
SF @ MIL: Christian Yelich vs Adrian Houser — 62.5% (fair odds -167) Houser 62.5% zone, Yelich swings 12.5% of the time
PIT @ HOU: Spencer Horwitz vs Kai-Wei Teng — 64.4% (fair odds -181) Teng 66.7% zone, Horwitz swings 22.5% of the time
First Pitch In Play Picks
KC @ MIN: Byron Buxton vs Seth Lugo — 24.6% (fair odds +306) Buxton 24.6% in-play projection vs Lugo (89.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)
📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.
🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →
Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections
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Busy morning, missed these early games. Lo siento edgers.
SD @ PHI — 1:05 PM ET
T1 (Top 1st): Zack Wheeler vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.0% (fair odds +567)
- Zack Wheeler: Zone 71.0%, Ball 29.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.2 mph
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.8%, In Play 15.0%
B1 (Bottom 1st): Lucas Giolito vs Kyle Schwarber Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.4% (fair odds -153)
- Lucas Giolito: Zone 65.5%, Ball 34.5%
- Kyle Schwarber: Swing 33.3%, In Play 5.1%
BAL @ BOS — 1:35 PM ET
T1 (Top 1st): Brayan Bello vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Strike — 69.0% (fair odds -223)
- Brayan Bello: Zone 78.3%, Ball 21.7%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.3 mph
- Taylor Ward: Swing 22.2%, In Play 9.3%
SF @ MIL — 2:10 PM ET
B1 (Bottom 1st): Adrian Houser vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.5% (fair odds -167)
- Adrian Houser: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%
- Christian Yelich: Swing 12.5%, In Play 0.0%
TOR @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET
T1 (Top 1st): Chris Sale vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch In Play — 25.7% (fair odds +289)
- Chris Sale: Zone 63.3%, Ball 36.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph
- George Springer: Swing 30.0%, In Play 25.7%
KC @ MIN — 7:40 PM ET
B1 (Bottom 1st): Seth Lugo vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 24.6% (fair odds +306)
- Seth Lugo: Zone 81.6%, Ball 18.4%
- Byron Buxton: Swing 52.0%, In Play 24.6%
OAK @ CHC — 8:05 PM ET
T1 (Top 1st): Shota Imanaga vs Colby Thomas Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.4% (fair odds +111)
- Shota Imanaga: Zone 52.6%, Ball 47.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph
- Colby Thomas: Swing 33.3%, In Play 8.9%
PIT @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET
T1 (Top 1st): Kai-Wei Teng vs Spencer Horwitz Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.4% (fair odds -181)
- Kai-Wei Teng: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.8 mph
- Spencer Horwitz: Swing 22.5%, In Play 2.3%
LAD @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET
B1 (Bottom 1st): Justin Wrobleski vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.4% (fair odds +511)
- Justin Wrobleski: Zone 54.5%, Ball 45.5%
- Ketel Marte: Swing 32.1%, In Play 16.4%
Live First Inning Data
For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:
→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)
edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.
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