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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 31, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-31-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-31T13:34:01.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 31, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 30 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 4/7 | Ball Picks: 1/3 | In Play Picks: 1/8 (3 fouled)\n>\n> ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Chase Meidroth - Strike / ✅ Joc Pederson - Strike / ✅ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ❌ Travis Bazzana - Strike / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ✅ Christian Yelich - Strike / ✅ Jeremy Peña - Ball / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - Strike / ✅ Trent Grisham - Strike / ✅ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ❌ Kyle Schwarber - Ball / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - In Play\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Strike Picks\n\n> **MIN @ PIT: Spencer Horwitz vs Zebby Matthews — 70.7% (fair odds -242)**\n>  Matthews 73.7% zone, Horwitz swings 19.4% of the time\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **MIL @ HOU: Christian Yelich vs Tatsuya Imai — 83.3% (fair odds -499)**\n>  Imai 83.3% ball rate, Yelich 18.2% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **MIN @ PIT: Byron Buxton vs Braxton Ashcraft — 19.4% (fair odds +415)**\n>  Buxton 19.4% in-play projection vs Ashcraft (97.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### MIN @ PIT — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Braxton Ashcraft vs Byron Buxton**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.4%** (fair odds +415)\n\n  * Braxton Ashcraft: Zone 63.2%, Ball 36.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.3 mph\n  * Byron Buxton: Swing 53.2%, In Play 19.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Spencer Horwitz**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 70.7%** (fair odds -242)\n\n  * Zebby Matthews: Zone 73.7%, Ball 26.3%\n  * Spencer Horwitz: Swing 19.4%, In Play 3.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SD @ WSH — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Zack Littell vs Fernando Tatis Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.3%** (fair odds +448)\n\n  * Zack Littell: Zone 64.1%, Ball 35.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.1 mph\n  * Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.6%, In Play 18.3%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Griffin Canning vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 47.6%** (fair odds +110)\n\n  * Griffin Canning: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%\n  * James Wood: Swing 34.3%, In Play 11.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BOS @ CLE — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Ranger Suarez vs Travis Bazzana**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 63.9%** (fair odds -177)\n\n  * Ranger Suarez: Zone 63.9%, Ball 36.1%\n  * Travis Bazzana: Swing 16.7%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAA @ TB — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Shane McClanahan vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Shane McClanahan: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.5 mph\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 52.8%, In Play 16.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jack Kochanowicz vs Yandy Díaz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 29.2%** (fair odds +242)\n\n  * Jack Kochanowicz: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%\n  * Yandy Díaz: Swing 37.5%, In Play 29.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ATL @ CIN — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Nick Lodolo vs Ronald Acuña Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.9%** (fair odds +113)\n\n  * Nick Lodolo: Zone 53.1%, Ball 46.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 93.6 mph\n  * Ronald Acuña Jr.: Swing 33.3%, In Play 15.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Strider vs Blake Dunn**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.4%** (fair odds +116)\n\n  * Spencer Strider: Zone 53.6%, Ball 46.4%\n  * Blake Dunn: Swing 40.0%, In Play 6.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### DET @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Sean Burke vs Kevin McGonigle**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.9%** (fair odds +529)\n\n  * Sean Burke: Zone 62.1%, Ball 37.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.7 mph\n  * Kevin McGonigle: Swing 30.4%, In Play 15.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIL @ HOU — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Tatsuya Imai vs Christian Yelich**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 83.3%** (fair odds -499)\n\n  * Tatsuya Imai: Zone 16.7%, Ball 83.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.0 mph\n  * Christian Yelich: Swing 18.2%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs Jeremy Peña**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 60.0%** (fair odds -150)\n\n  * Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 40.0%, Ball 60.0%\n  * Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.3%, In Play 10.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### KC @ TEX — 2:35 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Wacha vs Joc Pederson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 65.0%** (fair odds -186)\n\n  * Michael Wacha: Zone 73.2%, Ball 26.8%\n  * Joc Pederson: Swing 22.2%, In Play 8.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ COL — 3:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Tanner Gordon vs Willy Adames**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.3%** (fair odds +553)\n\n  * Tanner Gordon: Zone 68.8%, Ball 31.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.1 mph\n  * Willy Adames: Swing 20.8%, In Play 15.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ OAK — 4:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Lopez vs Paul Goldschmidt**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 57.7%** (fair odds -136)\n\n  * Jacob Lopez: Zone 42.3%, Ball 57.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph\n  * Paul Goldschmidt: Swing 34.1%, In Play 9.9%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Will Warren vs Carlos Cortes**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 67.4%** (fair odds -207)\n\n  * Will Warren: Zone 81.8%, Ball 18.2%\n  * Carlos Cortes: Swing 27.3%, In Play 14.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ARI @ SEA — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Bryce Miller vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 47.8%** (fair odds +109)\n\n  * Bryce Miller: Zone 52.2%, Ball 47.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.7 mph\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 32.5%, In Play 15.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PHI @ LAD — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Kyle Schwarber**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.7%** (fair odds +580)\n\n  * Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Zone 68.9%, Ball 31.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.2 mph\n  * Kyle Schwarber: Swing 29.4%, In Play 14.7%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Painter vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.8%** (fair odds -137)\n\n  * Andrew Painter: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 22.7%, In Play 8.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CHC @ STL — 7:20 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Nico Hoerner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 62.9%** (fair odds -170)\n\n  * Matthew Liberatore: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.4 mph\n  * Nico Hoerner: Swing 14.3%, In Play 9.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 31, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-31T13:34:02.310Z"
}