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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 29, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 29, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 29, 2026

May 28 Results: Strike Picks: 1/4 | Ball Picks: 0/1 | In Play Picks: 0/3 (0 fouled)

❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - In Play / ❌ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Taylor Ward - Strike / ✅ Spencer Horwitz - Strike / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Joc Pederson - Strike

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

LAA @ TB: Chandler Simpson vs Walbert Ureña — 85.7% (fair odds -599) Ureña 85.7% ball rate, Simpson 17.3% swing tendency

ATL @ CIN: Blake Dunn vs Grant Holmes — 51.6% (fair odds -107) Holmes 51.6% ball rate, Dunn 25.0% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

NYY @ OAK: Shea Langeliers vs Carlos Rodón — 21.1% (fair odds +373) Langeliers 21.1% in-play projection vs Rodón (92.7 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

ATL @ CIN — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Chris Paddack vs Ronald Acuña Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.7% (fair odds +407)

  • Chris Paddack: Zone 77.8%, Ball 22.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.4 mph
  • Ronald Acuña Jr.: Swing 47.3%, In Play 19.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Grant Holmes vs Blake Dunn Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.6% (fair odds -107)

  • Grant Holmes: Zone 48.4%, Ball 51.6%
  • Blake Dunn: Swing 25.0%, In Play 3.3%

MIN @ PIT — 6:45 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Taj Bradley vs Spencer Horwitz Projected: First Pitch Ball — 52.8% (fair odds -112)

  • Taj Bradley: Zone 47.2%, Ball 52.8%
  • Spencer Horwitz: Swing 20.0%, In Play 2.0%

SD @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Lucas Giolito vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.5% (fair odds +592)

  • Lucas Giolito: Zone 67.9%, Ball 32.1%
  • James Wood: Swing 34.8%, In Play 14.5%

TOR @ BAL — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Trevor Rogers vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch In Play — 25.0% (fair odds +300)

  • Trevor Rogers: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.6 mph
  • George Springer: Swing 31.6%, In Play 25.0%

LAA @ TB — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Nick Martinez vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.6% (fair odds +468)

  • Nick Martinez: Zone 69.4%, Ball 30.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.3 mph
  • Zach Neto: Swing 52.4%, In Play 17.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Walbert Ureña vs Chandler Simpson Projected: First Pitch Ball — 85.7% (fair odds -599)

  • Walbert Ureña: Zone 14.3%, Ball 85.7%
  • Chandler Simpson: Swing 17.3%, In Play 2.5%

CHC @ STL — 7:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Andre Pallante vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.8% (fair odds +105)

  • Andre Pallante: Zone 51.2%, Ball 48.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 35.7%, In Play 4.3%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Shota Imanaga vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.6% (fair odds +106)

  • Shota Imanaga: Zone 51.4%, Ball 48.6%
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 33.3%, In Play 9.0%

DET @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Troy Melton vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Strike — 95.6% (fair odds -2192)

  • Troy Melton: Zone 100.0%, Ball 0.0%
  • Sam Antonacci: Swing 27.8%, In Play 4.4%

KC @ TEX — 8:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): MacKenzie Gore vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.2% (fair odds +557)

  • MacKenzie Gore: Zone 56.1%, Ball 43.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.1 mph
  • Maikel Garcia: Swing 29.6%, In Play 15.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Stephen Kolek vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 65.7% (fair odds -191)

  • Stephen Kolek: Zone 73.9%, Ball 26.1%
  • Joc Pederson: Swing 23.5%, In Play 8.2%

MIL @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kai-Wei Teng vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.6% (fair odds -175)

  • Kai-Wei Teng: Zone 63.6%, Ball 36.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.7 mph
  • Christian Yelich: Swing 20.0%, In Play 0.0%

NYY @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Carlos Rodón vs Shea Langeliers Projected: First Pitch In Play — 21.1% (fair odds +373)

  • Carlos Rodón: Zone 76.3%, Ball 23.7%
  • Shea Langeliers: Swing 42.1%, In Play 21.1%

ARI @ SEA — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): George Kirby vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.4% (fair odds +111)

  • George Kirby: Zone 52.6%, Ball 47.4%, 1st pitch Sinker 96.3 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 32.9%, In Play 12.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zac Gallen vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Zac Gallen: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 36.8%, In Play 9.0%

PHI @ LAD — 10:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zack Wheeler vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.5% (fair odds -153)

  • Zack Wheeler: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 22.2%, In Play 9.5%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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