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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Tuesday, May 26, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 26, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Tuesday, May 26, 2026

May 25 Results: Strike Picks: 3/3 | Ball Picks: 1/7 | In Play Picks: 2/9 (1 fouled)

❌ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Ball / ❌ Spencer Horwitz - Ball / ❌ Chandler Simpson - In Play / ❌ Taylor Ward - Ball / ✅ Byron Buxton - In Play / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ✅ Trent Grisham - Strike / ❌ Maikel Garcia - In Play / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Trea Turner - Ball / ✅ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ❌ Jake McCarthy - Ball / ❌ J.P. Crawford - Ball / ✅ Carlos Cortes - Strike

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

HOU @ TEX: Joc Pederson vs Jason Alexander — 85.7% (fair odds -599) Alexander 85.7% zone, Pederson swings 21.4% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

NYY @ KC: Paul Goldschmidt vs Bailey Falter — 64.0% (fair odds -178) Falter 64.0% ball rate, Goldschmidt 34.9% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

WSH @ CLE: James Wood vs Joey Cantillo — 19.2% (fair odds +422) Wood 19.2% in-play projection vs Cantillo (90.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

WSH @ CLE — 6:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Joey Cantillo vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.2% (fair odds +422)

  • Joey Cantillo: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph
  • James Wood: Swing 31.0%, In Play 19.2%

TB @ BAL — 6:35 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Griffin Jax vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.6% (fair odds -182)

  • Griffin Jax: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%
  • Taylor Ward: Swing 24.2%, In Play 6.8%

LAA @ DET — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Keider Montero vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.7% (fair odds +538)

  • Keider Montero: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.1 mph
  • Zach Neto: Swing 52.8%, In Play 15.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jack Kochanowicz vs Colt Keith Projected: First Pitch Strike — 65.6% (fair odds -191)

  • Jack Kochanowicz: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%
  • Colt Keith: Swing 11.9%, In Play 9.4%

ATL @ BOS — 6:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ranger Suarez vs Ronald Acuña Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.4% (fair odds +509)

  • Ranger Suarez: Zone 62.9%, Ball 37.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph
  • Ronald Acuña Jr.: Swing 33.3%, In Play 16.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Strider vs Jarren Duran Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.1% (fair odds +108)

  • Spencer Strider: Zone 51.9%, Ball 48.1%
  • Jarren Duran: Swing 27.4%, In Play 9.1%

MIA @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.0% (fair odds -156)

  • Sandy Alcantara: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%
  • George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 10.4%

CIN @ NYM — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Chase Burns vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Chase Burns: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Carson Benge: Swing 25.0%, In Play 0.0%

STL @ MIL — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Harrison vs Masyn Winn Projected: First Pitch Strike — 83.7% (fair odds -512)

  • Kyle Harrison: Zone 92.9%, Ball 7.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.2 mph
  • Masyn Winn: Swing 25.0%, In Play 9.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael McGreevy vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch In Play — 29.6% (fair odds +237)

  • Michael McGreevy: Zone 80.0%, Ball 20.0%
  • Jackson Chourio: Swing 43.8%, In Play 29.6%

MIN @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sean Burke vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.2% (fair odds +449)

  • Sean Burke: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.7 mph
  • Byron Buxton: Swing 54.4%, In Play 18.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Joe Ryan vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

  • Joe Ryan: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%
  • Sam Antonacci: Swing 31.2%, In Play 11.7%

NYY @ KC — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Bailey Falter vs Paul Goldschmidt Projected: First Pitch Ball — 64.0% (fair odds -178)

  • Bailey Falter: Zone 36.0%, Ball 64.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph
  • Paul Goldschmidt: Swing 34.9%, In Play 7.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Cam Schlittler vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Cam Schlittler: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Maikel Garcia: Swing 28.9%, In Play 10.9%

HOU @ TEX — 8:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jack Leiter vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.7% (fair odds +580)

  • Jack Leiter: Zone 57.9%, Ball 42.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.9 mph
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 38.4%, In Play 14.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jason Alexander vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 85.7% (fair odds -599)

  • Jason Alexander: Zone 85.7%, Ball 14.3%
  • Joc Pederson: Swing 21.4%, In Play 0.0%

PHI @ SD — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Randy Vásquez vs Trea Turner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.2% (fair odds -145)

  • Randy Vásquez: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph
  • Trea Turner: Swing 26.4%, In Play 9.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Aaron Nola vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.6% (fair odds +501)

  • Aaron Nola: Zone 63.0%, Ball 37.0%
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 38.3%, In Play 16.6%

SEA @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Emerson Hancock vs Carlos Cortes Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.0% (fair odds -150)

  • Emerson Hancock: Zone 72.0%, Ball 28.0%
  • Carlos Cortes: Swing 22.2%, In Play 12.0%

ARI @ SF — 9:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Tyler Mahle vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.1% (fair odds +353)

  • Tyler Mahle: Zone 64.0%, Ball 36.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.2 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 32.5%, In Play 22.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Willy Adames Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.7% (fair odds +105)

  • Eduardo Rodriguez: Zone 51.3%, Ball 48.7%
  • Willy Adames: Swing 14.3%, In Play 5.4%

COL @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Freeland vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.6% (fair odds +411)

  • Kyle Freeland: Zone 68.4%, Ball 31.6%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 37.7%, In Play 19.6%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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