External Publication
Visit Post

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Tuesday, May 19, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 19, 2026
Source

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Tuesday, May 19, 2026

May 18 Results:

Strike Picks: 2/4 | Ball Picks: 2/5 | In Play Picks: 0/7 (2 fouled)

✅ Angel Martínez - Strike / ❌ Taylor Ward - Ball / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Matt McLain - In Play / ❌ Trea Turner - Ball / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ❌ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Jarren Duran - Strike / ❌ Maikel Garcia - In Play / ❌ Jackson Chourio - Ball / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ✅ Jung Hoo Lee - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

BOS @ KC: Jarren Duran vs Bailey Falter — 62.5% (fair odds -167) Falter 62.5% ball rate, Duran 26.3% swing tendency

HOU @ MIN: Austin Martin vs Lance McCullers Jr. — 61.9% (fair odds -162) Jr. 61.9% ball rate, Martin 28.6% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

BOS @ KC: Maikel Garcia vs Ranger Suarez — 18.8% (fair odds +433) Garcia 18.8% in-play projection vs Suarez (90.6 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

ATL @ MIA — 4:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Martín Pérez vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.9% (fair odds -137)

  • Martín Pérez: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%
  • Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.6%, In Play 15.4%

CIN @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Dane Myers Projected: First Pitch In Play — 23.0% (fair odds +336)

  • Jesús Luzardo: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.3 mph
  • Dane Myers: Swing 42.9%, In Play 23.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Chase Burns vs Trea Turner Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.1% (fair odds +112)

  • Chase Burns: Zone 52.9%, Ball 47.1%
  • Trea Turner: Swing 25.3%, In Play 5.6%

CLE @ DET — 6:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Parker Messick vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 20.5% (fair odds +388)

  • Parker Messick: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 33.3%, In Play 20.5%

BAL @ TB — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Griffin Jax vs Gunnar Henderson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 69.6% (fair odds -229)

  • Griffin Jax: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.1 mph
  • Gunnar Henderson: Swing 38.2%, In Play 13.7%

TOR @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Dylan Cease vs Trent Grisham Projected: First Pitch Ball — 54.8% (fair odds -121)

  • Dylan Cease: Zone 45.2%, Ball 54.8%
  • Trent Grisham: Swing 15.6%, In Play 2.9%

MIL @ CHC — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ben Brown vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch Ball — 64.7% (fair odds -183)

  • Ben Brown: Zone 35.3%, Ball 64.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.3 mph
  • Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.8%, In Play 9.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs Nico Hoerner Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.8% (fair odds -126)

  • Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 44.2%, Ball 55.8%
  • Nico Hoerner: Swing 6.7%, In Play 6.3%

HOU @ MIN — 7:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Lance McCullers Jr. vs Austin Martin Projected: First Pitch Ball — 61.9% (fair odds -162)

  • Lance McCullers Jr.: Zone 38.1%, Ball 61.9%
  • Austin Martin: Swing 28.6%, In Play 2.4%

BOS @ KC — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Bailey Falter vs Jarren Duran Projected: First Pitch Ball — 62.5% (fair odds -167)

  • Bailey Falter: Zone 37.5%, Ball 62.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph
  • Jarren Duran: Swing 26.3%, In Play 5.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Ranger Suarez vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.8% (fair odds +433)

  • Ranger Suarez: Zone 61.8%, Ball 38.2%
  • Maikel Garcia: Swing 30.8%, In Play 18.8%

PIT @ STL — 7:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Oneil Cruz Projected: First Pitch Strike — 63.0% (fair odds -170)

  • Matthew Liberatore: Zone 76.3%, Ball 23.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph
  • Oneil Cruz: Swing 50.0%, In Play 13.3%

OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Reid Detmers vs Shea Langeliers Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.6% (fair odds -125)

  • Reid Detmers: Zone 44.4%, Ball 55.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.9 mph
  • Shea Langeliers: Swing 38.9%, In Play 5.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jacob Lopez vs Vaughn Grissom Projected: First Pitch Ball — 56.0% (fair odds -127)

  • Jacob Lopez: Zone 44.0%, Ball 56.0%
  • Vaughn Grissom: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%

LAD @ SD — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Griffin Canning vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Ball — 52.6% (fair odds -111)

  • Griffin Canning: Zone 47.4%, Ball 52.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.2 mph
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.6%, In Play 6.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Emmet Sheehan vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.0% (fair odds -122)

  • Emmet Sheehan: Zone 45.0%, Ball 55.0%
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 39.3%, In Play 12.4%

CWS @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Bryce Miller vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Bryce Miller: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.6 mph
  • Sam Antonacci: Swing 25.0%, In Play 7.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Anthony Kay vs J.P. Crawford Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.8% (fair odds +431)

  • Anthony Kay: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%
  • J.P. Crawford: Swing 38.1%, In Play 18.8%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

Discussion in the ATmosphere

Loading comments...