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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 15, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 15, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 15, 2026

May 14 Results: Strike Picks: 2/3 | Ball Picks: 3/7 | In Play Picks: 0/1

❌ Oneil Cruz - Strike / ❌ James Wood - Ball / ✅ Xavier Edwards - Strike / ✅ Jackson Chourio - Ball / ✅ Brendan Donovan - Ball / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ❌ Drake Baldwin - Ball / ❌ Maikel Garcia - Ball / ❌ Jung Hoo Lee - Ball

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch In Play Picks

ARI @ COL: Ketel Marte vs Kyle Freeland — 23.3% (fair odds +329) Marte 23.3% in-play projection vs Freeland (90.1 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

KC @ STL: JJ Wetherholt vs Michael Wacha — 19.0% (fair odds +427) Wetherholt 19.0% in-play projection vs Wacha (91.6 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

MIL @ MIN: Jackson Chourio vs Joe Ryan — 16.1% (fair odds +519) Chourio 16.1% in-play projection vs Ryan (93.1 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

BAL @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Shane Baz vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.5% (fair odds +589)

Shane Baz: Zone 56.4%, Ball 43.6%
James Wood: Swing 35.1%, In Play 14.5%

TOR @ DET — 6:45 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Trey Yesavage vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.3% (fair odds +445)

Trey Yesavage: Zone 63.6%, Ball 36.4%
Kevin McGonigle: Swing 30.0%, In Play 18.3%

CIN @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Abbott vs Steven Kwan Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.3% (fair odds -124)

Andrew Abbott: Zone 44.7%, Ball 55.3%
Steven Kwan: Swing 3.8%, In Play 1.6%

MIL @ MIN — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Joe Ryan vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.1% (fair odds +519)

Joe Ryan: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.1 mph
Jackson Chourio: Swing 43.2%, In Play 16.1%

NYY @ NYM — 7:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Cam Schlittler vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.0% (fair odds +108)

Cam Schlittler: Zone 52.0%, Ball 48.0%
Carson Benge: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%

CHC @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sean Burke vs Nico Hoerner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.0% (fair odds -138)

Sean Burke: Zone 63.5%, Ball 36.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph
Nico Hoerner: Swing 3.8%, In Play 5.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Edward Cabrera vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.3% (fair odds -158)

Edward Cabrera: Zone 73.5%, Ball 26.5%
Sam Antonacci: Swing 12.5%, In Play 12.2%

TEX @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 75.0% (fair odds -300)

Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph
Joc Pederson: Swing 22.2%, In Play 0.0%

KC @ STL — 8:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Wacha vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.0% (fair odds +427)

Michael Wacha: Zone 74.4%, Ball 25.6%
JJ Wetherholt: Swing 35.3%, In Play 19.0%

ARI @ COL — 8:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Freeland vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 23.3% (fair odds +329)

Kyle Freeland: Zone 70.3%, Ball 29.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.1 mph
Ketel Marte: Swing 35.3%, In Play 23.3%

LAD @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jack Kochanowicz vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 67.5% (fair odds -208)

Jack Kochanowicz: Zone 77.4%, Ball 22.6%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.9 mph
Shohei Ohtani: Swing 22.2%, In Play 9.9%

SD @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Emerson Hancock vs Jackson Merrill Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.3% (fair odds +418)

Emerson Hancock: Zone 70.8%, Ball 29.2%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.5 mph
Jackson Merrill: Swing 77.8%, In Play 19.3%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Randy Vásquez vs Brendan Donovan Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.2% (fair odds +557)

Randy Vásquez: Zone 67.6%, Ball 32.4%
Brendan Donovan: Swing 34.5%, In Play 15.2%

SF @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Civale vs Jung Hoo Lee Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.8% (fair odds -116)

Aaron Civale: Zone 46.2%, Ball 53.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph
Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 17.9%, In Play 5.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Mahle vs Nick Kurtz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.5% (fair odds +440)

Tyler Mahle: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%
Nick Kurtz: Swing 41.0%, In Play 18.5%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.