{
  "$type": "site.standard.document",
  "bskyPostRef": {
    "cid": "bafyreidtdkac6rfq5qbd6ojoy5lk6asmdk5nugddaif5hdhaalal7w7qju",
    "uri": "at://did:plc:4gtoexavzutfsu6o3gozmuum/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmowhgdpyfu2"
  },
  "coverImage": {
    "$type": "blob",
    "ref": {
      "$link": "bafkreih35fkhp7srmgymtf2pj2x6oavzvv6r2ea2nmbtmfuhh7kwudmxh4"
    },
    "mimeType": "image/jpeg",
    "size": 2088386
  },
  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 25, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-25-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-25T16:45:19.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 25, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 24 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 4/6 | Ball Picks: 1/3 | In Play Picks: 2/8 (0 fouled)\n>\n> ❌ Spencer Horwitz - Ball / ✅ Taylor Ward - Strike / ❌ Austin Martin - In Play / ✅ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ✅ Trent Grisham - Strike / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Strike / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ❌ Maikel Garcia - In Play / ✅ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ✅ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ❌ Brice Matthews - Ball / ✅ Pete Crow-Armstrong - Strike / ❌ Willy Adames - Strike / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ✅ Taylor Ward - Strike / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n### Winning Slips 💰\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 13-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **STL @ MIL: JJ Wetherholt vs Jacob Misiorowski — 58.3% (fair odds -140)**\n>  Misiorowski 58.3% ball rate, Wetherholt 35.0% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **STL @ MIL: Jackson Chourio vs Matthew Liberatore — 22.8% (fair odds +339)**\n>  Chourio 22.8% in-play projection vs Liberatore (93.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **NYY @ KC: Maikel Garcia vs Will Warren — 17.6% (fair odds +467)**\n>  Garcia 17.6% in-play projection vs Warren (93.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### CHC @ PIT — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Carmen Mlodzinski vs Pete Crow-Armstrong**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 47.4%** (fair odds +111)\n\n  * Carmen Mlodzinski: Zone 52.6%, Ball 47.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph\n  * Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 20.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Ben Brown vs Spencer Horwitz**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 61.1%** (fair odds -157)\n\n  * Ben Brown: Zone 38.9%, Ball 61.1%\n  * Spencer Horwitz: Swing 18.8%, In Play 1.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TB @ BAL — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Shane McClanahan vs Taylor Ward**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.6%** (fair odds -125)\n\n  * Shane McClanahan: Zone 44.4%, Ball 55.6%\n  * Taylor Ward: Swing 35.3%, In Play 1.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIN @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Anthony Kay vs Byron Buxton**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.4%** (fair odds +509)\n\n  * Anthony Kay: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph\n  * Byron Buxton: Swing 57.9%, In Play 16.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Sam Antonacci**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 63.2%** (fair odds -172)\n\n  * Zebby Matthews: Zone 72.2%, Ball 27.8%\n  * Sam Antonacci: Swing 26.7%, In Play 9.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### STL @ MIL — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 58.3%** (fair odds -140)\n\n  * Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 41.7%, Ball 58.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 100.6 mph\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 35.0%, In Play 6.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Jackson Chourio**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.8%** (fair odds +339)\n\n  * Matthew Liberatore: Zone 74.4%, Ball 25.6%\n  * Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.3%, In Play 22.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ KC — 3:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Michael Wacha vs Trent Grisham**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 67.1%** (fair odds -204)\n\n  * Michael Wacha: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph\n  * Trent Grisham: Swing 16.8%, In Play 5.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Will Warren vs Maikel Garcia**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.6%** (fair odds +467)\n\n  * Will Warren: Zone 81.4%, Ball 18.6%\n  * Maikel Garcia: Swing 27.3%, In Play 17.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ARI @ SF — 5:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Landen Roupp vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.1%** (fair odds +454)\n\n  * Landen Roupp: Zone 65.6%, Ball 34.4%, 1st pitch Sinker 92.9 mph\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 32.9%, In Play 18.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### WSH @ CLE — 6:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Tanner Bibee vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.5%** (fair odds +591)\n\n  * Tanner Bibee: Zone 59.5%, Ball 40.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph\n  * James Wood: Swing 35.9%, In Play 14.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PHI @ SD — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Randy Vásquez vs Trea Turner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 59.1%** (fair odds -144)\n\n  * Randy Vásquez: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph\n  * Trea Turner: Swing 25.6%, In Play 9.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Fernando Tatis Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.6%** (fair odds -136)\n\n  * Jesús Luzardo: Zone 65.1%, Ball 34.9%\n  * Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 40.8%, In Play 7.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### HOU @ TEX — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Jeremy Peña**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.4%** (fair odds +549)\n\n  * Kumar Rocker: Zone 59.1%, Ball 40.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.2 mph\n  * Jeremy Peña: Swing 38.8%, In Play 15.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### COL @ LAD — 9:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Emmet Sheehan vs Jake McCarthy**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 57.1%** (fair odds -133)\n\n  * Emmet Sheehan: Zone 42.9%, Ball 57.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.9 mph\n  * Jake McCarthy: Swing 62.5%, In Play 3.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Tanner Gordon vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 58.3%** (fair odds -140)\n\n  * Tanner Gordon: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.9%, In Play 8.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SEA @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Civale vs J.P. Crawford**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 51.9%** (fair odds -108)\n\n  * Aaron Civale: Zone 48.1%, Ball 51.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph\n  * J.P. Crawford: Swing 37.3%, In Play 10.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 25, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-25T16:45:19.983Z"
}