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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 22, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 22, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 22, 2026

May 21 Results: Strike Picks: 1/2 | Ball Picks: 0/2 | In Play Picks: 1/4 (2 fouled)

❌ Matt Vierling - In Play / ❌ Oneil Cruz - Ball / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ✅ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - In Play / ❌ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Willi Castro - Ball

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

DET @ BAL: Taylor Ward vs Jack Flaherty — 48.8% (fair odds +105) Flaherty 48.8% ball rate, Ward 22.6% swing tendency

SEA @ KC: Rob Refsnyder vs Noah Cameron — 53.1% (fair odds -113) Cameron 53.1% ball rate, Refsnyder 29.2% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

LAD @ MIL: Jackson Chourio vs Justin Wrobleski — 19.5% (fair odds +413) Chourio 19.5% in-play projection vs Wrobleski (92.9 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

HOU @ CHC — 2:20 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jameson Taillon vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.6% (fair odds +585)

Jameson Taillon: Zone 61.8%, Ball 38.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.8 mph
Jeremy Peña: Swing 38.6%, In Play 14.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs Nico Hoerner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.8% (fair odds -149)

Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 69.8%, Ball 30.2%
Nico Hoerner: Swing 6.5%, In Play 10.1%

CLE @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Cristopher Sánchez vs Angel Martínez Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.7% (fair odds -136)

Cristopher Sánchez: Zone 65.9%, Ball 34.1%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.6 mph
Angel Martínez: Swing 20.0%, In Play 8.2%

STL @ CIN — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Chris Paddack vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.9% (fair odds -169)

Chris Paddack: Zone 77.1%, Ball 22.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.4 mph
JJ Wetherholt: Swing 34.2%, In Play 14.2%

TB @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Nick Martinez vs Ben Rice Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.5% (fair odds +344)

Nick Martinez: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%
Ben Rice: Swing 26.1%, In Play 22.5%

PIT @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Bubba Chandler vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Strike — 70.8% (fair odds -243)

Bubba Chandler: Zone 84.6%, Ball 15.4%
George Springer: Swing 33.8%, In Play 13.8%

MIN @ BOS — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Payton Tolle vs Austin Martin Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.7% (fair odds +341)

Payton Tolle: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.0 mph
Austin Martin: Swing 28.6%, In Play 22.7%

NYM @ MIA — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Eury Pérez vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.3% (fair odds -114)

Eury Pérez: Zone 46.7%, Ball 53.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.6 mph
Carson Benge: Swing 25.0%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tobias Myers vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.3% (fair odds +651)

Tobias Myers: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%
Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.2%, In Play 13.3%

WSH @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Miles Mikolas vs Ronald Acuña Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.2% (fair odds +482)

Miles Mikolas: Zone 73.0%, Ball 27.0%
Ronald Acuña Jr.: Swing 48.1%, In Play 17.2%

DET @ BAL — 7:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Chris Bassitt vs Colt Keith Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.8% (fair odds -169)

Chris Bassitt: Zone 71.8%, Ball 28.2%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.3 mph
Colt Keith: Swing 11.9%, In Play 9.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jack Flaherty vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.8% (fair odds +105)

Jack Flaherty: Zone 51.2%, Ball 48.8%
Taylor Ward: Swing 22.6%, In Play 5.4%

LAD @ MIL — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Logan Henderson vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 68.0% (fair odds -212)

Logan Henderson: Zone 77.8%, Ball 22.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.4 mph
Shohei Ohtani: Swing 22.1%, In Play 9.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Justin Wrobleski vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.5% (fair odds +413)

Justin Wrobleski: Zone 55.6%, Ball 44.4%
Jackson Chourio: Swing 50.0%, In Play 19.5%

SEA @ KC — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Noah Cameron vs Rob Refsnyder Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.1% (fair odds -113)

Noah Cameron: Zone 46.9%, Ball 53.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph
Rob Refsnyder: Swing 29.2%, In Play 10.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.3% (fair odds -124)

Logan Gilbert: Zone 44.7%, Ball 55.3%
Maikel Garcia: Swing 29.3%, In Play 9.6%

TEX @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jacob deGrom vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.8% (fair odds -137)

Jacob deGrom: Zone 74.4%, Ball 25.6%
Zach Neto: Swing 52.1%, In Play 16.6%

COL @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tomoyuki Sugano vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.2% (fair odds +116)

Tomoyuki Sugano: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%
Ketel Marte: Swing 32.9%, In Play 17.1%

OAK @ SD — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Walker Buehler vs Carlos Cortes Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.5% (fair odds -106)

Walker Buehler: Zone 48.5%, Ball 51.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph
Carlos Cortes: Swing 40.0%, In Play 15.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jeffrey Springs vs Xander Bogaerts Projected: First Pitch Ball — 52.5% (fair odds -111)

Jeffrey Springs: Zone 47.5%, Ball 52.5%
Xander Bogaerts: Swing 50.0%, In Play 15.1%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.