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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 18, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 18, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 18, 2026

May 17 Results: Strike Picks: 1/4 | Ball Picks: 2/5 | In Play Picks: 1/7

❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - Ball / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ✅ Oneil Cruz - Strike / ❌ Jarren Duran - Ball / ❌ Drake Baldwin - Strike / ✅ Yohendrick Piñango - Ball / ✅ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - In Play / ❌ Edouard Julien - In Play / ✅ Harrison Bader - Ball / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 14-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch In Play Picks

BAL @ TB: Yandy Díaz vs Trevor Rogers — 15.2% (fair odds +557) Díaz 15.2% in-play projection vs Rogers (92.7 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

BOS @ KC: Maikel Garcia vs Sonny Gray — 17.9% (fair odds +457) Garcia 17.9% in-play projection vs Gray (91.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

CWS @ SEA: Rob Refsnyder vs Noah Schultz — 27.2% (fair odds +267) Refsnyder 27.2% in-play projection vs Schultz (95.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

BAL @ TB — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shane McClanahan vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Ball — 62.5% (fair odds -167)

  • Shane McClanahan: Zone 37.5%, Ball 62.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.5 mph
  • Taylor Ward: Swing 33.3%, In Play 1.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Trevor Rogers vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.2% (fair odds +557)

  • Trevor Rogers: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%
  • Yandy Díaz: Swing 21.6%, In Play 15.2%

CLE @ DET — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Framber Valdez vs Angel Martínez Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.2% (fair odds -164)

  • Framber Valdez: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%, 1st pitch Sinker 93.2 mph
  • Angel Martínez: Swing 22.2%, In Play 10.3%

CIN @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Andrew Painter vs Matt McLain Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.2% (fair odds +658)

  • Andrew Painter: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.3 mph
  • Matt McLain: Swing 50.0%, In Play 13.2%

NYM @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jake Irvin vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.9% (fair odds -162)

  • Jake Irvin: Zone 61.9%, Ball 38.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.2 mph
  • Carson Benge: Swing 11.1%, In Play 0.0%

TOR @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Weathers vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch In Play — 25.0% (fair odds +301)

  • Ryan Weathers: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.0 mph
  • George Springer: Swing 35.3%, In Play 25.0%

BOS @ KC — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Seth Lugo vs Jarren Duran Projected: First Pitch Strike — 67.4% (fair odds -207)

  • Seth Lugo: Zone 82.9%, Ball 17.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 89.3 mph
  • Jarren Duran: Swing 27.3%, In Play 15.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sonny Gray vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.9% (fair odds +457)

  • Sonny Gray: Zone 76.9%, Ball 23.1%
  • Maikel Garcia: Swing 30.0%, In Play 17.9%

MIL @ CHC — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shota Imanaga vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.4% (fair odds -106)

  • Shota Imanaga: Zone 48.6%, Ball 51.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph
  • Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.1%, In Play 12.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Sproat vs Nico Hoerner Projected: First Pitch Ball — 49.3% (fair odds +103)

  • Brandon Sproat: Zone 50.7%, Ball 49.3%
  • Nico Hoerner: Swing 6.9%, In Play 7.3%

TEX @ COL — 8:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jose Quintana vs Brandon Nimmo Projected: First Pitch In Play — 23.5% (fair odds +326)

  • Jose Quintana: Zone 60.1%, Ball 39.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 89.5 mph
  • Brandon Nimmo: Swing 11.8%, In Play 23.5%

OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): J.T. Ginn vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.1% (fair odds +610)

  • J.T. Ginn: Zone 65.2%, Ball 34.8%
  • Zach Neto: Swing 51.3%, In Play 14.1%

CWS @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Noah Schultz vs Rob Refsnyder Projected: First Pitch In Play — 27.2% (fair odds +267)

  • Noah Schultz: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%
  • Rob Refsnyder: Swing 30.4%, In Play 27.2%

LAD @ SD — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.3% (fair odds +445)

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 38.7%, In Play 18.3%

SF @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Zac Gallen vs Jung Hoo Lee Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.6% (fair odds +110)

  • Zac Gallen: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
  • Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 16.7%, In Play 5.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Robbie Ray vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.4% (fair odds +548)

  • Robbie Ray: Zone 58.5%, Ball 41.5%
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 34.3%, In Play 15.4%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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