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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 22, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-22-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-22T16:11:59.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 22, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 21 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 1/2 | Ball Picks: 0/2 | In Play Picks: 1/4 (2 fouled)\n>\n> ❌ Matt Vierling - In Play / ❌ Oneil Cruz - Ball / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ✅ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - In Play / ❌ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Willi Castro - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **DET @ BAL: Taylor Ward vs Jack Flaherty — 48.8% (fair odds +105)**\n>  Flaherty 48.8% ball rate, Ward 22.6% swing tendency\n\n> **SEA @ KC: Rob Refsnyder vs Noah Cameron — 53.1% (fair odds -113)**\n>  Cameron 53.1% ball rate, Refsnyder 29.2% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **LAD @ MIL: Jackson Chourio vs Justin Wrobleski — 19.5% (fair odds +413)**\n>  Chourio 19.5% in-play projection vs Wrobleski (92.9 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### HOU @ CHC — 2:20 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jameson Taillon vs Jeremy Peña**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.6%** (fair odds +585)\n\n  * Jameson Taillon: Zone 61.8%, Ball 38.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.8 mph\n  * Jeremy Peña: Swing 38.6%, In Play 14.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs Nico Hoerner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 59.8%** (fair odds -149)\n\n  * Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 69.8%, Ball 30.2%\n  * Nico Hoerner: Swing 6.5%, In Play 10.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CLE @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Cristopher Sánchez vs Angel Martínez**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.7%** (fair odds -136)\n\n  * Cristopher Sánchez: Zone 65.9%, Ball 34.1%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.6 mph\n  * Angel Martínez: Swing 20.0%, In Play 8.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### STL @ CIN — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Chris Paddack vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 62.9%** (fair odds -169)\n\n  * Chris Paddack: Zone 77.1%, Ball 22.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.4 mph\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 34.2%, In Play 14.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TB @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Nick Martinez vs Ben Rice**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.5%** (fair odds +344)\n\n  * Nick Martinez: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%\n  * Ben Rice: Swing 26.1%, In Play 22.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PIT @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Bubba Chandler vs George Springer**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 70.8%** (fair odds -243)\n\n  * Bubba Chandler: Zone 84.6%, Ball 15.4%\n  * George Springer: Swing 33.8%, In Play 13.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIN @ BOS — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Payton Tolle vs Austin Martin**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.7%** (fair odds +341)\n\n  * Payton Tolle: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.0 mph\n  * Austin Martin: Swing 28.6%, In Play 22.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYM @ MIA — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Eury Pérez vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 53.3%** (fair odds -114)\n\n  * Eury Pérez: Zone 46.7%, Ball 53.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.6 mph\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 25.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Tobias Myers vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 13.3%** (fair odds +651)\n\n  * Tobias Myers: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.2%, In Play 13.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### WSH @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Miles Mikolas vs Ronald Acuña Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.2%** (fair odds +482)\n\n  * Miles Mikolas: Zone 73.0%, Ball 27.0%\n  * Ronald Acuña Jr.: Swing 48.1%, In Play 17.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### DET @ BAL — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Chris Bassitt vs Colt Keith**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 62.8%** (fair odds -169)\n\n  * Chris Bassitt: Zone 71.8%, Ball 28.2%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.3 mph\n  * Colt Keith: Swing 11.9%, In Play 9.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jack Flaherty vs Taylor Ward**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 48.8%** (fair odds +105)\n\n  * Jack Flaherty: Zone 51.2%, Ball 48.8%\n  * Taylor Ward: Swing 22.6%, In Play 5.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAD @ MIL — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Logan Henderson vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 68.0%** (fair odds -212)\n\n  * Logan Henderson: Zone 77.8%, Ball 22.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.4 mph\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 22.1%, In Play 9.8%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Justin Wrobleski vs Jackson Chourio**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.5%** (fair odds +413)\n\n  * Justin Wrobleski: Zone 55.6%, Ball 44.4%\n  * Jackson Chourio: Swing 50.0%, In Play 19.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SEA @ KC — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Noah Cameron vs Rob Refsnyder**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 53.1%** (fair odds -113)\n\n  * Noah Cameron: Zone 46.9%, Ball 53.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph\n  * Rob Refsnyder: Swing 29.2%, In Play 10.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Maikel Garcia**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.3%** (fair odds -124)\n\n  * Logan Gilbert: Zone 44.7%, Ball 55.3%\n  * Maikel Garcia: Swing 29.3%, In Play 9.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TEX @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jacob deGrom vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.8%** (fair odds -137)\n\n  * Jacob deGrom: Zone 74.4%, Ball 25.6%\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 52.1%, In Play 16.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### COL @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Tomoyuki Sugano vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.2%** (fair odds +116)\n\n  * Tomoyuki Sugano: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 32.9%, In Play 17.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### OAK @ SD — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Walker Buehler vs Carlos Cortes**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 51.5%** (fair odds -106)\n\n  * Walker Buehler: Zone 48.5%, Ball 51.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph\n  * Carlos Cortes: Swing 40.0%, In Play 15.9%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jeffrey Springs vs Xander Bogaerts**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 52.5%** (fair odds -111)\n\n  * Jeffrey Springs: Zone 47.5%, Ball 52.5%\n  * Xander Bogaerts: Swing 50.0%, In Play 15.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 22, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-22T16:11:59.626Z"
}