First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, May 21, 2026

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May 20 Results: Strike Picks: 2/5 | Ball Picks: 4/6 | In Play Picks: 0/6 (2 fouled)

✅ Matt McLain - Strike / ✅ Trea Turner - Ball / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ✅ Byron Buxton - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - In Play / ❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ❌ George Springer - Ball / ❌ Ben Rice - In Play / ❌ Jarren Duran - Strike / ❌ Jackson Chourio - Strike / ❌ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball / ✅ Zach Neto - Ball

See full track record →

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Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 7-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

NYM @ WSH: Carson Benge vs Cade Cavalli — 75.0% (fair odds -300) Cavalli 75.0% zone, Benge swings 18.2% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

COL @ ARI: Willi Castro vs Eduardo Rodriguez — 50.0% (fair odds -100) Rodriguez 50.0% ball rate, Castro 50.0% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

CLE @ DET: Matt Vierling vs Joey Cantillo — 17.4% (fair odds +475) Vierling 17.4% in-play projection vs Cantillo (90.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

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📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

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Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

CLE @ DET — 1:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Joey Cantillo vs Matt Vierling Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.4% (fair odds +475)

• Joey Cantillo: Zone 69.6%, Ball 30.4%
• Matt Vierling: Swing 11.1%, In Play 17.4%

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PIT @ STL — 1:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Dustin May vs Oneil Cruz Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.9% (fair odds +113)

• Dustin May: Zone 53.1%, Ball 46.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.9 mph
• Oneil Cruz: Swing 47.7%, In Play 8.4%

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NYM @ WSH — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Cade Cavalli vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 75.0% (fair odds -300)

• Cade Cavalli: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.0 mph
• Carson Benge: Swing 18.2%, In Play 0.0%

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ATL @ MIA — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs Ronald Acuña Jr. Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.4% (fair odds +445)

• Sandy Alcantara: Zone 70.7%, Ball 29.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.4 mph
• Ronald Acuña Jr.: Swing 47.2%, In Play 18.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Strider vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.2% (fair odds +116)

• Spencer Strider: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%
• Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.4%, In Play 12.2%

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TOR @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Carlos Rodón vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch In Play — 29.6% (fair odds +238)

• Carlos Rodón: Zone 78.4%, Ball 21.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.6 mph
• George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 29.6%

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OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): José Soriano vs Carlos Cortes Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.3% (fair odds +116)

• José Soriano: Zone 53.7%, Ball 46.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 96.6 mph
• Carlos Cortes: Swing 50.0%, In Play 12.0%

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COL @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Willi Castro Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

• Eduardo Rodriguez: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph
• Willi Castro: Swing 50.0%, In Play 6.4%

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Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

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edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.