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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 21, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-21-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-21T15:57:52.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, May 21, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 20 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 2/5 | Ball Picks: 4/6 | In Play Picks: 0/6 (2 fouled)\n>\n> ✅ Matt McLain - Strike / ✅ Trea Turner - Ball / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ✅ Byron Buxton - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - In Play / ❌ Ronald Acuña Jr. - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ❌ George Springer - Ball / ❌ Ben Rice - In Play / ❌ Jarren Duran - Strike / ❌ Jackson Chourio - Strike / ❌ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball / ✅ Zach Neto - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 7-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Strike Picks\n\n> **NYM @ WSH: Carson Benge vs Cade Cavalli — 75.0% (fair odds -300)**\n>  Cavalli 75.0% zone, Benge swings 18.2% of the time\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **COL @ ARI: Willi Castro vs Eduardo Rodriguez — 50.0% (fair odds -100)**\n>  Rodriguez 50.0% ball rate, Castro 50.0% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **CLE @ DET: Matt Vierling vs Joey Cantillo — 17.4% (fair odds +475)**\n>  Vierling 17.4% in-play projection vs Cantillo (90.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### CLE @ DET — 1:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Joey Cantillo vs Matt Vierling**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.4%** (fair odds +475)\n\n  * Joey Cantillo: Zone 69.6%, Ball 30.4%\n  * Matt Vierling: Swing 11.1%, In Play 17.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PIT @ STL — 1:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Dustin May vs Oneil Cruz**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.9%** (fair odds +113)\n\n  * Dustin May: Zone 53.1%, Ball 46.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.9 mph\n  * Oneil Cruz: Swing 47.7%, In Play 8.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYM @ WSH — 4:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Cade Cavalli vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 75.0%** (fair odds -300)\n\n  * Cade Cavalli: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.0 mph\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 18.2%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ATL @ MIA — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs Ronald Acuña Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.4%** (fair odds +445)\n\n  * Sandy Alcantara: Zone 70.7%, Ball 29.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.4 mph\n  * Ronald Acuña Jr.: Swing 47.2%, In Play 18.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Strider vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.2%** (fair odds +116)\n\n  * Spencer Strider: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.4%, In Play 12.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TOR @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Carlos Rodón vs George Springer**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 29.6%** (fair odds +238)\n\n  * Carlos Rodón: Zone 78.4%, Ball 21.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.6 mph\n  * George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 29.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): José Soriano vs Carlos Cortes**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.3%** (fair odds +116)\n\n  * José Soriano: Zone 53.7%, Ball 46.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 96.6 mph\n  * Carlos Cortes: Swing 50.0%, In Play 12.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### COL @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Willi Castro**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Eduardo Rodriguez: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph\n  * Willi Castro: Swing 50.0%, In Play 6.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, May 21, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-21T15:57:53.393Z"
}