External Publication
Visit Post

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 20, 2026
Source

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 20, 2026

May 19 Results: Strike Picks: 0/1 | Ball Picks: 6/9 | In Play Picks: 0/8 (2 fouled)

❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ❌ Matt Vierling - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - In Play / ❌ Matt McLain - In Play / ✅ Trea Turner - Ball / ❌ George Springer - Strike / ✅ Trent Grisham - Ball / ✅ Jarren Duran - Ball / ❌ Maikel Garcia - In Play / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ❌ Jackson Chourio - Ball / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Ball / ✅ Zach Neto - Ball / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ✅ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Ball

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

MIL @ CHC: Nico Hoerner vs Kyle Harrison — 80.6% (fair odds -415) Harrison 92.9% zone, Hoerner swings 14.3% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

CIN @ PHI: Trea Turner vs Andrew Abbott — 53.0% (fair odds -113) Abbott 53.0% ball rate, Turner 15.8% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

HOU @ MIN: Jeremy Peña vs Joe Ryan — 19.4% (fair odds +415) Peña 19.4% in-play projection vs Ryan (93.1 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

CIN @ PHI — 1:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Nola vs Matt McLain Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.8% (fair odds -137)

  • Aaron Nola: Zone 63.0%, Ball 37.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph
  • Matt McLain: Swing 42.9%, In Play 5.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Abbott vs Trea Turner Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.0% (fair odds -113)

  • Andrew Abbott: Zone 47.0%, Ball 53.0%
  • Trea Turner: Swing 15.8%, In Play 7.1%

HOU @ MIN — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Joe Ryan vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.4% (fair odds +415)

  • Joe Ryan: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.1 mph
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.0%, In Play 19.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Mike Burrows vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.6% (fair odds -116)

  • Mike Burrows: Zone 46.4%, Ball 53.6%
  • Byron Buxton: Swing 53.9%, In Play 14.7%

SF @ ARI — 3:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Mahle vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.6% (fair odds +343)

  • Tyler Mahle: Zone 64.0%, Ball 36.0%
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 33.8%, In Play 22.6%

CWS @ SEA — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Emerson Hancock vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.2% (fair odds +451)

  • Emerson Hancock: Zone 72.0%, Ball 28.0%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.5 mph
  • Sam Antonacci: Swing 25.0%, In Play 18.2%

ATL @ MIA — 6:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Chris Sale vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.4% (fair odds +508)

  • Chris Sale: Zone 65.5%, Ball 34.5%
  • Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.6%, In Play 16.4%

NYM @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Zack Littell vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.1% (fair odds -179)

  • Zack Littell: Zone 64.1%, Ball 35.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.1 mph
  • Carson Benge: Swing 10.0%, In Play 0.0%

TOR @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Cam Schlittler vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Cam Schlittler: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.2 mph
  • George Springer: Swing 34.4%, In Play 6.5%

BOS @ KC — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Michael Wacha vs Jarren Duran Projected: First Pitch In Play — 15.1% (fair odds +561)

  • Michael Wacha: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph
  • Jarren Duran: Swing 27.0%, In Play 15.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Connelly Early vs Maikel Garcia Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.7% (fair odds +628)

  • Connelly Early: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%
  • Maikel Garcia: Swing 30.8%, In Play 13.7%

MIL @ CHC — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Edward Cabrera vs Jackson Chourio Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.7% (fair odds -136)

  • Edward Cabrera: Zone 74.3%, Ball 25.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph
  • Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.8%, In Play 16.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Harrison vs Nico Hoerner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 80.6% (fair odds -415)

  • Kyle Harrison: Zone 92.9%, Ball 7.1%
  • Nico Hoerner: Swing 14.3%, In Play 12.3%

PIT @ STL — 7:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Michael McGreevy vs Oneil Cruz Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.7% (fair odds -184)

  • Michael McGreevy: Zone 80.0%, Ball 20.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.3 mph
  • Oneil Cruz: Swing 47.7%, In Play 15.3%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Carmen Mlodzinski vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.4% (fair odds +111)

  • Carmen Mlodzinski: Zone 52.6%, Ball 47.4%
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 33.3%, In Play 8.6%

LAD @ SD — 8:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Randy Vásquez vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.7% (fair odds -148)

  • Randy Vásquez: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.6%, In Play 8.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Shohei Ohtani vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.0% (fair odds +108)

  • Shohei Ohtani: Zone 52.0%, Ball 48.0%
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 39.3%, In Play 14.9%

OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Aaron Civale vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.9% (fair odds -108)

  • Aaron Civale: Zone 48.1%, Ball 51.9%
  • Zach Neto: Swing 51.7%, In Play 10.8%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

Discussion in the ATmosphere

Loading comments...