External Publication
Visit Post

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 16, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 16, 2026
Source

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 16, 2026

May 15 Results: Strike Picks: 1/3 | Ball Picks: 1/3 | In Play Picks: 2/9

❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Steven Kwan - Ball / ✅ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - In Play / ✅ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Ball / ❌ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ Joc Pederson - Strike / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - In Play / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - In Play / ❌ Jackson Merrill - In Play / ❌ Brendan Donovan - In Play / ❌ Jung Hoo Lee - Ball / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play

See full track record →

Winning Slips 💰

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

CIN @ CLE: Steven Kwan vs Chris Paddack — 74.8% (fair odds -297) Paddack 76.5% zone, Kwan swings 3.4% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

SD @ SEA: Jackson Merrill vs Logan Gilbert — 56.8% (fair odds -131) Gilbert 56.8% ball rate, Merrill 80.0% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

MIA @ TB: Xavier Edwards vs Nick Martinez — 17.4% (fair odds +476) Edwards 17.4% in-play projection vs Martinez (92.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

TOR @ DET — 1:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Casey Mize vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Strike — 60.1% (fair odds -151)

  • Casey Mize: Zone 69.4%, Ball 30.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph
  • George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 9.3%

KC @ STL — 2:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Noah Cameron vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: First Pitch Ball — 54.8% (fair odds -121)

  • Noah Cameron: Zone 45.2%, Ball 54.8%
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 32.6%, In Play 7.8%

ARI @ COL — 3:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Tomoyuki Sugano vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.2% (fair odds +449)

  • Tomoyuki Sugano: Zone 55.3%, Ball 44.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.0 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 34.8%, In Play 18.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jordan Beck Projected: First Pitch Ball — 51.4% (fair odds -106)

  • Eduardo Rodriguez: Zone 48.6%, Ball 51.4%
  • Jordan Beck: Swing 31.2%, In Play 9.2%

PHI @ PIT — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Bubba Chandler vs Trea Turner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 73.5% (fair odds -277)

  • Bubba Chandler: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 98.5 mph
  • Trea Turner: Swing 24.7%, In Play 9.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Cristopher Sánchez vs Oneil Cruz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.2% (fair odds +604)

  • Cristopher Sánchez: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%
  • Oneil Cruz: Swing 50.0%, In Play 14.2%

BAL @ WSH — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Cade Cavalli vs Gunnar Henderson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.2% (fair odds -145)

  • Cade Cavalli: Zone 73.7%, Ball 26.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.0 mph
  • Gunnar Henderson: Swing 36.4%, In Play 14.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Chris Bassitt vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch Strike — 61.9% (fair odds -162)

  • Chris Bassitt: Zone 71.1%, Ball 28.9%
  • James Wood: Swing 36.2%, In Play 9.2%

MIA @ TB — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Nick Martinez vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.4% (fair odds +476)

  • Nick Martinez: Zone 70.6%, Ball 29.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.3 mph
  • Xavier Edwards: Swing 30.2%, In Play 17.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs Chandler Simpson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.6% (fair odds -141)

  • Sandy Alcantara: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%
  • Chandler Simpson: Swing 18.9%, In Play 13.9%

CIN @ CLE — 6:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Joey Cantillo vs Dane Myers Projected: First Pitch In Play — 23.0% (fair odds +335)

  • Joey Cantillo: Zone 68.2%, Ball 31.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.2 mph
  • Dane Myers: Swing 33.3%, In Play 23.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Chris Paddack vs Steven Kwan Projected: First Pitch Strike — 74.8% (fair odds -297)

  • Chris Paddack: Zone 76.5%, Ball 23.5%
  • Steven Kwan: Swing 3.4%, In Play 1.7%

MIL @ MIN — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Logan Henderson vs Austin Martin Projected: First Pitch In Play — 18.9% (fair odds +429)

  • Logan Henderson: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%
  • Austin Martin: Swing 27.8%, In Play 18.9%

TEX @ HOU — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kai-Wei Teng vs Joc Pederson Projected: First Pitch Strike — 66.7% (fair odds -200)

  • Kai-Wei Teng: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.4 mph
  • Joc Pederson: Swing 20.0%, In Play 0.0%

BOS @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Bryce Elder vs Jarren Duran Projected: First Pitch Ball — 48.6% (fair odds +106)

  • Bryce Elder: Zone 51.4%, Ball 48.6%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.4 mph
  • Jarren Duran: Swing 26.9%, In Play 8.8%

NYY @ NYM — 7:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Carlos Rodón vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 77.8% (fair odds -350)

  • Carlos Rodón: Zone 77.8%, Ball 22.2%
  • Carson Benge: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%

SD @ SEA — 7:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Jackson Merrill Projected: First Pitch Ball — 56.8% (fair odds -131)

  • Logan Gilbert: Zone 43.2%, Ball 56.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.0 mph
  • Jackson Merrill: Swing 80.0%, In Play 5.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Walker Buehler vs Brendan Donovan Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.1% (fair odds -113)

  • Walker Buehler: Zone 46.9%, Ball 53.1%
  • Brendan Donovan: Swing 33.9%, In Play 10.6%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

Discussion in the ATmosphere

Loading comments...