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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 20, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/first-pitch-outcome-picks-wednesday-may-20-2026-mlb-edge/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-20T13:57:20.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 20, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 19 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 0/1 | Ball Picks: 6/9 | In Play Picks: 0/8 (2 fouled)\n>\n> ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ❌ Matt Vierling - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - In Play / ❌ Matt McLain - In Play / ✅ Trea Turner - Ball / ❌ George Springer - Strike / ✅ Trent Grisham - Ball / ✅ Jarren Duran - Ball / ❌ Maikel Garcia - In Play / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ❌ Jackson Chourio - Ball / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Ball / ✅ Zach Neto - Ball / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ✅ Fernando Tatis Jr. - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Strike Picks\n\n> **MIL @ CHC: Nico Hoerner vs Kyle Harrison — 80.6% (fair odds -415)**\n>  Harrison 92.9% zone, Hoerner swings 14.3% of the time\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **CIN @ PHI: Trea Turner vs Andrew Abbott — 53.0% (fair odds -113)**\n>  Abbott 53.0% ball rate, Turner 15.8% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **HOU @ MIN: Jeremy Peña vs Joe Ryan — 19.4% (fair odds +415)**\n>  Peña 19.4% in-play projection vs Ryan (93.1 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### CIN @ PHI — 1:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Nola vs Matt McLain**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.8%** (fair odds -137)\n\n  * Aaron Nola: Zone 63.0%, Ball 37.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph\n  * Matt McLain: Swing 42.9%, In Play 5.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Abbott vs Trea Turner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 53.0%** (fair odds -113)\n\n  * Andrew Abbott: Zone 47.0%, Ball 53.0%\n  * Trea Turner: Swing 15.8%, In Play 7.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### HOU @ MIN — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Joe Ryan vs Jeremy Peña**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.4%** (fair odds +415)\n\n  * Joe Ryan: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.1 mph\n  * Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.0%, In Play 19.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Mike Burrows vs Byron Buxton**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 53.6%** (fair odds -116)\n\n  * Mike Burrows: Zone 46.4%, Ball 53.6%\n  * Byron Buxton: Swing 53.9%, In Play 14.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ ARI — 3:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Mahle vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.6%** (fair odds +343)\n\n  * Tyler Mahle: Zone 64.0%, Ball 36.0%\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 33.8%, In Play 22.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CWS @ SEA — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Emerson Hancock vs Sam Antonacci**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.2%** (fair odds +451)\n\n  * Emerson Hancock: Zone 72.0%, Ball 28.0%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.5 mph\n  * Sam Antonacci: Swing 25.0%, In Play 18.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ATL @ MIA — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Chris Sale vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.4%** (fair odds +508)\n\n  * Chris Sale: Zone 65.5%, Ball 34.5%\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.6%, In Play 16.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYM @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Zack Littell vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 64.1%** (fair odds -179)\n\n  * Zack Littell: Zone 64.1%, Ball 35.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.1 mph\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 10.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TOR @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Cam Schlittler vs George Springer**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Cam Schlittler: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.2 mph\n  * George Springer: Swing 34.4%, In Play 6.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BOS @ KC — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Michael Wacha vs Jarren Duran**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.1%** (fair odds +561)\n\n  * Michael Wacha: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph\n  * Jarren Duran: Swing 27.0%, In Play 15.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Connelly Early vs Maikel Garcia**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 13.7%** (fair odds +628)\n\n  * Connelly Early: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%\n  * Maikel Garcia: Swing 30.8%, In Play 13.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIL @ CHC — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Edward Cabrera vs Jackson Chourio**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.7%** (fair odds -136)\n\n  * Edward Cabrera: Zone 74.3%, Ball 25.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph\n  * Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.8%, In Play 16.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Harrison vs Nico Hoerner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 80.6%** (fair odds -415)\n\n  * Kyle Harrison: Zone 92.9%, Ball 7.1%\n  * Nico Hoerner: Swing 14.3%, In Play 12.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PIT @ STL — 7:45 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Michael McGreevy vs Oneil Cruz**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 64.7%** (fair odds -184)\n\n  * Michael McGreevy: Zone 80.0%, Ball 20.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.3 mph\n  * Oneil Cruz: Swing 47.7%, In Play 15.3%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Carmen Mlodzinski vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 47.4%** (fair odds +111)\n\n  * Carmen Mlodzinski: Zone 52.6%, Ball 47.4%\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 33.3%, In Play 8.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAD @ SD — 8:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Randy Vásquez vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 59.7%** (fair odds -148)\n\n  * Randy Vásquez: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.6%, In Play 8.9%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Shohei Ohtani vs Fernando Tatis Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 48.0%** (fair odds +108)\n\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Zone 52.0%, Ball 48.0%\n  * Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 39.3%, In Play 14.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Aaron Civale vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 51.9%** (fair odds -108)\n\n  * Aaron Civale: Zone 48.1%, Ball 51.9%\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 51.7%, In Play 10.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-20T13:57:21.260Z"
}