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"description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 19, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
"path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-19-2026/",
"publishedAt": "2026-05-19T18:28:42.000Z",
"site": "https://edgely.bet",
"tags": [
"See full track record →",
"Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
"→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
],
"textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Tuesday, May 19, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 18 Results:**\n>\n> Strike Picks: 2/4 | Ball Picks: 2/5 | In Play Picks: 0/7 (2 fouled)\n>\n> ✅ Angel Martínez - Strike / ❌ Taylor Ward - Ball / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ Matt McLain - In Play / ❌ Trea Turner - Ball / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike / ❌ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Jarren Duran - Strike / ❌ Maikel Garcia - In Play / ❌ Jackson Chourio - Ball / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Ball / ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ Fernando Tatis Jr. - In Play / ✅ Jung Hoo Lee - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **BOS @ KC: Jarren Duran vs Bailey Falter — 62.5% (fair odds -167)**\n> Falter 62.5% ball rate, Duran 26.3% swing tendency\n\n> **HOU @ MIN: Austin Martin vs Lance McCullers Jr. — 61.9% (fair odds -162)**\n> Jr. 61.9% ball rate, Martin 28.6% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **BOS @ KC: Maikel Garcia vs Ranger Suarez — 18.8% (fair odds +433)**\n> Garcia 18.8% in-play projection vs Suarez (90.6 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### ATL @ MIA — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Martín Pérez vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.9%** (fair odds -137)\n\n * Martín Pérez: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%\n * Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.6%, In Play 15.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CIN @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Dane Myers**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 23.0%** (fair odds +336)\n\n * Jesús Luzardo: Zone 64.3%, Ball 35.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.3 mph\n * Dane Myers: Swing 42.9%, In Play 23.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Chase Burns vs Trea Turner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 47.1%** (fair odds +112)\n\n * Chase Burns: Zone 52.9%, Ball 47.1%\n * Trea Turner: Swing 25.3%, In Play 5.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CLE @ DET — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Parker Messick vs Kevin McGonigle**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 20.5%** (fair odds +388)\n\n * Parker Messick: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%\n * Kevin McGonigle: Swing 33.3%, In Play 20.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BAL @ TB — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Griffin Jax vs Gunnar Henderson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 69.6%** (fair odds -229)\n\n * Griffin Jax: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.1 mph\n * Gunnar Henderson: Swing 38.2%, In Play 13.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TOR @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Dylan Cease vs Trent Grisham**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 54.8%** (fair odds -121)\n\n * Dylan Cease: Zone 45.2%, Ball 54.8%\n * Trent Grisham: Swing 15.6%, In Play 2.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIL @ CHC — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Ben Brown vs Jackson Chourio**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 64.7%** (fair odds -183)\n\n * Ben Brown: Zone 35.3%, Ball 64.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.3 mph\n * Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.8%, In Play 9.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs Nico Hoerner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.8%** (fair odds -126)\n\n * Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 44.2%, Ball 55.8%\n * Nico Hoerner: Swing 6.7%, In Play 6.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### HOU @ MIN — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Lance McCullers Jr. vs Austin Martin**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 61.9%** (fair odds -162)\n\n * Lance McCullers Jr.: Zone 38.1%, Ball 61.9%\n * Austin Martin: Swing 28.6%, In Play 2.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BOS @ KC — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Bailey Falter vs Jarren Duran**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 62.5%** (fair odds -167)\n\n * Bailey Falter: Zone 37.5%, Ball 62.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph\n * Jarren Duran: Swing 26.3%, In Play 5.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Ranger Suarez vs Maikel Garcia**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.8%** (fair odds +433)\n\n * Ranger Suarez: Zone 61.8%, Ball 38.2%\n * Maikel Garcia: Swing 30.8%, In Play 18.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PIT @ STL — 7:45 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Oneil Cruz**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 63.0%** (fair odds -170)\n\n * Matthew Liberatore: Zone 76.3%, Ball 23.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph\n * Oneil Cruz: Swing 50.0%, In Play 13.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Reid Detmers vs Shea Langeliers**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.6%** (fair odds -125)\n\n * Reid Detmers: Zone 44.4%, Ball 55.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.9 mph\n * Shea Langeliers: Swing 38.9%, In Play 5.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jacob Lopez vs Vaughn Grissom**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 56.0%** (fair odds -127)\n\n * Jacob Lopez: Zone 44.0%, Ball 56.0%\n * Vaughn Grissom: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAD @ SD — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Griffin Canning vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 52.6%** (fair odds -111)\n\n * Griffin Canning: Zone 47.4%, Ball 52.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.2 mph\n * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.6%, In Play 6.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Emmet Sheehan vs Fernando Tatis Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.0%** (fair odds -122)\n\n * Emmet Sheehan: Zone 45.0%, Ball 55.0%\n * Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 39.3%, In Play 12.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CWS @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Bryce Miller vs Sam Antonacci**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n * Bryce Miller: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.6 mph\n * Sam Antonacci: Swing 25.0%, In Play 7.8%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Anthony Kay vs J.P. Crawford**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.8%** (fair odds +431)\n\n * Anthony Kay: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%\n * J.P. Crawford: Swing 38.1%, In Play 18.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
"title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Tuesday, May 19, 2026 | MLB Edge",
"updatedAt": "2026-05-19T18:28:43.765Z"
}