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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 18, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-18-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-18T21:22:06.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 18, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 17 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 1/4 | Ball Picks: 2/5 | In Play Picks: 1/7\n>\n\n> ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - Ball / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ✅ Oneil Cruz - Strike / ❌ Jarren Duran - Ball / ❌ Drake Baldwin - Strike / ✅ Yohendrick Piñango - Ball / ✅ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - In Play / ❌ Edouard Julien - In Play / ✅ Harrison Bader - Ball / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 14-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **BAL @ TB: Yandy Díaz vs Trevor Rogers — 15.2% (fair odds +557)**\n>  Díaz 15.2% in-play projection vs Rogers (92.7 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **BOS @ KC: Maikel Garcia vs Sonny Gray — 17.9% (fair odds +457)**\n>  Garcia 17.9% in-play projection vs Gray (91.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **CWS @ SEA: Rob Refsnyder vs Noah Schultz — 27.2% (fair odds +267)**\n>  Refsnyder 27.2% in-play projection vs Schultz (95.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### BAL @ TB — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Shane McClanahan vs Taylor Ward**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 62.5%** (fair odds -167)\n\n  * Shane McClanahan: Zone 37.5%, Ball 62.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.5 mph\n  * Taylor Ward: Swing 33.3%, In Play 1.8%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Trevor Rogers vs Yandy Díaz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.2%** (fair odds +557)\n\n  * Trevor Rogers: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%\n  * Yandy Díaz: Swing 21.6%, In Play 15.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CLE @ DET — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Framber Valdez vs Angel Martínez**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 62.2%** (fair odds -164)\n\n  * Framber Valdez: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%, 1st pitch Sinker 93.2 mph\n  * Angel Martínez: Swing 22.2%, In Play 10.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CIN @ PHI — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Andrew Painter vs Matt McLain**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 13.2%** (fair odds +658)\n\n  * Andrew Painter: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.3 mph\n  * Matt McLain: Swing 50.0%, In Play 13.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYM @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jake Irvin vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 61.9%** (fair odds -162)\n\n  * Jake Irvin: Zone 61.9%, Ball 38.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.2 mph\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 11.1%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TOR @ NYY — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Ryan Weathers vs George Springer**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 25.0%** (fair odds +301)\n\n  * Ryan Weathers: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.0 mph\n  * George Springer: Swing 35.3%, In Play 25.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BOS @ KC — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Seth Lugo vs Jarren Duran**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 67.4%** (fair odds -207)\n\n  * Seth Lugo: Zone 82.9%, Ball 17.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 89.3 mph\n  * Jarren Duran: Swing 27.3%, In Play 15.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Sonny Gray vs Maikel Garcia**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.9%** (fair odds +457)\n\n  * Sonny Gray: Zone 76.9%, Ball 23.1%\n  * Maikel Garcia: Swing 30.0%, In Play 17.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIL @ CHC — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Shota Imanaga vs Jackson Chourio**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 51.4%** (fair odds -106)\n\n  * Shota Imanaga: Zone 48.6%, Ball 51.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph\n  * Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.1%, In Play 12.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Sproat vs Nico Hoerner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 49.3%** (fair odds +103)\n\n  * Brandon Sproat: Zone 50.7%, Ball 49.3%\n  * Nico Hoerner: Swing 6.9%, In Play 7.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TEX @ COL — 8:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jose Quintana vs Brandon Nimmo**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 23.5%** (fair odds +326)\n\n  * Jose Quintana: Zone 60.1%, Ball 39.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 89.5 mph\n  * Brandon Nimmo: Swing 11.8%, In Play 23.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): J.T. Ginn vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.1%** (fair odds +610)\n\n  * J.T. Ginn: Zone 65.2%, Ball 34.8%\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 51.3%, In Play 14.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CWS @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Noah Schultz vs Rob Refsnyder**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 27.2%** (fair odds +267)\n\n  * Noah Schultz: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%\n  * Rob Refsnyder: Swing 30.4%, In Play 27.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAD @ SD — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Fernando Tatis Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.3%** (fair odds +445)\n\n  * Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%\n  * Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 38.7%, In Play 18.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ ARI — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Zac Gallen vs Jung Hoo Lee**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 47.6%** (fair odds +110)\n\n  * Zac Gallen: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph\n  * Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 16.7%, In Play 5.9%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Robbie Ray vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.4%** (fair odds +548)\n\n  * Robbie Ray: Zone 58.5%, Ball 41.5%\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 34.3%, In Play 15.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 18, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-18T21:22:07.526Z"
}