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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 17, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-17-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-17T14:49:46.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 17, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 16 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 5/7 | Ball Picks: 1/7 | In Play Picks: 1/7\n>\n> ✅ George Springer - Strike / ❌ Maikel Garcia - Ball / ❌ Masyn Winn - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Willi Castro - Ball / ✅ Gunnar Henderson - Strike / ❌ James Wood - Strike / ❌ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ Oneil Cruz - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - In Play / ✅ Dane Myers - In Play / ✅ Joc Pederson - Strike / ❌ Jose Altuve - In Play / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ❌ Austin Martin - In Play / ❌ Jackson Merrill - Ball / ❌ J.P. Crawford - Ball / ❌ Jarren Duran - Ball / ✅ Ben Rice - Ball / ✅ Carson Benge - Strike\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n## Winning Slips 💰\n\nWhat was FanDuel thinking 🤯 ✅ Dane Myers - In Play at +2000 straight odds!!\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **TEX @ HOU: Jose Altuve vs Nathan Eovaldi — 30.6% (fair odds +227)**\n>  Altuve 30.6% in-play projection vs Eovaldi (94.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **ARI @ COL: Ketel Marte vs Michael Lorenzen — 19.0% (fair odds +425)**\n>  Marte 19.0% in-play projection vs Lorenzen (93.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **BAL @ WSH: James Wood vs Brandon Young — 15.8% (fair odds +533)**\n>  Wood 15.8% in-play projection vs Young (93.6 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### MIA @ TB — 12:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.5%** (fair odds +588)\n\n  * Drew Rasmussen: Zone 71.8%, Ball 28.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 30.2%, In Play 14.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Eury Pérez vs Chandler Simpson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.2%** (fair odds -123)\n\n  * Eury Pérez: Zone 44.8%, Ball 55.2%\n  * Chandler Simpson: Swing 18.9%, In Play 8.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PHI @ PIT — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Zack Wheeler vs Oneil Cruz**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 61.0%** (fair odds -156)\n\n  * Zack Wheeler: Zone 67.9%, Ball 32.1%\n  * Oneil Cruz: Swing 47.1%, In Play 6.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BOS @ ATL — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Grant Holmes vs Jarren Duran**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.2%** (fair odds -123)\n\n  * Grant Holmes: Zone 44.8%, Ball 55.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph\n  * Jarren Duran: Swing 26.9%, In Play 7.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Brayan Bello vs Drake Baldwin**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 63.6%** (fair odds -175)\n\n  * Brayan Bello: Zone 77.1%, Ball 22.9%\n  * Drake Baldwin: Swing 33.3%, In Play 13.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BAL @ WSH — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Miles Mikolas vs Gunnar Henderson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 59.6%** (fair odds -148)\n\n  * Miles Mikolas: Zone 73.0%, Ball 27.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.4 mph\n  * Gunnar Henderson: Swing 36.4%, In Play 13.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Brandon Young vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.8%** (fair odds +533)\n\n  * Brandon Young: Zone 64.7%, Ball 35.3%\n  * James Wood: Swing 36.2%, In Play 15.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ NYM — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Freddy Peralta vs Ben Rice**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.2%** (fair odds +559)\n\n  * Freddy Peralta: Zone 55.6%, Ball 44.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph\n  * Ben Rice: Swing 23.8%, In Play 15.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TOR @ DET — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jack Flaherty vs George Springer**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 47.6%** (fair odds +110)\n\n  * Jack Flaherty: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.6 mph\n  * George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 5.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Kevin Gausman vs Kevin McGonigle**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.2%** (fair odds +448)\n\n  * Kevin Gausman: Zone 65.2%, Ball 34.8%\n  * Kevin McGonigle: Swing 28.6%, In Play 18.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CHC @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Colin Rea vs Sam Antonacci**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 59.8%** (fair odds -148)\n\n  * Colin Rea: Zone 69.7%, Ball 30.3%\n  * Sam Antonacci: Swing 22.2%, In Play 9.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TEX @ HOU — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Nathan Eovaldi vs Jose Altuve**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 30.6%** (fair odds +227)\n\n  * Nathan Eovaldi: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%\n  * Jose Altuve: Swing 47.6%, In Play 30.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### KC @ STL — 2:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Andre Pallante vs Maikel Garcia**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.2%** (fair odds +116)\n\n  * Andre Pallante: Zone 53.8%, Ball 46.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph\n  * Maikel Garcia: Swing 28.9%, In Play 9.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Stephen Kolek vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 58.0%** (fair odds -138)\n\n  * Stephen Kolek: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 34.3%, In Play 13.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ARI @ COL — 3:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Michael Lorenzen vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.0%** (fair odds +425)\n\n  * Michael Lorenzen: Zone 68.6%, Ball 31.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.0 mph\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 34.8%, In Play 19.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Soroka vs Edouard Julien**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.2%** (fair odds +605)\n\n  * Michael Soroka: Zone 64.0%, Ball 36.0%\n  * Edouard Julien: Swing 37.5%, In Play 14.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ OAK — 4:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jeffrey Springs vs Heliot Ramos**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 51.3%** (fair odds -105)\n\n  * Jeffrey Springs: Zone 48.7%, Ball 51.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.0 mph\n  * Heliot Ramos: Swing 35.6%, In Play 12.3%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Adrian Houser vs Nick Kurtz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.0%** (fair odds +568)\n\n  * Adrian Houser: Zone 65.5%, Ball 34.5%\n  * Nick Kurtz: Swing 40.0%, In Play 15.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAD @ LAA — 4:07 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Roki Sasaki vs Vaughn Grissom**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.7%** (fair odds +114)\n\n  * Roki Sasaki: Zone 53.3%, Ball 46.7%\n  * Vaughn Grissom: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SD @ SEA — 7:20 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Lucas Giolito vs J.P. Crawford**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 58.0%** (fair odds -138)\n\n  * Lucas Giolito: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%\n  * J.P. Crawford: Swing 36.6%, In Play 11.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 17, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-17T14:49:47.328Z"
}