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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 16, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-16-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-16T16:20:41.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 16, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 15 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 1/3 | Ball Picks: 1/3 | In Play Picks: 2/9\n>\n> ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Steven Kwan - Ball / ✅ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - In Play / ✅ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Ball / ❌ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ Joc Pederson - Strike / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - In Play / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Shohei Ohtani - In Play / ❌ Jackson Merrill - In Play / ❌ Brendan Donovan - In Play / ❌ Jung Hoo Lee - Ball / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n## Winning Slips 💰\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Strike Picks\n\n> **CIN @ CLE: Steven Kwan vs Chris Paddack — 74.8% (fair odds -297)**\n>  Paddack 76.5% zone, Kwan swings 3.4% of the time\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **SD @ SEA: Jackson Merrill vs Logan Gilbert — 56.8% (fair odds -131)**\n>  Gilbert 56.8% ball rate, Merrill 80.0% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **MIA @ TB: Xavier Edwards vs Nick Martinez — 17.4% (fair odds +476)**\n>  Edwards 17.4% in-play projection vs Martinez (92.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### TOR @ DET — 1:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Casey Mize vs George Springer**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 60.1%** (fair odds -151)\n\n  * Casey Mize: Zone 69.4%, Ball 30.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph\n  * George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 9.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### KC @ STL — 2:15 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Noah Cameron vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 54.8%** (fair odds -121)\n\n  * Noah Cameron: Zone 45.2%, Ball 54.8%\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 32.6%, In Play 7.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ARI @ COL — 3:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Tomoyuki Sugano vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.2%** (fair odds +449)\n\n  * Tomoyuki Sugano: Zone 55.3%, Ball 44.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.0 mph\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 34.8%, In Play 18.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jordan Beck**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 51.4%** (fair odds -106)\n\n  * Eduardo Rodriguez: Zone 48.6%, Ball 51.4%\n  * Jordan Beck: Swing 31.2%, In Play 9.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PHI @ PIT — 4:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Bubba Chandler vs Trea Turner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 73.5%** (fair odds -277)\n\n  * Bubba Chandler: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 98.5 mph\n  * Trea Turner: Swing 24.7%, In Play 9.9%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Cristopher Sánchez vs Oneil Cruz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.2%** (fair odds +604)\n\n  * Cristopher Sánchez: Zone 67.4%, Ball 32.6%\n  * Oneil Cruz: Swing 50.0%, In Play 14.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BAL @ WSH — 4:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Cade Cavalli vs Gunnar Henderson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 59.2%** (fair odds -145)\n\n  * Cade Cavalli: Zone 73.7%, Ball 26.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.0 mph\n  * Gunnar Henderson: Swing 36.4%, In Play 14.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Chris Bassitt vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 61.9%** (fair odds -162)\n\n  * Chris Bassitt: Zone 71.1%, Ball 28.9%\n  * James Wood: Swing 36.2%, In Play 9.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIA @ TB — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Nick Martinez vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.4%** (fair odds +476)\n\n  * Nick Martinez: Zone 70.6%, Ball 29.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.3 mph\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 30.2%, In Play 17.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs Chandler Simpson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 58.6%** (fair odds -141)\n\n  * Sandy Alcantara: Zone 72.5%, Ball 27.5%\n  * Chandler Simpson: Swing 18.9%, In Play 13.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CIN @ CLE — 6:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Joey Cantillo vs Dane Myers**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 23.0%** (fair odds +335)\n\n  * Joey Cantillo: Zone 68.2%, Ball 31.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.2 mph\n  * Dane Myers: Swing 33.3%, In Play 23.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Chris Paddack vs Steven Kwan**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 74.8%** (fair odds -297)\n\n  * Chris Paddack: Zone 76.5%, Ball 23.5%\n  * Steven Kwan: Swing 3.4%, In Play 1.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIL @ MIN — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Logan Henderson vs Austin Martin**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.9%** (fair odds +429)\n\n  * Logan Henderson: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%\n  * Austin Martin: Swing 27.8%, In Play 18.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TEX @ HOU — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kai-Wei Teng vs Joc Pederson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 66.7%** (fair odds -200)\n\n  * Kai-Wei Teng: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.4 mph\n  * Joc Pederson: Swing 20.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### BOS @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Bryce Elder vs Jarren Duran**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 48.6%** (fair odds +106)\n\n  * Bryce Elder: Zone 51.4%, Ball 48.6%, 1st pitch Sinker 91.4 mph\n  * Jarren Duran: Swing 26.9%, In Play 8.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ NYM — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Carlos Rodón vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 77.8%** (fair odds -350)\n\n  * Carlos Rodón: Zone 77.8%, Ball 22.2%\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SD @ SEA — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Jackson Merrill**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 56.8%** (fair odds -131)\n\n  * Logan Gilbert: Zone 43.2%, Ball 56.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.0 mph\n  * Jackson Merrill: Swing 80.0%, In Play 5.7%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Walker Buehler vs Brendan Donovan**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 53.1%** (fair odds -113)\n\n  * Walker Buehler: Zone 46.9%, Ball 53.1%\n  * Brendan Donovan: Swing 33.9%, In Play 10.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 16, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-16T16:20:42.454Z"
}