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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 14, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-14-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-14T15:59:19.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, May 14, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 13 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 1/2 | Ball Picks: 2/6 | In Play Picks: 2/7\n>\n> +2200 Byron Buxton First Pitch Homerun\n> +850 Shea Langeliers First Pitch Lineout\n>\n> ❌ Trent Grisham - Strike / ❌ Taylor Ward - In Play / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Kyle Schwarber - In Play / ❌ Chandler Simpson - Ball / ✅ Mauricio Dubón - Ball / ✅ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ✅ Byron Buxton - In Play / ❌ Jackson Merrill - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ✅ J.P. Crawford - Ball / ❌ Jose Altuve - Ball / ✅ Shea Langeliers - In Play / ❌ Jung Hoo Lee - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n## Winning In Play ( ) Slips💰\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 11-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **CHC @ ATL: Drake Baldwin vs Ben Brown — 68.8% (fair odds -221)**\n>  Brown 68.8% ball rate, Baldwin 40.0% swing tendency\n\n> **STL @ OAK: JJ Wetherholt vs Jacob Lopez — 54.2% (fair odds -118)**\n>  Lopez 54.2% ball rate, Wetherholt 34.1% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **STL @ OAK: Nick Kurtz vs Michael McGreevy — 22.6% (fair odds +342)**\n>  Kurtz 22.6% in-play projection vs McGreevy (92.3 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### WSH @ CIN — 12:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Chase Burns vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Chase Burns: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 98.1 mph\n  * James Wood: Swing 33.9%, In Play 9.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SD @ MIL — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Harrison vs Jackson Merrill**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 76.1%** (fair odds -319)\n\n  * Kyle Harrison: Zone 92.3%, Ball 7.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.1 mph\n  * Jackson Merrill: Swing 77.8%, In Play 16.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Griffin Canning vs Jackson Chourio**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Griffin Canning: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%\n  * Jackson Chourio: Swing 44.4%, In Play 10.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIA @ MIN — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Zebby Matthews vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 58.9%** (fair odds -143)\n\n  * Zebby Matthews: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.0 mph\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 29.9%, In Play 16.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SEA @ HOU — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Mike Burrows vs Brendan Donovan**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 51.9%** (fair odds -108)\n\n  * Mike Burrows: Zone 48.1%, Ball 51.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph\n  * Brendan Donovan: Swing 35.2%, In Play 12.3%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Luis Castillo vs Jose Altuve**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.6%** (fair odds +410)\n\n  * Luis Castillo: Zone 59.5%, Ball 40.5%\n  * Jose Altuve: Swing 47.6%, In Play 19.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### STL @ OAK — 3:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Lopez vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 54.2%** (fair odds -118)\n\n  * Jacob Lopez: Zone 45.8%, Ball 54.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 34.1%, In Play 8.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael McGreevy vs Nick Kurtz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.6%** (fair odds +342)\n\n  * Michael McGreevy: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%\n  * Nick Kurtz: Swing 42.1%, In Play 22.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PHI @ BOS — 6:45 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jesús Luzardo vs Jarren Duran**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 13.1%** (fair odds +661)\n\n  * Jesús Luzardo: Zone 63.4%, Ball 36.6%\n  * Jarren Duran: Swing 27.8%, In Play 13.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CHC @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Ben Brown vs Drake Baldwin**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 68.8%** (fair odds -221)\n\n  * Ben Brown: Zone 31.2%, Ball 68.8%\n  * Drake Baldwin: Swing 40.0%, In Play 1.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### KC @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Anthony Kay vs Maikel Garcia**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Anthony Kay: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.3 mph\n  * Maikel Garcia: Swing 28.0%, In Play 13.9%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Kris Bubic vs Chase Meidroth**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.4%** (fair odds +510)\n\n  * Kris Bubic: Zone 60.7%, Ball 39.3%\n  * Chase Meidroth: Swing 28.9%, In Play 16.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Emmet Sheehan vs Jung Hoo Lee**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 57.9%** (fair odds -138)\n\n  * Emmet Sheehan: Zone 42.1%, Ball 57.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.9 mph\n  * Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 18.5%, In Play 5.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Thursday, May 14, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-14T15:59:19.885Z"
}