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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 13, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 13, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 13, 2026

May 12 Results: Strike Picks: 2/6 | Ball Picks: 6/7 | In Play Picks: 1/8

❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ✅ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ❌ Gunnar Henderson - Strike / ✅ TJ Friedl - Strike / ❌ Edouard Julien - In Play / ❌ Oneil Cruz - Strike / ✅ Jarren Duran - Strike / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ✅ George Springer - Ball / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Ball / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Ball / ❌ Maikel Garcia - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ✅ Byron Buxton - Ball / ❌ Jackson Merrill - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ✅ Joc Pederson - Ball / ❌ Jose Altuve - In Play / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Jung Hoo Lee - Strike

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Ball Picks

SD @ MIL: Jackson Merrill vs Jacob Misiorowski — 59.1% (fair odds -144) Misiorowski 59.1% ball rate, Merrill 75.0% swing tendency

SEA @ HOU: Brendan Donovan vs Lance McCullers Jr. — 60.0% (fair odds -150) Jr. 60.0% ball rate, Donovan 35.2% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

DET @ NYM: Juan Soto vs Framber Valdez — 38.4% (fair odds +161) Soto 38.4% in-play projection vs Valdez (93.2 mph Sinker) This might be favored to Soto's low data a smidge, but he's demonstrated a trend: he's going up ready to swing on pitch one. Valdez is a good spot for a swinger.

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

NYY @ BAL — 1:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Bradish vs Trent Grisham Projected: First Pitch Strike — 66.7% (fair odds -200)

  • Kyle Bradish: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.7 mph
  • Trent Grisham: Swing 16.0%, In Play 4.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Max Fried vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.9% (fair odds +492)

  • Max Fried: Zone 65.1%, Ball 34.9%
  • Taylor Ward: Swing 25.6%, In Play 16.9%

LAA @ CLE — 1:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Parker Messick vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 23.6% (fair odds +324)

  • Parker Messick: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.7 mph
  • Zach Neto: Swing 55.9%, In Play 23.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Reid Detmers vs Angel Martínez Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Reid Detmers: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Angel Martínez: Swing 25.0%, In Play 1.8%

WSH @ CIN — 6:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jake Irvin vs TJ Friedl Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.6% (fair odds -136)

  • Jake Irvin: Zone 63.4%, Ball 36.6%
  • TJ Friedl: Swing 9.8%, In Play 5.8%

PHI @ BOS — 6:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sonny Gray vs Trea Turner Projected: First Pitch Strike — 66.0% (fair odds -194)

  • Sonny Gray: Zone 76.3%, Ball 23.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.2 mph
  • Trea Turner: Swing 25.0%, In Play 10.3%

TB @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Dylan Cease vs Chandler Simpson Projected: First Pitch Ball — 56.1% (fair odds -128)

  • Dylan Cease: Zone 43.9%, Ball 56.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph
  • Chandler Simpson: Swing 18.1%, In Play 7.9%

DET @ NYM — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Framber Valdez vs Juan Soto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 38.4% (fair odds +161)

  • Framber Valdez: Zone 71.8%, Ball 28.2%
  • Juan Soto: Swing 33.3%, In Play 38.4%

CHC @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Shota Imanaga vs Mauricio Dubón Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Shota Imanaga: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
  • Mauricio Dubón: Swing 66.7%, In Play 5.4%

SD @ MIL — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs Jackson Merrill Projected: First Pitch Ball — 59.1% (fair odds -144)

  • Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 40.9%, Ball 59.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 100.5 mph
  • Jackson Merrill: Swing 75.0%, In Play 3.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael King vs Brice Turang Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

  • Michael King: Zone 60.9%, Ball 39.1%
  • Brice Turang: Swing 14.9%, In Play 2.6%

MIA @ MIN — 7:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Simeon Woods Richardson vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.0% (fair odds +669)

  • Simeon Woods Richardson: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 89.8 mph
  • Xavier Edwards: Swing 30.1%, In Play 13.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Max Meyer vs Byron Buxton Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.7% (fair odds +499)

  • Max Meyer: Zone 55.0%, Ball 45.0%
  • Byron Buxton: Swing 53.4%, In Play 16.7%

KC @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Seth Lugo vs Sam Antonacci Projected: First Pitch Strike — 65.9% (fair odds -193)

  • Seth Lugo: Zone 82.4%, Ball 17.6%
  • Sam Antonacci: Swing 14.3%, In Play 16.5%

ARI @ TEX — 8:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.6% (fair odds +468)

  • Kumar Rocker: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 35.8%, In Play 17.6%

SEA @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Lance McCullers Jr. vs Brendan Donovan Projected: First Pitch Ball — 60.0% (fair odds -150)

  • Lance McCullers Jr.: Zone 40.0%, Ball 60.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 88.6 mph
  • Brendan Donovan: Swing 35.2%, In Play 6.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Bryce Miller vs Jose Altuve Projected: First Pitch Ball — 52.4% (fair odds -110)

  • Bryce Miller: Zone 47.6%, Ball 52.4%
  • Jose Altuve: Swing 46.3%, In Play 15.0%

STL @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Nick Kurtz Projected: First Pitch In Play — 17.6% (fair odds +467)

  • Matthew Liberatore: Zone 75.7%, Ball 24.3%
  • Nick Kurtz: Swing 45.0%, In Play 17.6%

SF @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shohei Ohtani vs Jung Hoo Lee Projected: First Pitch Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

  • Shohei Ohtani: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.4 mph
  • Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 19.2%, In Play 6.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Robbie Ray vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.8% (fair odds +575)

  • Robbie Ray: Zone 57.5%, Ball 42.5%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 38.3%, In Play 14.8%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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