{
  "$type": "site.standard.document",
  "bskyPostRef": {
    "cid": "bafyreickljaqcqybycp75p2jihmhf56u74dwscfwzwspx7hmhvckwk6ouq",
    "uri": "at://did:plc:4gtoexavzutfsu6o3gozmuum/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlqljn5org32"
  },
  "coverImage": {
    "$type": "blob",
    "ref": {
      "$link": "bafkreih2imw4gv24dkpomq7sg3u4ue5n6m6brdi7pxw2apl5xas57jxuli"
    },
    "mimeType": "image/jpeg",
    "size": 565353
  },
  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 13, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/may-13-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-13T15:09:44.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 13, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 12 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 2/6 | Ball Picks: 6/7 | In Play Picks: 1/8\n>\n> ❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ✅ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ❌ Gunnar Henderson - Strike / ✅ TJ Friedl - Strike / ❌ Edouard Julien - In Play / ❌ Oneil Cruz - Strike / ✅ Jarren Duran - Strike / ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ✅ George Springer - Ball / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Ball / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Ball / ❌ Maikel Garcia - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Strike / ✅ Byron Buxton - Ball / ❌ Jackson Merrill - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ✅ Joc Pederson - Ball / ❌ Jose Altuve - In Play / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Jung Hoo Lee - Strike\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **SD @ MIL: Jackson Merrill vs Jacob Misiorowski — 59.1% (fair odds -144)**\n>  Misiorowski 59.1% ball rate, Merrill 75.0% swing tendency\n\n> **SEA @ HOU: Brendan Donovan vs Lance McCullers Jr. — 60.0% (fair odds -150)**\n>  Jr. 60.0% ball rate, Donovan 35.2% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **DET @ NYM: Juan Soto vs Framber Valdez — 38.4% (fair odds +161)**\n>  Soto 38.4% in-play projection vs Valdez (93.2 mph Sinker)\n> This might be favored to Soto's low data a smidge, but he's demonstrated a trend: he's going up ready to swing on pitch one. Valdez is a good spot for a swinger.\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### NYY @ BAL — 1:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Bradish vs Trent Grisham**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 66.7%** (fair odds -200)\n\n  * Kyle Bradish: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.7 mph\n  * Trent Grisham: Swing 16.0%, In Play 4.7%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Max Fried vs Taylor Ward**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.9%** (fair odds +492)\n\n  * Max Fried: Zone 65.1%, Ball 34.9%\n  * Taylor Ward: Swing 25.6%, In Play 16.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAA @ CLE — 1:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Parker Messick vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 23.6%** (fair odds +324)\n\n  * Parker Messick: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.7 mph\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 55.9%, In Play 23.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Reid Detmers vs Angel Martínez**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Reid Detmers: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%\n  * Angel Martínez: Swing 25.0%, In Play 1.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### WSH @ CIN — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jake Irvin vs TJ Friedl**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.6%** (fair odds -136)\n\n  * Jake Irvin: Zone 63.4%, Ball 36.6%\n  * TJ Friedl: Swing 9.8%, In Play 5.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PHI @ BOS — 6:45 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Sonny Gray vs Trea Turner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 66.0%** (fair odds -194)\n\n  * Sonny Gray: Zone 76.3%, Ball 23.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.2 mph\n  * Trea Turner: Swing 25.0%, In Play 10.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TB @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Dylan Cease vs Chandler Simpson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 56.1%** (fair odds -128)\n\n  * Dylan Cease: Zone 43.9%, Ball 56.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph\n  * Chandler Simpson: Swing 18.1%, In Play 7.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### DET @ NYM — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Framber Valdez vs Juan Soto**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 38.4%** (fair odds +161)\n\n  * Framber Valdez: Zone 71.8%, Ball 28.2%\n  * Juan Soto: Swing 33.3%, In Play 38.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CHC @ ATL — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Shota Imanaga vs Mauricio Dubón**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Shota Imanaga: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%\n  * Mauricio Dubón: Swing 66.7%, In Play 5.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SD @ MIL — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs Jackson Merrill**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 59.1%** (fair odds -144)\n\n  * Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 40.9%, Ball 59.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 100.5 mph\n  * Jackson Merrill: Swing 75.0%, In Play 3.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael King vs Brice Turang**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 58.3%** (fair odds -140)\n\n  * Michael King: Zone 60.9%, Ball 39.1%\n  * Brice Turang: Swing 14.9%, In Play 2.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIA @ MIN — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Simeon Woods Richardson vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 13.0%** (fair odds +669)\n\n  * Simeon Woods Richardson: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 89.8 mph\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 30.1%, In Play 13.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Max Meyer vs Byron Buxton**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.7%** (fair odds +499)\n\n  * Max Meyer: Zone 55.0%, Ball 45.0%\n  * Byron Buxton: Swing 53.4%, In Play 16.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### KC @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Seth Lugo vs Sam Antonacci**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 65.9%** (fair odds -193)\n\n  * Seth Lugo: Zone 82.4%, Ball 17.6%\n  * Sam Antonacci: Swing 14.3%, In Play 16.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ARI @ TEX — 8:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kumar Rocker vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.6%** (fair odds +468)\n\n  * Kumar Rocker: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.2 mph\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 35.8%, In Play 17.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SEA @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Lance McCullers Jr. vs Brendan Donovan**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 60.0%** (fair odds -150)\n\n  * Lance McCullers Jr.: Zone 40.0%, Ball 60.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 88.6 mph\n  * Brendan Donovan: Swing 35.2%, In Play 6.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Bryce Miller vs Jose Altuve**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 52.4%** (fair odds -110)\n\n  * Bryce Miller: Zone 47.6%, Ball 52.4%\n  * Jose Altuve: Swing 46.3%, In Play 15.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### STL @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Matthew Liberatore vs Nick Kurtz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 17.6%** (fair odds +467)\n\n  * Matthew Liberatore: Zone 75.7%, Ball 24.3%\n  * Nick Kurtz: Swing 45.0%, In Play 17.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Shohei Ohtani vs Jung Hoo Lee**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.4 mph\n  * Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 19.2%, In Play 6.7%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Robbie Ray vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.8%** (fair odds +575)\n\n  * Robbie Ray: Zone 57.5%, Ball 42.5%\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 38.3%, In Play 14.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Wednesday, May 13, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-13T15:09:45.011Z"
}